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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Could be terrain/radar interactions - but they do seem to be pulsing down a bit. Not to say they can't cycle back up as they come off the terrain! Looking at least semi more like a "line" even if broken.
  2. Kmlwx
    1 inch hail LSR from an NWS employee on the Gore cell.
  3. Kmlwx
    Reminder if you're using GR2AE to put in the storm motion on the toolbar to get a bit more accurate hail markers and such. That is a heck of a cell as is - guessing with the slow storm motions it may collapse or at least cycle down at times - it may gust out/become outflow dominant before too long. Then we'd be left hoping for more development along the outflow. But we'll see.
  4. Kmlwx
    That cell now is nearing 50kft echo tops.
  5. Kmlwx
    I only deal in Schrute Bucks.
  6. Kmlwx
    The cell nearing Gore, VA has the kidney bean look on radar. ETA: It's also looking like it's going to go through my "Kmlwx Box" (my version of the Hebert Boxes) near/just north of Winchester. Let's see if my old wives tale/anecdotes hold up.
  7. Kmlwx
    I went from being concerned about not enough southerly trajectory for the Romney cells to now being concerned about too much. Typical. That said - I also do not hate the radar - it's a bit less "gappy" than before but still some gaps in there. @H2O - I swear if you go outside and yell at the cloud again I'm going to be pissed.
  8. Kmlwx
    Keyser cell from earlier is now nearing Romney. I'm not mad at that trajectory thus far. Further, it seems like the stuff down near Petersburg/Lost City etc has storm tracks a little north of east. Meet in the middle for a biblical severe event in the metro area?!
  9. Kmlwx
    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1545 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2023 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 141802Z - 142030Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED. DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVOLVING EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN PA INTO EASTERN WV AND WESTERN VA THIS AFTERNOON -- WHERE A 1-INCH HAIL REPORT OCCURRED EARLIER. DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY SPREAD/DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHERE A PLUME OF DIURNALLY STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS DEVELOPING. GIVEN AROUND 30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT, MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED/SPORADIC FOR A WATCH. ..WEINMAN/BUNTING.. 07/14/2023 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... They said "sporadic"
  10. Kmlwx
    Lots of lightning on the Harrisonburg area cell(s)
  11. Kmlwx
    I'm surprised there is no pity meso discussion out yet. Seems some days we get them while it's still clear as day on radar - others we go straight into a severe thunderstorm watch. Would think there'd at least be one out saying "sporadic nature will probably preclude the need for a watch. Nonetheless trends will be monitored"
  12. Kmlwx
    Still is a bit north for my liking, but the cell at the tail end of the northern cluster (near Keyser) seems like an okay trajectory for taking it into the DC area. Needs more of a southernly component to that east motion, though. I'd feel better if that area between the Keyser cell and the cells near Petersburg, WV filled in. Wishful thinking!
  13. Kmlwx
    Side note - I love the DC area split you can already see setting up on radar.
  14. Kmlwx
    Agreed. Though I think one could argue that in some of those "random" events - it may not even be clear until there's actively a storm spewing out high-end wind damage in a relatively narrow swath. That one happened to be REALLY well-centered for a high population area - and I think it was fairly well forecasted by SPC.
  15. Kmlwx
    So many in the public were screaming about "we had no warning" on that one. AFD had "big tstms" mentioned that morning, SPC had added a 30% wind area for us, and we had a severe watch and warnings as the wind core came through. Sometimes the average Joe can be really ridiculous.
  16. Kmlwx
    I know it's like my favorite word on here - but ANECDOTALLY - I've found that in many "significant severe" events locally - at least for MBY - if we can get a really good wind core or line to go through roughly Winchester - the odds are pretty good for MBY. I like the current radar trends but the threat for stuff dying on approach is still high in my mind. July 25, 2010 comes to mind very readily - that was a big time power outage producer in the area.
  17. Kmlwx
    Just like in prior days - there is a relative min of instability over the area. Hoping that DCAPE and other parameters can increase locally - otherwise this is going to be cells dying as they approach.
  18. Kmlwx
    Derecho incoming. That cell will grow upscale and make a biblical cold pool.
  19. Kmlwx
    Agreed. Though...they do seem to do well once storms are already formed. the problem is....in this DC/Baltimore area - this typically is a 1-3 hour window and by the time the models fully "see" the real picture - the storms are either overhead or even east of us already It's often a case where our jokes like "It will get it right 2 days after the storm" kind of are correct.
  20. Kmlwx
    Almost 9pm and still 84.7 even outside of the UHI. Dewpoint 73+. Terrible. Still feels awful when stepping outside - and the 2nd floor of the house is 82.5 in spots (poor A/C coverage up there + a flat roof and no attic)
  21. Kmlwx
    Mesoanalysis actually has semi-decent mid-level lapse rates over the area
  22. Kmlwx
    Marginal risk for Friday. I'm also intrigued - the past two runs of the longer range GFS are hinting at some EML action for late next week. Euro is less enthusiastic - but it's at least something to keep an eye on. Some super long range (300hr+) runs in the past few days hinted at this as well (GFS) but it's kind of vanished and returned with model inconsistency.
  23. Kmlwx
    Mean looking sky in Odenton, MD right now - but nothing severe.
  24. Kmlwx
    The 12z FV3 hi-res is showing areas north of the Potomac being favored until the line gets to just past DC and then favoring south and east. A bit of a screw zone in between near Anne Arundel Co and then over to the northern half of the eastern shore. Still...in the realm of model runs it looks pretty good. 12z ARW is a messy evolution with junky stuff developing before any solid line can form. 12z ARW2 favors northern Maryland into PA with a solid line.
  25. Kmlwx
    12z runs are continuing to look good. NAM nest blows up some convection over the bay relatively early which then seems to mute the activity for the afternoon - but it's still pretty good. 12z HRRR still on board with a more or less solid line of convection. The MPAS models from NSSL also look quite good.
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