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Kmlwx

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  1. Kmlwx
    FV3 (0z run) looks abysmal for storm chances for many this afternoon. ARW and ARW2 look a bit better but not spectacular. HRDPS looks splotchy but passable for now. Yet another day of model solutions all over the map.
  2. Kmlwx
    Worth noting that as usual, the HRRR is mixing dews down into the lower to mid 60s in many areas this afternoon. NAM nest (6z run, at least) keeps most areas in the 70+ range. Despite this, the HRRR still fires t'storms across the area but without the supercharged UH swath across the Central Maryland area. I could be wrong, of course - but given the moist airmass in place - I really don't think we are going to mix down 10 degrees on the dews. My PWS (accuracy questionable, of course) is showing a dew of 74.5 right now. It may come down some - but I think 68-70 is far more likely when storms fire versus 62 as shown on the HRRR. We could still fail from a stable layer, lack of forcing, or countless other ways - but I like our chances better today as a whole than yesterday.
  3. Kmlwx
    I honestly just want to see if we can do an region-wide linear storm mode ever again. I know we've had some stuff blow up south of the area that's been pretty widespread - but I just miss the days of a squall (even if not over severe limits) going from NW to SE or W to E across the entire area. Splotchy severe seems to be the reigning champion here for a while.
  4. Kmlwx
    I saw some sunny breaks this morning while on the road. Pesky patch of clouds...let's see how this plays out.
  5. Kmlwx
    Given that I won't be at home during that time - mark my words it will happen now.
  6. Kmlwx
    Can't believe I forgot about that one - would tend to agree.
  7. Kmlwx
    Really June 2012 may have been the last truly area-wide significant severe event. Any one location has had other occurrences since then (would have to look at specific dates) - maybe 2016 had a few good area-wide events?
  8. Kmlwx
    Seems we will continue to wait for our once in a decade (or longer) alignment of EML, shear etc. I'd even settle for a non-EML robust cold pool event.
  9. Kmlwx
    Strong source of lift (ex: defined frontal passage) likely would have made up for poor mid-level lapse rates - but seems today we have neither of those
  10. Kmlwx
    I haven't looked at any soundings - but given the high SBCAPE - I'd assume it's a cap or not a defined source of lift. Lame day so far.
  11. Kmlwx
    Yeah - it's clear on radar but it doesn't seem like an outflow boundary - interesting!
  12. Kmlwx
    Let's hope it's right
  13. Kmlwx
    Poured for a few mins at the Baysox game. Looks like many places are getting wet!
  14. Kmlwx
    Meso discussion is about what would be expected. It's SOUPY out there. Definitely back to typical DC summer conditions.
  15. Kmlwx
    and the slight risk is gone. I really hate to be one to criticize SPC...but the other day they added a hatched hail area and subsequently removed it. Today they have us in marginal, bump us to slight, and then trim the slight way back again. With more and more people directly consuming SPC outlooks...we can no longer make the excuse of "it's not even for public eyes unless they go looking for it" - this is very public knowledge now. They should have just kept us at marginal all the way until confidence was higher. Rant over...but this is 2nd time in recent days/weeks.
  16. Kmlwx
    HRRR seems to think the storms will make it roughly to the Chesapeake before petering out. FV3 (12z run) really doesn't have much for most of us. It's still anyone's guess...but I think the SPC expansion of the slight risk into the area is probably wise. It's pretty cloudy here in Central Maryland - but certainly moist...73+ degrees for the dewpoint IMBY right now. I'm guessing we will overperform simply because I have baseball tickets for tonight
  17. Kmlwx
    The guidance is all over the place for both today and tomorrow. Pretty much every solution portrayed depending on which model you look at. Could be anything from getting blanked (for the most part) both days, to flush hits both days (maybe even multiple times).
  18. Kmlwx
    Just a cursory glance at the terrain map and map in general for that area - a few things grab my attention - 1) Much less developed/urban sprawl areas versus other suburban areas closer in. 2) Triadelphia Reservoir/Patuxent River in that area 3) Sort of evenly split distance between the city center of Baltimore/DC (think heat islands). Have to wonder if the UHI plays a role...totally speculative - but if you have one area warmer than others one would assume there could be some microclimate stuff going on like eddies of warmer areas and such.
  19. Kmlwx
    ^^ Wow...obviously two isn't enough of a sample size - but that's suggestive that there *could* be some sort of terrain or microscale influence there to get spin going. At least while I was watching/tracking during the storms earlier - that rotation formed pretty quick - granted I wasn't really looking at elevated tilts.
  20. Kmlwx
    The 48hr HRRR!
  21. Kmlwx
    I said earlier...result of today will either be that we pay with painful misses for a while...or we are on a temporary heater. Given the recent boring weather, and a hunch feeling...I do wonder if we string together a solid streak of storm days.
  22. Kmlwx
    The 18z NAM kept me largely dry except for a few showers...and of course I bought tickets for the Baysox game tomorrow evening...fitting that the NAM seems to want to spoil that. The 12km NAM even looks solid.
  23. Kmlwx
    After today I'm almost inclined to use the HRRR as my "first guess" for both days - it really did pretty well on this morning's runs for this afternoon/evening.
  24. Kmlwx
    Both Sat/Sun seem to favor south of the Potomac. But some cells do make it ahead of the main line on that NAM nest run. These things are super tricky to forecast...H5 would seem to argue the bend further south of us is real.
  25. Kmlwx
    Radar estimates well over an inch here. Probably closer to 1.5
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