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Kmlwx

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  1. Kmlwx
    Spoiler: Early showers/storms that keep popping like popcorn to keep us stable. That, or just socked in overcast until a brief clearing that happens too late.
  2. Kmlwx
    Well it has poor timing working against it (not during peak heating). But we've seen many times when lines that are supposed to fizzle completely do make it across the higher terrain. I don't think it'll be an area-wide line though. If it gets to "us" it'll probably fizzle somewhere between the Blue Ridge and the beltway. Game of miles as weather always is!
  3. Kmlwx
    Completely unscientific reasoning - but if that line can deliver some good storms/gusts (even if sub-severe) to the area...this has the feeling of a mini-heater combining today and tomorrow. We are due...that's my only reasoning really.
  4. Kmlwx
    GFS drops dewpoints into the low to mid 60s in a little pocket over the metro area
  5. Kmlwx
    If the 6z GFS run is right, we really don't see 70+ dewpoints again after tomorrow for the remainder of the run. I wouldn't mind that.
  6. Kmlwx
    The 3km NAM looks better in regards to MLCAPE - seemingly focuses a corridor running NW to SE roughly along the Potomac (maybe the front @Eskimo Joe was talking about). Problem that I have is that we've seen the NAM nest have dews too high at this lead time before - and that could be inflating the instability parameters. I could make the argument for an absolute bust or a higher end day at this point...sounds typical of our area and severe A good example of the dewpoint argument is the long range 12z HRRR (screenshot below). You can see that the best 70+ dewpoints get limited to SE of the DC to Baltimore corridor. Believe @high risk has said the HRRR sometimes mixes out the dews too much - so that could be a reason to give this solution less attention. One thing that has my interest is the fact that early day activity, while it could dampen severe chances, it could moisten things up to keep dewpoints a bit elevated (like the NAM and NAM nest). Early day activity can also leave behind boundaries (as we've seen before). The issue is that it can also stabilize us too much. It's such a crap chute and gamble for severe around here. Push/pull situation. My gut feeling is that we all (or most of us) hear thunder tomorrow...but that the "focused" severe threat might reside south of a line MD32 and perhaps east of an imaginary line running maybe Rockville down to EZF. That might be a little pessimistic...but I'd rather be cautious at this point. There's enough guidance that really skunks us to give me pause.
  7. Kmlwx
    Few comments about the 12z 12km NAM so far - it seems to have lots of clouds NW of I-95...subsequently the really high CAPE is SE of the corridor. It also pushes the line through earlier than prior runs.
  8. Kmlwx
    A quick/undetailed look at the guidance is a little less impressive this morning. Interestingly...some models like the experimental RRFS A and MPAS ones show almost nothing for many of us Mon afternoon. NAM and NAM nest soundings still look solid - but they have backed off on some of the parameters. SPC day 2 outlook indicates the system has trended weaker and they went with 2/15/15 We'll see how things trend on today's guidance. If it bleeds any further it will just be a garden variety isolated severe day by the time we get to tomorrow afternoon.
  9. Kmlwx
    30% for hail is pretty unusual around here. It might even be more uncommon than 45% wind. And of course we all know 10% hatched TOR is nearly unheard of except in our juiciest events. We definitely won't see anything like that in the day 2 tomorrow. I'm inclined to hedge lower for now even for the first day 1 outlook on Monday.
  10. Kmlwx
    Totally going off of my awful memory - but I think we do get them a good bit. Particularly the fairly generalized 15% ones. I feel like there was one time I can remember in semi-recent memory that there was a 30% day 3 maybe...I might be wrong. If you're asking @Eskimo Joe - having SPC go big on day 2 or beyond...is a jinx.
  11. Kmlwx
    Radar looks good for today!
  12. Kmlwx
  13. Kmlwx
    12z GFS continues with lower dewpoints, lower MLLR (significantly lower!) and an overall lesser threat IMO. It's holding steady on those lower dews. I don't think we'll see the 75+ degree dews necessarily. But thinking that will be a key factor here. If dewpoints mix down to the mid 60s - it will probably be a very toned down/limited threat...if we can hold them 69+ I think the threat will be beefier. Definitely on board with Eskimo Joe in terms of these all being very small scale factors that we can't easily resolve this far out. Also remember the usual NAM vs GFS bias of NAM going bonkers with instability sometimes.
  14. Kmlwx
    I'm still onboard for the most part. Usual caveats still apply 3 days out. Certainly the best threat from 3+ days out I've seen this year IMO.
  15. Kmlwx
    The NAM and RGEM (and hinted on some of the non GFS globals) pop a bit of a low or at least something resembling one in parts of our area Monday PM. This seems to get that SE wind and enhances dewpoints. The less favorable models seem to keep it more SWerly instead of SErly
  16. Kmlwx
    The 18z GFS is 3-6 degrees lower on dewpoints than the NAM for Monday...and lower MLLR as well. Subsequently...parameters are much lower, CAPE is much lower and the threat seems a lot more garden variety versus the NAM. The nice thing is...a lot of the other globals seem closer to the NAM.
  17. Kmlwx
    Screenshot spamming - but I will take my chances with this H5 look most times
  18. Kmlwx
  19. Kmlwx
    18z NAM (12km) sounding from Pivotal site. I clicked and dragged so it would take an average sounding of MoCo essentially. Again...caveat that it is the NAM at range...but damn....MLLR that aren't horrible, ample CAPE, EHI and SRH up there...and SARS percentages nothing to sneeze at. Look at that SE wind at the surface too...
  20. Kmlwx
    One other thing about the 18z NAM soundings....the SARS numbers/results have been steadily getting more impressive. It's gone from 40-50% in the TOR and hail columns to now into the 50-60+ percent range.
  21. Kmlwx
    The 18z 12km NAM looks great if I'm being honest. really nice sim reflectivity, especially for it being the 12km resolution. Of course...it's the NAM at range. I hope the lackluster 12z GFS run was a blip...we'll see here soon. Frankly...if we took the 18z NAM at face value...I'm guessing it would be a ENH day if not higher.
  22. Kmlwx
    I've been downloading from here - https://www.wxtools.org/
  23. Kmlwx
    Good news is that at a minimum we should have chances at a few rounds of storms late weekend and into the holiday. While that potential squall line Sun night into Mon AM could spoil Mon afternoon, seems odds for storms for most are pretty high. Remains to be seen what the actual severe potential looks like. I got all my GR products updated and downloaded some new color tables....so I probably jinxed us.
  24. Kmlwx
    12z CIPS at hour 84..if you cheat a little and use the Southeast Domain instead of the one over us, April 29, 2002 at 0z is the top analog (La Plata event). Also one of the June 1998 beefy events showing up. Overall the CIPS guidance looks more robust at the 12z run versus the overnight run. I was pretty enthusiastic with how the Euro looks latest run too.
  25. Kmlwx
    12z GFS backed wayyy off on the Monday threat. Instability looks much lower. This is why we can't "bank on" anything days out ahead. We'll see how things look later in the weekend.
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