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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Seems fairly standard - I guess the comment at the end is unusual - but they are saying they don't think we will achieve that given the unidirectional wind.
  2. Kmlwx
    I think at the very least storms should be more widespread than today. Intensity TBD...but it still looks like enough fuel and shear will be around. Nice stretch we've had for parts of the area. Wish I had been at my apartment for the Columbia TOR.
  3. Kmlwx
    Even Thursday is looking decent on recent sim reflectivity. But I think tomorrow might be the main show. Lots of ENH this year so far. This year has been fun so far...loved the Saturday storms in Columbia.
  4. Kmlwx
    So what happens when EJ is in and Kmlwx is out? The @WxWatcher007 scale is broken now.
  5. Kmlwx
    Oh snap. ETA: I'd feel pretty good about my storm odds today if I was in Lancaster/Millersville this PM.
  6. Kmlwx
    It is quite high for this area. Doesn't mean much without forcing, though.
  7. Kmlwx
    I still think most of us are out
  8. Kmlwx
    Worth noting the ARW and ARW2 are much more robust with storms (especially across northeastern parts of the CWA). I'm still on board for tomorrow.
  9. Kmlwx
    Shocked that meso covers so far into Maryland. Includes Howard County entirely.
  10. Kmlwx
    SPC mesoanalysis has supercell composite parameter of 12 in a pocket over the area.
  11. Kmlwx
    The 14z HRRR has pretty much nothing of interest south of the M/D line this afternoon/evening. ETA: But the extended HRRR (12z) looks great for tomorrow.
  12. Kmlwx
    June is definitely out "big league" month it seems. Though really anytime April through July can go big with the right ingredients. Once we get into July though it seems things go more towards pulse severe as shear tends to be harder to come by. Hopefully June brings continued chances at tracking. Best part about severe season is that I tend not to give *too* much look at day 4 and beyond other than glancing at general setups and the day 4-8 outlook. None of this chasing snowstorms from 14 days out kind of things
  13. Kmlwx
    IIRC somebody once said that a lot of our "big severe" days have some morning showers/rain which can sometimes serve to beef up the dewpoint and/or lay down boundaries for storms to fire along. Not saying tomorrow OR Wednesday are "big severe" days - but could help us out a bit.
  14. Kmlwx
    Forcing looks to stay north. One thing that could work is getting good outflow from those storms to touch off storms for us. But the models are certainly not onboard with that right now (but it's far out for now). I'm more interested in Wednesday at this point. NAM nest is absolutely insistent on good parameters but nothing coming of them in the LWX CWA.
  15. Kmlwx
    SPC thinks PA is ground zero around here tomorrow. And other than the morning stuff, the NAM, NAM nest and HRRR (long range) are not enthused. I'm out for now.
  16. Kmlwx
    I'll cross my fingers and hope for persistence - good storms lately so hopefully our luck continues.
  17. Kmlwx
    Looks like NAM nest keeps our area pretty much in the clear despite parameters being nice. NEPA looks ominous, though.
  18. Kmlwx
  19. Kmlwx
    One more
  20. Kmlwx
  21. Kmlwx
  22. Kmlwx
    Radarscope has a TVS on the most intense part of the line
  23. Kmlwx
    Yeah it looks like the evening stuff is getting going. Let's see how it does with lowering instability/loss of daytime heating.
  24. Kmlwx
    Starting to think we'll have to wait for the stuff that the HRRR is insistent will come through around 1-2z
  25. Kmlwx
    Just fired up a spare smartphone running a hyperlapse video capture looking north (and a bit west) of Columbia. Hoping to catch any CU growth and subsequent storm formation.
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