Kmlwx

And here is the latest CSU MLP run - this is an increase from yesterday's run.

0z CIPS guidance had some beefy analogs. Doubt we meet some of those - but it's noteworthy if nothing else as to the dynamics of this system. 3/31/2022 4/13/2020 Those are both in the analogs.

CIPS and CSU-MLP both have some signs of life for that time period next week as well.

This time of year we are going to generally have to hope for a SUPER dynamic system. Pretty unlikely we'll have a ton of CAPE available...but it may not take much if the shear and storm system are dynamic enough on their own.

@WxWatcher007 - If you have a high res version or ever make one - I would honestly pay to have this turned into my blanket/comforter of choice.

I shouldn't speak too loudly though...I was going through old videos a few weeks ago and I found one where I am narrating snow falling out the front door and I say "WE HAVE SOME HEAVY SNOW FALLING HERE TODAY" and you can hear my mom in another room yell back "THAT'S NOT HEAVY." We're all weather weenies at heart that want heavy snow.

I'm far too tiny to be reaped. You'll never catch me. Had it been during severe season I 100% would not have forgotten you!!! I swear! I have your diagram of severe weather risk categories in my "Critical Documents" folder on my NAS device at home. It's literally in the same folder as copies of my health insurance card and other vital docs...and no I am not kidding

It literally will never not work!

I'll shut up after this...but there's clearly trying times ahead and in progress for the science communities in all fields. But we as a forum do *not* have to let ourselves tear each other to pieces. We are all entitled to our opinions - and we should understand that you are very unlikely to change somebody's mind these days. All you will end up doing is wasting finger strength typing and getting your blood pressure up. It's very clear to me that a certain percentage of this forum are just going to absolutely let the world "climate" these days just destroy them inside and out no matter what. We can be better than this and it's why the mods and management have asked us to steer clear of the "that" topic. Above all - and even despite some of the frankly horrid post tones I've seen on here in the past day or two, we are better than this as a forum. Many of us have been here since the Eastern days and many of us even before that. I would like to hope that we are all still those same people who rang with giddy child-like energy when snow was pouring down outside our windows in the big dog storms. I'll call some people out but all in good natured fun...but I remember @DDweatherman - taking a video of maybe pea sized hail or smaller and absolutely just losing his shit. I still chuckle about that video to this day (at least I think it was him!). @mappy - and I sort of came into our forum days around the same time so I'll always have that bonding point with her (my weenie tag era...). @Wxtrix may have her detractors over the years, but frankly my experience is that towards me, at least, she was never anything but welcoming and kind. Rich Hitchens (who was a member here) actually crossed paths with me when I asked for an interview for my high school paper - years before we figured out we were both posting here/and on Eastern....I miss that dude. Rich, Dave (for those that know Dave), and I had an inside joke from the conferences years ago that always gave us a chuckle. @Ian - while he was still posting here was a staple of the forum for years. For those of us that attended conferences, who can forget Wiz dressing up as Hannah Montana and doing the worm in front of the Marriott in Baltimore in front of a drunk wedding party. And good lord @yoda has been a rock in my weather world for years...I just can't get rid of that dude @Eskimo Joe has got to be the most endearing deb I've ever had the amazing misfortune of acquainting myself with (i say that in the most loving way lol). @H2O - how could I even write a single dig about that dude. @Maestrobjwa - We've clashed at times but you've never once told me to GTFO (you probably have wanted to countless times). And at this point - can't imagine this subforum without you! @Ji and @Stormchaserchuck1 - You both will probably hate being grouped together...but ya'll are the ones everyone loves to hate. @stormtracker - What the hell is there to say about you? You freaking made it so a bunch of weather nerds could hole up in a hotel MULTIPLE times in a row and get wasted and be totally obnoxious guests...you've started countless inside jokes, you've ruled with what I think is a ridiculously fair gavel....I mean hell...you never banned me even in the 2009-2011 period...and good lord you made it so that many of us could MEET IN THE FLESH....people like Paul f'ing Kocin (and many more). We were able to walk among some of our idols with your help....and some of those times literally felt like the cheesy scenes in a movie like Field of Dreams to me. And those aren't memories I will forget until my brain is mush. I left a ton of people I am very fond of out of that little ode above (and know that it's only because it was haphazardly and quickly written as word vomit)...but my bottom line here is that you can disagree with me...but the friendships that we have forged as a forum should easily be able to make it through whatever we are going through as a forum, country, and world. The amount of vile messages being posted here is just really sad to see. Maybe I'm just too naive as a person and maybe I just see too much good in people - but even the folks that people love to hate on in here - I've generally found a way to "make it work with" - with maybe an exception or two. We cannot let any of this F up what we have built here. It's not worth it to lose years of friendships. We've already lost members on here for health or age reasons...time flies too fast. Whether there's snow on the ground or not - it costs nothing for us to keep a little oasis of civility while the world seemingly burns around us. We can absolutely do this. But we all need to work together. So I ask that even if you can't keep it up - we all at least TRY to think before we post. Maybe take the edge off your messages if you re-read them and you just need to make them a little less vile. It can't hurt to do a quick read through. Weather has been formative to such big chunks of many of our lives...we'll get through this.

Can't we all just get along here guys?!

I know we are likely done with snow for most/all of us for the year...but if this is what the Medium/Long Range Thread is shifting to can we just rename it Banter Part II? We don't need to turn it into a pro or anti psu tirade or rehash things over and over again.

Transitioning to looking at the long range models for beefy low pressures going to our north and west. It's super early of course, but a good H5 pass can produce some dynamic results in late Feb into March and especially April. May not be traditional severe season for us, but if you're hunting ENH or MDTs stuff can sneak up. June is of course a really robust month for us normally (and May I guess). Once we get to July we get more into pulse severe season.

It's totally that - we're getting overrun by the "bring on the 70s and 80s" - which I can totally get behind. I'm not against nice weather. But let's let our seasons just do their thing. It's still 2/21...I'm not about to root for an onslaught of heat/humidity/mosquitos and bugs this early. It'll be here before all of you heat lovers know it. I've always said - it's easier to warm up than it is to cool down. I personally wish I could hibernate (other than during thunderstorms) for the period form June until mid-September). I'm biased by being an absolute mosquito buffet though...and having a medical heat intolerance.

Have you seen how DC/Baltimore area drivers react to 2 snowflakes in the air? Advisory warranted for nothing else than moronic driving. DC area folks will find a way to get into a 15 car pileup on a dry, sunny day. Apocalyptic traffic ensures with 5 drops of rain or a 1-2 snowflakes.

I "interned" with him and Tony Pann on WeatherTalk back in like 2007. It was a blast. Both of them are good guys. The problem is Justin kind of went in a weird direction and had some previous posts also about chemtrails and crap. Both of them are suckers for snow and interesting weather - which unfortunately hurts them at times. As people though - I had nothing but great things to say about them. It was cool as a high schooler to be on the air with them a few times. And I'll never shy away from saying that I whopped their butts in the weekly forecasting battle they'd do against each other.

Give me exciting weather. Even if it’s mixed bag or snow to rain, give me a dynamic system that weather weenies can be fascinated by.

Think it came back here at right around then too. I saw lights on the train track side of Piney Orchard. My SO lives off of Stream Valley. They originally said 7:45 and that went by with no update. Looks like Xfinity is out this morning now...

Gaps between big gusts seem to be increasing - but there have been some strong gusts still. AACo FD has been getting hammered with power outage/electrical issue related calls. Still 108K+ outages in BGE territory.

Seemed to really quick with the combo of the sunshine allowing good mixing, the CAA and the pressure rises. Loss of sunshine and the pressure gradient passing by probably means just normal blustery conditions if anything now. Should give BGE some time to recover...

BGE is saying 7:45pm ETR for this outage in Odenton. It's impacting a lot of people so I guess I believe it. But with 114K outages...I'm not sure. Though maybe it's a relatively simple issue to resolve - perhaps at the Waugh Chapel huge substation. Wind is still ripping pretty good at times too

Posting over in the obs thread still - but PEPCO outages still hanging under 10K (for now) and BGE is passing the 100K mark. Totals in Maryland are over 125K and Virginia is quite high as well. Power outage maps look more reminiscent of a tropical storm or major severe weather episode. Soggy ground+wind will do that!

BGE over 88K now. Maryland total over 100K. Impressive....Synoptic wind always gets us.

I know we've mostly been using the normal obs thread but this synoptic wind has been downright impressive. outages for MD and VA are over 300K combined at this point it looks iike

PEPCO is still down below 7K outages. Meanwhile, BGE is up over 70K

Power out now in Odenton/Piney Orchard part of Anne Arundel County. Still on back home in Colesville.