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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    15% (we are at the northern extreme still) remains on the new Day 4 outlook from SPC. Looks like a dynamic system - though GFS/FV3 instability isn't all that high which seems like it might be a main limiting factor. Then again, the GFS/FV3 were low on that stuff as well for the past event - once it got into NAM range things looked juicier. We'll see how this one plays out.
  2. Kmlwx
    So are we now looking a bit earlier than the earlier thoughts of like 2-4am?
  3. Kmlwx
    Winds suck for flights (especially crosswinds) but most non-severe winds won't cause ground stops etc
  4. Kmlwx
    Is it delayed due to the inbound flight though? That's different than being delayed due to weather on your leg of the flight. A takeoff at 7pm could still easily get you into the area.
  5. Kmlwx
    Probably not lol - at least not for us
  6. Kmlwx
    Enhanced is not that uncommon - it used to be included in the slight category. But semantics.
  7. Kmlwx
    Enhanced! First of the year.
  8. Kmlwx
    That is a heck of a write up - One of the best I've seen from LWX regarding severe weather in recent memory.
  9. Kmlwx
    LWX discussion is pretty bullish for later in the week too.
  10. Kmlwx
    Latest day 2 outlook extends slight to the coast
  11. Kmlwx
    Good to see even early-ish in the season there isn't a shortage of chances...even if it isn't high end. It's still very early.
  12. Kmlwx
    Bullish is what I like to hear.
  13. Kmlwx
    Would be a fun night if that were to verify.
  14. Kmlwx
    The 12z 12km NAM also looks kind of good for overnight Sunday into Monday...but we all know how nocturnal stuff usually works for us. Unless that speeds up to be Sunday afternoon it probably won't be much.
  15. Kmlwx
    LWX in their early AM discussion seems very bullish despite them also mentioning uncertainty for late next week. Too far out to say anything for now.
  16. Kmlwx
    Luckily it's 8 days away.
  17. Kmlwx
    Way out there - but the GFS has a decent setup it seems for next Friday...
  18. Kmlwx
    Instability will be the question mark with Friday. Shear should be more than sufficient. Looks like a chance later in the weekend maybe too. (Sunday?)
  19. Kmlwx
    Friday will probably be all about the CAPE. If the CAPE is too low it'll probably be a pencil thin line of gusty showers.
  20. Kmlwx
    Wow - you're right it looks really nice.
  21. Kmlwx
    We are still pretty early season. Though I guess La Plata was an April event. Friday would seem to me to be the better option for now.
  22. Kmlwx
    Meh
  23. Kmlwx
    Still looks like Monday holds some marginal potential for severe. Probably a good shot at a few rumbles of thunder at least. LWX mentions storms in their PM forecast discussion. Nothing looks particularly robust - so certainly no outbreaks or widespread severe for us.
  24. Kmlwx
    I'm not in yet - just making that clear
  25. Kmlwx
    The only times it is acceptable for dews to be above 60 is when it will bring a severe risk. #ChangeMyMind The setup doesn't look super robust but at least it's something to track.
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