Kmlwx

My less direct way of saying "read more, post less" But now not so subtle lol. I just went back and checked... The map that the person posted was the Euro ensemble control... Not even the OP

Except in a few cases - as soon as somebody starts saying things like "my vast years of knowledge" I know to stop taking them seriously. The true ones that have years of experience don't flaunt them overtly like that. PSU, Bob Chill and all of the degreed mets on here don't flaunt "I'm better than you because I have decades of observation" Take notes certain people... It's like somebody simply saying as a rebuttal "I've done my research" RMPL

The OP Euro is NOT the same as the Euro Control...if that's indeed what you posted. Euro control is a single member of the ensembles with no perturbed conditions initially. It's NOT the OP Euro and has little value other than being a single member of the EC ENS ETA: You literally did post the Euro ensemble control member. Not even the OP Euro run... I went back and looked. It's a single ensemble member.

Big storms typically wait until the NAO is on the rebound towards neutral or positive

It's Ji...

This is not unique to this area. People just suck nationwide or even globally. It's very sad. Back on topic though....imagine if that tropical system and that digging trough were configured a bit differently lol

It may be worth telling Ashley (I can as well) that Alan Henney (a local news/crime follower) and I run a Zello group dedicated to local breaking news and crime (as it happens essentially). It's much more focused on police/fire - but there could be some crossover there. We don't do any forwarding to authorities that much - but many of the members that monitor the channel are local reporters (freelance or pro) and many have some connection to local public safety. We have several hundred "members" - the channel is PW protected as well to prevent "riff raff" from joining. I don't think we would want to merge the groups of course - but it may be a way to coordinate or work together.

Will they QC the reports? I can only imagine what this will lead to if a "friend of a friend" messages that they see a "tornado" and somebody reposts that....90% chance it's scud or other cloud phenomenon.

Count me in to help in whatever way is needed. I'm in Montgomery County - but it sounds like this would not be limited to PG?

BWI: 8.2" DCA: 5.5" IAD: 12.2" RIC: 1.5" Tiebreaker SBY: 1.0"

There's also been some hints at some sort of big storm system (maybe tropical in origin?) going well off the coast or perhaps closer-in...but obviously it could just be the GFS doing it's weird super long range stuff.

A few runs have had a signal in that timeframe recently! Let's will this one in!

Recall that in 2017, I believe in the DC area it was like 80%+ total. This will be like 30% locally. So whatever perceived darkness people felt here (I was in SC for that) - it will be much less than that.

Peak is 1:18pm for Colesville.

Might be discernable to a solar sensor - not sure it'll be detectable in dreary conditions to the naked eye here in Maryland. Perhaps down in Texas and similar spots. Less than 50% will be obscured here. Even in places like Texas - it won't be a pitch black darkness eclipse since part of the disk will still be uncovered (ring of fire).

Yup...options are to watch online, miss it, or try to drive/fly/travel to a clearer area.

There is some glimmer of hope on the 6z GFS for the DC area. The problem is the clouds on that run clear out a bit too late (21z looks decent) - but by then the eclipse will be over.

Latest GFS runs do *not* look promising for being able to observe this locally, unfortunately. Heck..the GFS even gets a little tongue of supercell composite parameters up into our SE zones.

Amazon had plenty in stock as of the other day - maybe not now...

Wait until the April 2024 one. Annual Eclipses never get pitch black. Still cool and such - but probably not worth the crowds. Somebody describe Annular Eclipses as similar to going to see your favorite band and leaving after the support band before your band ever takes the stage.

Didn't see a dedicated thread - so this may have been mentioned in the obs or banter threads. October 14th will feature a partial annual solar eclipse in our area. A full-on annual eclipse will be visible in other parts of the country. Too far out to estimate cloud cover at this time but GFS is promising for having the sun out that day at this range. I'll be trying to get a few crude pics with my telescope and solar filter! Don't forget to use solar filter glasses if you're viewing it - not safe without! Maximum IMBY will be around 1:18pm ET that day.

DCA gusted to 30 knots.

Also - the stuff over the KDOX radar area has more convective looks to it. Wouldn't be surprised if there are some brief spinnys or gustnados with that stuff.

Will certainly be interesting to see how the wind forecasts fare. On one hand, the storm is weakening...but there is still that pressure gradient and the system will be getting closer.

KDOX radar and the eastern side of the KLWX radar scope seems to support heavy rain incoming in the coming hours. We'll see how it rotates in and if it sustains.