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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Both Sat/Sun seem to favor south of the Potomac. But some cells do make it ahead of the main line on that NAM nest run. These things are super tricky to forecast...H5 would seem to argue the bend further south of us is real.
  2. Kmlwx
    Radar estimates well over an inch here. Probably closer to 1.5
  3. Kmlwx
    PWS lightning count is 562 for the day so far!
  4. Kmlwx
    Was mentioned in the obs thread but yes - not even a marginal risk, no mesoscale discussion - what an overperformer! Not seeing any LSRs yet - but assuming some lagged ones might pop up. I'd say this is a solid storm day given the silence from the SPC.
  5. Kmlwx
    You'll be swept away with a nice cold one!
  6. Kmlwx
    The HRRR performed REALLY well today IMO. Several runs in a row had a big cell type signature going right through Central Maryland. More like a line segment - but certainly a big punch for a non SPC risk day. This either means we will now pay for this with several misses in the next few days...or we are going on a hot streak for severe. Won't know until it's done
  7. Kmlwx
    Area of rotation now near South Laurel on the TBWI radar. Good little "notch"
  8. Kmlwx
    I didn't add the rain gauge to my PWS - too many trees for it to be sited well. Very good downpour and a lightning strike that ENTLN seems to have placed near Springbrook HS. Huge thunder following it.
  9. Kmlwx
    The Beltsville storm is going to get a TOR warn I bet. It looks similar to the HoCo cell.
  10. Kmlwx
    Also an area that looks like it may try to spin near Beltsville/Calverton
  11. Kmlwx
    Areas of rotation showing up - TOR warn for HoCo.
  12. Kmlwx
    Hoping it's just a one scan glitch and not a radar problem from the pedestal replacement....but the 20:12 0.5 scan has a big "pacman" style chunk taken out of the scan on the eastern side of the radar.
  13. Kmlwx
    HRRR did a pretty good job IMBY today. I think it was a little too weak on the northern end (N Central Maryland and similar). Still dumping here! Should lead to some improvement on the drought map update next week! We always seem to do well on non-outlooked storms days!
  14. Kmlwx
    Likely result is we fail on all three lol
  15. Kmlwx
    Storms moving over the core of the worst drought conditions on the Drought Monitor map. Every little bit helps.
  16. Kmlwx
    Transient small hail indicator on the cell developing near Kensington. Heading ENE.
  17. Kmlwx
    There's been some HRRR runs that have had a decent looking cell going across Central MD and then over to the Bay. So far, looks like updrafts have struggled - to be expected on a not even marginal risk day - thankful for any rain that can move overhead though.
  18. Kmlwx
    And of course there's always exceptions to the nighttime rule. We've had plenty of prolific lightning producers overnight that aren't severe - but could qualify if lightning was a determining factor. I guess it will depend on whether the instability becomes elevated in the overnight period. At least we have some days to track.
  19. Kmlwx
    That MCS on the 12km NAM for Saturday favors Virginia heavily. Also, the timing for the Sunday PM stuff seems to be overnight on that run - not ideal for daytime heating but we'll see how it trends.
  20. Kmlwx
    KLWX is back online for those that had not noticed. Right on schedule.
  21. Kmlwx
    That's probably the kiss of death for the threat
  22. Kmlwx
    GFS has much less instability for the same time period. We'll see how the modeling coverages Saturday into Sunday. If nothing else it's more chances at thunder and lightning to at least spice up the boring weather!
  23. Kmlwx
    18z 12km NAM has some decent parameters flowing in on Sunday evening. But...it's also the NAM at range.
  24. Kmlwx
    June 29, 2012 is probably not going to see a parallel here for YEARS.
  25. Kmlwx
    Interesting mention for severe potential in the morning AFD from LWX.
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