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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Solid "blind" guess would be the usual climo favored spots of Fred/Carroll or down in Charles County east to the Bay. Rest of us may just watch and wave at the storms passing in the distance. Maybe we can all score a gusty outflow.
  2. Kmlwx
    Let's see what the 12z says when it comes out in the next hour or two. I think somebody will get walloped tomorrow - just not at all convinced it won't be fairly isolated/narrow.
  3. Kmlwx
    It blows a cell through Southern Maryland on the "classic" La Plata track it seems too. I'm intrigued enough for tomorrow. We'll see.
  4. Kmlwx
    Doesn't this stuff usually speed up?
  5. Kmlwx
    Initiation is often a problem for us
  6. Kmlwx
    I agree. I don't see much of anything suggesting "widespread severe" for us. The only conclusion I can make is that LWX is assuming that the models for subsequent days need to see the resolution of prior day convection and that they are only talking about potential. Who knows...kinda weird
  7. Kmlwx
    Both April 28, 2002 and June 13, 2013 are popping up on the CIPS analogs from the 12z run. This is looking at the 84hr panels. Also the LWX HWO is already mentioning large hail and 70mph winds from storms Thursday. Bullish. I guess a lot will depend on how the next few days of severe evolves.
  8. Kmlwx
    I'm pretty under-whelemed about this entire week. I'm sure many of us will hear thunder at some point but it looks pretty meh in terms of any really exciting weather stuff rolling through. We may continue our wait for a pattern that gets stuff to this side of the mountains. Lots of the good parameters so far this spring have looked great well to the west and then died off - and bad timing (as always).
  9. Kmlwx
    I'm still keeping an eye on it. Though it seems like each day could have a significant mitigating factor. Plenty of time for one day to shine through as a legit threat, though. I think the OH Valley is more of a lock than us.
  10. Kmlwx
    Still a severe signal for a threat or two in the Tue-Fri timeframe. I'm not "super enthused" for our area. But stuff can sneak up on us. For now just bears watching. One of those days (or more) could perform. CIPS still has some indication.
  11. Kmlwx
    La Plata tornado was April 28, 2002. Analogs are showing up around 4/25 so it's not a "perfect" match - and I did look at the H5 maps - it was a MUCH sharper vort pass
  12. Kmlwx
    Late April 2002 is showing up on some of the analogs for next week.
  13. Kmlwx
    June has some beefy events in easy memory. 2008, 2012 are "recent" ones that really raked the entire area. Just seems to be a good month or still having somewhat dynamic systems and also high heat.
  14. Kmlwx
    I'd mostly agree - though I think there are different types of events that stand out for people. I think July "pulse" storms can be SUPER intense but over smaller geographical areas. So like 90% of us may not remember a memorable event that may have been very impactful in one or two forum member's backyards. However - we definitely seem more prone to beefy/areawide moderate risk style events in May/June and perhaps another little peak into September. But really it all comes down to the "flavor" of a given season.
  15. Kmlwx
    May 7-11 is seemingly a legitimate window to watch. GFS continues to highlight potential around then.
  16. Kmlwx
    Nah - just looking at "threat windows" - it seems like the last 2-3 runs have actually had a window during that timeframe (May 8-10). Worth keeping an eye on if nothing else. If it's a legit window, I'd want to see CIPS at least with a modest signal around then in the coming days. I'm sure in June there will be the usual few days embedded in there. By July we are getting into pulse/microburst season unless an unusually strong storm system rolls through. August is mostly the same - except that the tropical folks will probably be looking for threats. September usually brings the threat at least for some progressively stronger/more dynamic systems (but really this seems to have pushed to Oct/Nov even in recent years.
  17. Kmlwx
    18z GFS says not so fast. It has a window around day 10 with decent mid-level lapse rates somewhat close/in the area and good supercell parameters. Wayyyy out there - but I'm willing to give the season time to evolve. It definitely is annoying getting a big early heat "wave" like this and probably not getting much out of it precip/storm wise.
  18. Kmlwx
    Even an area wide line of storms with nice lightning would be fun at this point.
  19. Kmlwx
    12z CIPS maps actually had some moderate risk days in the mix of analogs. June 4, 2008 is showing up too But also some other older events with moderate risks or a decent number of reports locally.
  20. Kmlwx
    I see it on CIPS. Though it's not a meaty signal as of yet. We take what we can get - it's been on the boring side lately!
  21. Kmlwx
    For sure. I feel like every single model site has some weird quirk that is awful and really tough to get used to. I love the CoD site except that it seems to lag behind sometimes - but it's a higher education site...so I'm not going to be picky. I know some will say the CoD interface is outdated but I love it...simple and you know what you're doing no matter what.
  22. Kmlwx
    Maybe I can ditch Pivotal then. I already bailed on WeatherBell because of their price hike. Pivotal has been pretty good, though.
  23. Kmlwx
    Photographers out there...B-52 is going to do a low flyover of Arlington Cemetery around 11:40 apparently. The aircraft is currently holding over the Calvert County area. Anybody from from JB Andrews WNW to Alexandria/Arlington and then just NW of Arlington may get a photo-op from this. People farther out - it will depend how the aircraft departs the area. Guessing MoCo is out of luck as this airframe will probably head back to Barksdale after.
  24. Kmlwx
    The HRRR is actually kind of solid for some of us this afternoon/evening. But almost none of the other guidance seems to agree with it. 6z NAM 3km was snooze worthy and so were the ARW twins. ETA: The HRDPS is pretty okay as well.
  25. Kmlwx
    #derechoredux
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