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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    I just barely made it into the watch in terms of counties.
  2. Kmlwx
    Already storming E of 95 in many spots.
  3. Kmlwx
    I somehow never realized there is a mesoanalysis ARCHIVE! https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/ma_archive/ That's some decent fun going through our big events. Seems like some imagery is missing but there's enough there to have some fun for weather nerds.
  4. Kmlwx
    Pretty strong CAPE already indicated for this early hour on SPC mesoanalysis - core of it it suns from NE Maryland down to the Potomac, essentially over the Bay.
  5. Kmlwx
    Hope you miss out on the potential 100 degree weather down there!
  6. Kmlwx
    Which beach are you at? I'm thinking MBY will be a snoozer today.
  7. Kmlwx
    Much of the guidance is almost nothing if you are west of I-95 in most of the area. FV3 Hi-res is still decent. But east seems to be very much favored today.
  8. Kmlwx
    0z HRRR does it's usual thing of bringing dews way down - even into the lower 60s for some tomorrow afternoon. The 18z NAM had richer moisture as usual. Despite that, the HRRR does deliver some storms but it looks fairly garden variety.
  9. Kmlwx
    12z NAM nest goes kind of bonkers for parts of the area tomorrow afternoon - even has intense UH tracks over parts of the area. The other guidance is less impressive...but the FV3 is pretty good too.
  10. Kmlwx
    Greaaaaat - naturally it happens as we are exiting the climo hottest period lol.
  11. Kmlwx
    PBZ radar is cool to watch. You can see the outflow trying to outrun the storms. Outflow seems to be heading almost due south despite the storms trying to pull more easterly - they keep being tugged along with the outflow.
  12. Kmlwx
    It also seems to interact with the activity over WV which seems to "aid" in killing off the line. Certainly the line still looks robust for right now.
  13. Kmlwx
    0z HRRR kills off most of the activity for much of our area except for NE Maryland as LWX has been indicating.
  14. Kmlwx
    If it's easy - I'm not convinced the storms will make it here with much else than showers. But - some of the models do have something coming through.
  15. Kmlwx
    Hang on - coming right up https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PROBSEVERE
  16. Kmlwx
    Also, in addition to not having the triple digit heat that June 2012 had, this will be arriving substantially later. In fact, it will probably arrive so late that it makes little sense to "stay up" for the storms...I'll set an alarm for 2am perhaps and see how things look. I do like the look of the stuff over western Ohio - based on the H5 flow I'd think that would be more likely to be our stuff versus the NW PA stuff.
  17. Kmlwx
    Not anything near as intense as June 2012 - but this is the kind of event where MAYBE some of us get surprised. Models can really struggle sometimes with eastern extent of a threat in a setup like this. It will be fighting the complete opposite of peak heating by the time it gets here - but I'll be watching.
  18. Kmlwx
    Especially the MPAS runs on the NSSL site.
  19. Kmlwx
    I thought its was somewhat "odd" that the 3am discussion cited the 12z guidance - by that time the 18z and 0z should have been out. I guess maybe the 0z wouldn't have made it in. Ah well.
  20. Kmlwx
    Means nothing this far out...but the 0z and 6z GFS have a tropical system off the east coast in the super long range.
  21. Kmlwx
    The HRRR is quite stormy for the overnight period. The overnight nature probably means limited severe threat, however. These nocturnal storms tend to be prolific lightning producers when the atmosphere is humid, though.
  22. Kmlwx
    Despite no severe criteria being met in MBY - that was a lot of fun to track and watch the evolution. I would call yesterday a win. Lots of places got some much needed drinks for the grass and there was some nice thunder and lightning even if the storms were sub-severe for many. Good, widespread storm day.
  23. Kmlwx
    The GFS tries to get some upper 40s dewpoints into the area next weekend.
  24. Kmlwx
    You'd have hit an inch if you had not yelled last time...
  25. Kmlwx
    We've had less LSRs on severe thunderstorm watch days. I think this could have been given a watch. But of course - it was harder to say earlier. The dewpoints were juicy today + some good heat.
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