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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    The low clouds almost show up like CAD.
  2. Kmlwx
    I am angling to get out of work early...hope we don't start seeing radar blowing up too early. Because getting out prior to 3:30 is looking like a losing battle...unless by some miracle my firm decides to be lenient with liberal leave or something. I've messaged as best as I could to the powers that be (I'm the company weather person lol)
  3. Kmlwx
    Agreed - though it seemed like it was super "on the fly" in terms of how the upgrade happened. Wonder if that played a role - and up until the bitter end it seemed like there was low confidence in the intense strength being maintained this far east.
  4. Kmlwx
    As others have said - it's probable that given the synoptic forcing for later - we don't need extreme instability. I think the clearing of the low junk essentially is more of a determining factor as to whether we get something that we talk about for years versus a decent storm/iso severe day. Of course, microscale stuff could still lead to people getting missed (as is always the case) - but a total dud seems nearly off the table at this point.
  5. Kmlwx
    We've gotta figure out where we are on the scale Some might argue we're at 3 but maybe we are close to a 4?!
  6. Kmlwx
    Worth noting that if you animate that - all of the low clouds over the metro area appear to be just low clouds - may be easy to burn those off as long as clouds to the west don't come in to complicate things.
  7. Kmlwx
    That chase area tends to do very well!
  8. Kmlwx
    Several higher end events I think have. BUT - like mentioned above it has to clear out soon enough and of course every other factor can't go wrong either. No massively high mid level lapse rates with this it seems - so failure modes are still very real
  9. Kmlwx
    There are some cases when morning showers or convection (if it clears early enough) can actually juice up dew points and also lay down boundaries to enhance later activity. But it's always a game of balance.
  10. Kmlwx
    We have to strive to get this thread as active as this place gets 12 hours before a 30+ inch snowstorm.
  11. Kmlwx
    I'm tentatively in - parameters look pretty good for this region...our usual suspect (potential morning spoilage) will of course be in play. Won't know for sure my "in or out" status until that becomes more clear tomorrow. But I like where things stand for some excitement in the region. I love how this stuff tends to happen either when I'm out of the area or going to be in the office. Wish Mother Nature would hold off until my WFH days... Sent my weather email to the interested folks at work...maybe they'll let us WFH tomorrow afternoon but I doubt it.
  12. Kmlwx
    Some nice UH swaths over the area for Monday on that 12z NAM nest run.
  13. Kmlwx
    "couple of tornadoes" or "isolated tornadoes" are such blanket terms. It's those super rare times when you see "significant tornadoes" or "isolated strong tornado" that your ears perk up.
  14. Kmlwx
    It's funny because the earlier part of the same discussion is like "confidence continues increase"
  15. Kmlwx
    Not much change to the SPC outlook or the LWX AFD. Too early for the details CIPS looks decent.
  16. Kmlwx
    Next chance at some stronger storms - The upper trough will continue east across the Midwest and into the Northeast Days 6-7/Sun-Mon. Some severe potential may continue over parts of the Mid-MS/OH Valley vicinity on Day 6/Sun and into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Day 7/Mon. Severe potential will be influenced by previous days' convection and the timing of the upper trough and surface front. Currently, forecast guidance handles the evolution of these features quite differently beyond Day 5/Sat, and too much uncertainty exists to delineate 15 percent severe probabilities. However, probabilities may be needed somewhere across the Midwest to the middle/upper portions of the Atlantic coast in the Sun/Mon time frame in subsequent outlooks, depending on trends in forecast guidance.
  17. Kmlwx
    Super long range GFS at 12z looks like potential fun coming up from the Carolinas hehe
  18. Kmlwx
    That's really impressive in the post tree massacre (the companies sheering off a ton of trees near power lines) era.
  19. Kmlwx
    I'll say "consolation prize" for missing two days of storms back home...but beach storms are awesome usually.
  20. Kmlwx
    Right on the DE/MD border (North Ocean City) and that clouds look WICKED right now. Will upload when I can. Hoping I got some good shots with the S23.
  21. Kmlwx
    I was not in the area today.... Supposedly a tree fell on the house across the street from my parent's house. Will see the damage on Sunday.
  22. Kmlwx
    I'm right there with you. It's mostly evolving just as much of the guidance had been predicting with a focus S/E of DC. Looking more longer range - GFS is trying to signal (for multiple runs) Something in the first day or two of August with beefy parameters. Way too far out for now...but CIPS has also been lighting up in the 96-120hr frames. The super long range CIPS quiets down substantially - probably indicates some larger cold front to clear out the juice.
  23. Kmlwx
    I would tend to agree - and most guidance agreed overnight and this morning as well. Thursday already has the slight - maybe we can cash in.
  24. Kmlwx
    There's a diffuse boundary to the west of the existing storms. That will be something to watch. This is from the TIAD radar.
  25. Kmlwx
    We might have to hope a boundary can set off some storms for folks W of I-95
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