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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    14z HRRR looks good again for perhaps DC proper and then east to and across the bay. Seems it has consistently really "liked" Anne Arundel County.
  2. Kmlwx
    Slight risk includes the metro area on the 9am update.
  3. Kmlwx
    I'm starting to be "in" on a sneaky "lone ranger" kind of cell in the area this PM. 11z HRRR continues the idea of some training but also jumps on board with the idea of a cell blowing up and being the "dominant" one. It starts in NoVA but quickly intensifies and exits into the Bay in or around Anne Arundel County.
  4. Kmlwx
    The 0z MPAS-HT-NSSL also shows signs of this - as well as the MPAS-HN-NSSL. The RRFS-EMC blows up a thing that looks like a potential supercell in Prince William Co around 18z and it tracks it through DC before exiting into the Bay in Anne Arundel Co. The 6z NAM kind of showed the same thing - NoVA supercell that blows up and heads E or ENE.
  5. Kmlwx
    10z HRRR almost has some signs of backbuilding/training for parts of the I-95 corridor in the 18z-01z timeframe.
  6. Kmlwx
    The cell is now near Shanghai and looks like a mini supercell almost.
  7. Kmlwx
    The cell NE of Capon Bridge already seems to have some minor rotation with it potentially.
  8. Kmlwx
    The 23z HRRR gets northern Maryland with some activity overnight but seems it doesn't like the threat of an overnight batch as much (or at all) like some prior runs wanted to fire up.
  9. Kmlwx
    Now I recall hearing that. Guess we'll just have to keep assuming it is overtaxing in these situations.
  10. Kmlwx
    12z ARW2 brings some cells/line through around 5 or 6 and then has a rogue super cellular type thing doing what @Eskimo Joe mentioned earlier lol ETA: It shows it in the 02-04z timeframe.
  11. Kmlwx
    I hope they have a fix for the HRRR over mixing in the works. It seems to do it EVERY time.
  12. Kmlwx
    Model soundings seem to still show a decent amount of CAPE overnight - but also have some CINH as well as can be expected. Probably if nothing else a good light show overnight.
  13. Kmlwx
    Most of the guidance seems to be in agreement that there may be a late afternoon/evening round of showers/storms - but much of the guidance is pretty weak with that stuff. NAM and RAP seem to think best parameters may actually show up during the 3z-6z window...while it will suck for daylight, it's possible this can still perform. Wonder if the CAPE will remain surface based that late, though...may end up being elevated (admittedly I haven't looked closely at the soundings). I'm not very intrigued for the early round...and I do wonder if that is going to stabilize some areas too much to have the nighttime round of storms. Another storm day when I'm at work all day....
  14. Kmlwx
    It's way out there - but the 12z Euro has a sub-1000mb low pressure passing around the Great Lakes next Monday. it actually deepens it to 996mb by 6z Tuesday. There's some CAPE available Monday on the model too - with significant bulk shear as well. That bears watching. The 12z GFS has some threat indicated Sun and Mon but the low looks pretty different/not as deep.
  15. Kmlwx
    Hope the power is back ASAP! Power outages can be fun as a kid - and maybe are a little interesting for the first hour or so as an adult...but after that things get pretty blah fast.
  16. Kmlwx
    Massive downpour here now
  17. Kmlwx
    Southern Maryland cell is trying for a last hurrah.
  18. Kmlwx
    It's definitely this. Populated areas - even with moderate storms tend to lay down a few LSRs.
  19. Kmlwx
    Have to imagine they are coordinating/discussing with local WFOs. Have folks at work that are antsy for my midday update for them - wanted to see the 12:30 SPC update before giving them the update.
  20. Kmlwx
    Refreshing the CoD SPC page like crazy...
  21. Kmlwx
    That LWX Special Weather Statement is a hint that they MAY have conferenced with SPC and some changes may be coming to the 1630z SPC update. Not saying definitely...but maybe an enhancement of the TOR probs. We'll see soon.
  22. Kmlwx
    Walked by a window at work - and there's still plenty of clouds but with a few sunny breaks in the Rockville/Potomac area.
  23. Kmlwx
    Visible satellite shows steady thinning of the cloud cover.
  24. Kmlwx
    I'm in favor of keeping it all here - while it turns into a mega-thread most years - it's a one stop shop for those wishing to go back through prior year's severe events. I know we used to separate into threads - but it's tougher to search those out than a single thread. And I don't think the forum struggles with large threads as much as it used to.
  25. Kmlwx
    I'm fully on board with today at this point. To quote Twister.... Let's all grab our ankles and stick our butts up in the air during the storms! Best place to be struck!
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