Kmlwx

Super long range GFS at 12z looks like potential fun coming up from the Carolinas hehe

22 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

So it looks like peak outage for the more immediate DMV was 150,000+ customers, and 250,000+ customers for the states of VA and MD combined. 

 

That's really impressive in the post tree massacre (the companies sheering off a ton of trees near power lines) era. 

3 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said:

My wife and daughter down the shore now near there and just texted me a vid with a nasty looking storm looming

I'll say "consolation prize" for missing two days of storms back home...but beach storms are awesome usually.

Right on the DE/MD border (North Ocean City) and that clouds look WICKED right now. Will upload when I can. Hoping I got some good shots with the S23. 

I was not in the area today.... Supposedly a tree fell on the house across the street from my parent's house. Will see the damage on Sunday. 

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

@Kmlwxdefinitely can see a westward moving outflow boundary from the first round of convection. Hopefully this can act as a mechanism for more storms later but I'm really pessimistic about it.

I'm right there with you. It's mostly evolving just as much of the guidance had been predicting with a focus S/E of DC. 

Looking more longer range - GFS is trying to signal (for multiple runs) Something in the first day or two of August with beefy parameters. Way too far out for now...but CIPS has also been lighting up in the 96-120hr frames. The super long range CIPS quiets down substantially - probably indicates some larger cold front to clear out the juice. 

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Don't think today is our day W of I-95.

I would tend to agree - and most guidance agreed overnight and this morning as well. Thursday already has the slight - maybe we can cash in. 

There's a diffuse boundary to the west of the existing storms. That will be something to watch. This is from the TIAD radar. 

We might have to hope a boundary can set off some storms for folks W of I-95

I just barely made it into the watch in terms of counties. 

Already storming E of 95 in many spots. 

I somehow never realized there is a mesoanalysis ARCHIVE! 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/ma_archive/ 

That's some decent fun going through our big events. Seems like some imagery is missing but there's enough there to have some fun for weather nerds. 

Pretty strong CAPE already indicated for this early hour on SPC mesoanalysis - core of it it suns from NE Maryland down to the Potomac, essentially over the Bay. 

14 minutes ago, H2O said:

Doesn’t have a name but near silver beach which is bay side way south of chincoteague

Hope you miss out on the potential 100 degree weather down there! 

31 minutes ago, H2O said:

I’ll take some beach storms

Which beach are you at? I'm thinking MBY will be a snoozer today. 

Much of the guidance is almost nothing if you are west of I-95 in most of the area. FV3 Hi-res is still decent. But east seems to be very much favored today. 

0z HRRR does it's usual thing of bringing dews way down - even into the lower 60s for some tomorrow afternoon. The 18z NAM had richer moisture as usual. Despite that, the HRRR does deliver some storms but it looks fairly garden variety. 

12z NAM nest goes kind of bonkers for parts of the area tomorrow afternoon - even has intense UH tracks over parts of the area. The other guidance is less impressive...but the FV3 is pretty good too. 

38 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like some 100 degree heat will be coming next week 

Greaaaaat - naturally it happens as we are exiting the climo hottest period lol. 

PBZ radar is cool to watch. You can see the outflow trying to outrun the storms. Outflow seems to be heading almost due south despite the storms trying to pull more easterly - they keep being tugged along with the outflow. 

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

HRRR timing is not even close. Storms right now about to move into state college around 10ish and HRRR at 10 has the storms like 3 counties west of there. 

It also seems to interact with the activity over WV which seems to "aid" in killing off the line. Certainly the line still looks robust for right now. 

0z HRRR kills off most of the activity for much of our area except for NE Maryland as LWX has been indicating. 

8 minutes ago, mappy said:

Wind threat? Should I bring in pool floats and stuff?

If it's easy - I'm not convinced the storms will make it here with much else than showers. But - some of the models do have something coming through. 

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

@Kmlwx I lost the OU CIMMS placefile for GR. Can you post it in here please?

Hang on - coming right up

https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PROBSEVERE

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Agreed. This event is climatologically abnormal, and we don't have the rocket fuel to really goose the storms up. Still, we have some decent mid level instability, a belt of shear, and some really solid DCAPE.

Also, in addition to not having the triple digit heat that June 2012 had, this will be arriving substantially later. In fact, it will probably arrive so late that it makes little sense to "stay up" for the storms...I'll set an alarm for 2am perhaps and see how things look. 

I do like the look of the stuff over western Ohio - based on the H5 flow I'd think that would be more likely to be our stuff versus the NW PA stuff.