Kmlwx

The weenie in me is hoping for a modern era Jan 2000 model bust. If you were purely reading PSU’s posts about it not making sense, and were wearing total weenie goggles, you’d think we have a chance. Sadly I just don’t think anything of that magnitude is going to happen with 2025 model tech

Warnings out in WV

As soon as posted - I looked again and it was 989.4. Pretty impressive. SPC mesoanalysis shows really quick rises behind

My PWS is down to 990mb. Rate is-4mb an hour recently

Congratulations on your win

The 2025 iteration needs an early start due to a marginal threat for severe tomorrow (2/16)! Have at it!

Damn I’m slacking Will do it this PM at the eye doctor lol

I will settle for nothing except a Washington-Jefferson Storm repeat.

Wrong thread on the obs stuff!

Wonder if the 18z run will then be delayed as well. Will be interesting seeing the 12z Euro and the 18z GFS coming out around the same time...

Think @psuhoffman made a post earlier in the "not so fast" category on that front. We might want to be careful about rooting for a suppressed/sheared out mess solution even at this range. But then again - it could show a wrapped up/amped up storm at 0z.

I thought the new policy started to add distance learning days - or was that another county. Anyway - for obs - 33.4 here in Colesville right now. Glad it's not surging to 40 yet.

Going "all-in" in forecasting is generally not a great idea no matter what type of weather. Antecedent temps won't be like the January storm for one thing.

It really seems like there's a contingent of folks here that, after witnessing Feb 2010 and Jan 2016 just expect that and are extremely difficult to please otherwise.

I mean how about 0 inches? Would that be better? Just sayin'!

I mean you'll just have to watch the PDO index charts. There's really no way to tell if you're in a better cycle until it lasts a while and confirms that it was a better cycle. Although it is called the Pacific DECADAL Oscillation for a reason. So if it goes strongly one way - it's probably got some amount of staying power. To put it like a sports analogy - you really don't know you're team is in a dynasty period until after you're experiencing it and after.

Weather Forum Boxing Match on the Mall.

Is that map using FRAM or just QPF falling as ZR?

Yes. It was found upside down and submerged with no survivors.

And even if it *was* intensity - we aren't even in the higher shades!

A few notes about ice storms (like the big ones) - We all know that ice is often a lot less than expected. Heavy rain won't accrete well. Antecedent cold is important for those sick puppies out there hoping for a crippling ice storm. Ex: If we are 31-32 it's probably not going to be a biblical ice storm. But if we have a ton of cold air for a handful of days (or longer) ahead of the storm, those surface temperatures can really lead to a messy ice storm. CAD (as we all know) is underestimated at range many times. I don't believe in "we're due" - but I will say that this year has had legit ice storm potential in my mind with all the Barney cold that we've had. My gut feelings mean nada, but if we were going to have an overperforming ice event...this feels like the year it could happen...and I'm referring not to the tenth to half inch events - but the incredibly damaging 3/4 inch or higher events.

Probably better to use the FRAM calculation versus the raw QPF to ZR. But what does it matter this far out I guess

Low of 9.0 and that's where I am right now.

33.1 now (32.2 on the cheap thermometer). Slushy accumulation of either wet snow or sleet on the driveway and a few patches of the road that weren't covered in salt from prior events.

Snow mixing in again in Colesville/Silver Spring.