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Kmlwx

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  1. Kmlwx
    One unscientific note on the MCS up in PA - previous model runs yesterday had that coming through shaped like a long NW-SE stretching "arm." In reality it looks like a reverse L shape. Had that horizontal part of the L been straight downward like in the prior model forecasts, it likely would have been a closer call for parts of our area. Let's see how the afternoon plays out in terms of instability etc. I'm not "out" but I have tempered my expectations until I see a legit/more certain threat.
  2. Kmlwx
    Entirely possible some of us get completely missed today. The NAM nest is a snoozefest for many of us. The 6z HRRR had the good line tonight for mainly southern portions of the area it seemed. It will all come down to how the upstream activity develops and propagates. I sound like a winter weather weenie...but it'll ultimately come down to nowcasting. I'm doubtful ANY model is going to 100% nail the development and movement of any MCS coming from the W or SW
  3. Kmlwx
    The 12z runs of the NSSL-MPAS triplets all have a robust MCS/line coming through Fri night into Sat AM.
  4. Kmlwx
    Also - spam posting but oh well... Not saying it WILL happen - but some of our higher end days have come when there's a higher risk a day or two ahead to our west/NW and then SPC adjusts in real time to extend the threat into our region. If instability doesn't wane too much after dark tomorrow night - I think the overnight period into early Sat AM could be some really rough weather. Again...NOT the same setup but remember June 2012 I think the day before we had a 5%... ETA: Yes...DC proper didn't even have a slight risk on the DAY 1 1630z outlook that day. Talk about "that escalated quickly"
  5. Kmlwx
    One mostly non-scientific thing is we tend to have "streaks" So a cluster of 2 days of decent severe threat would be fitting with EML influence. As @Eskimo Joe has said for years...the EML/MLLRs really can allow for more wiggle room in the other parameters. Also...it could be the start of a stretch when maybe we get some more storm events. Not saying back-to-back but perhaps not going weeks between storm threats.
  6. Kmlwx
    The complex that arrives after dark reminds me of a way toned down June 2012 lol. Obviously temps nowhere close to that. But a line surging across the mountains.
  7. Kmlwx
    Many of the CAMs are pretty underwhelming in terms of sim reflectivity. It will all be a question of whether there is enough forcing and the cap being weak enough to break. I still think the thoughts of the threat being isolated but intense are solid. Wherever a cell develops/tracks could get really hefty hail... I think for the majority of the area this could be a dud. The other thing I saw at least one model showing was a pretty good "leftover" line coming into the area Saturday AM from the west.
  8. Kmlwx
    My guess is WaPo has some sort of partnership with the provider (Foreca) and the editing staff forces them to use it. I highly doubt that Ian, for example would use that given his own choice. I would even take the HRRR on one of it's bust days over a radar tool like that.
  9. Kmlwx
    The CWG "forecast radar" should really not be shown. It's garbage. It doesn't seem to take into effect the forward speed of storms. If you look at it right now, for example - it indicates the storms/rain in Southern Maryland are just going to rocket northward magically. It also doesn't morph the storms realistically at all...it just takes a snapshot and a general motion and essentially copy and pastes it a increments.
  10. Kmlwx
    It seems to have that pocket of upper 70s dewpoints to the south of DC in the area surrounding the Tidal Potomac. The dewpoints outside of that little pocket seem more realistic - and subsequently CAPE values seem more realistic as well (and even then may still be on the high side.
  11. Kmlwx
    I'll go with the under lol...by a lot.
  12. Kmlwx
    If there is in fact morning activity on Friday, it could be one of those days where the morning stuff lays down boundaries to serve as focuses for afternoon storms to trigger. I wonder if Friday is an example of a type of day where coverage may be quite low but the storms that do form will have A LOT of energy all to themselves. Narrow swath of serious hail under a supercell sort of day? It's seeming like by Saturday the front might be too far beyond most of us to serve as a 2nd severe day - maybe for eastern areas?
  13. Kmlwx
    For the higher terrain this sort of reminds me of June 2006 in my area.
  14. Kmlwx
    Quite a bit of lightning with the activity to the SW of CHO.
  15. Kmlwx
    The CFS weeklies with this look could be interesting for us
  16. Kmlwx
    Cherry picked but just for lulz - it's one of those panels from the NCAR AI convective site. That site seemingly tends to run overly robust to say the least. https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ
  17. Kmlwx
    Would fit well with our little local "tornado alley" down near EZF and across the bay into the La Plata/Southern Maryland area. Seems some of the guidance (not that it matters much at this range) wants to push the main threat to our south. That AI convective NCAR page is honking a bit for the Fri-->Sat timeframe though.
  18. Kmlwx
    If nothing else - instability looks better than prior events so far this year. Still so far out - we'll see. (my famous two words)
  19. Kmlwx
    Still out in the long range...but the GFS would seem to suggest the doldrums may be coming to an end. CIPS is also starting to latch onto increased severe potential out beyond 200 hours. The 06z GFS run had decent parameters on SEVERAL days out in the long range.
  20. Kmlwx
    I have one eye on the May 17-18 time period. GFS has periodically been showing decent parameters and shear. But of course...it's WAY out there in fantasy range.
  21. Kmlwx
    Could be a a bit of both. But in my 33 years of living in the area (stints in different spots but mostly the same spot near Colesville, MD) I have seen hail larger than pea size ZERO times....in 33 years. The largest hail I've ever seen at any location was maybe marble sized and it was not at my normal home location. So what's the explanation for Colesville, MD lacking hail? Willing to run with the bay influence that Eskimo Joe mentioned...but I'd venture a guess that if you were to take a similar sized area as "Baltimore City" proper, you'd probably find pretty similar hail statistics in the general DC/Baltimore region. Of course, there will likely be anomalies here or there but on average I'd bet it's similar region wide.
  22. Kmlwx
    Adding...of course if you compare all areas vs your tiny area. You're going to get a sense that hail is "tons more common" but you need to compare your slice of land to a similar sized plot to get any accurate apples to apples comparison.
  23. Kmlwx
    Large hail is a rare event in ANY given location. You're biased because it's your backyard. Think about why the SPC probabilities are "within 25 miles of a point" The probs are never "damaging wind at your exact location" Even factoring in the city boundaries, it is not a lot of geographical space.
  24. Kmlwx
    40% chance of t'storm watch.
  25. Kmlwx
    The storm that went over MBY cooled me down from 85ish down to 66. It's already back up to 70 now with the sun back out. Dewpoint is steamy...
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