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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    I'm starting to lean towards the bust side of things.
  2. Kmlwx
    It's to account for the complex in WV it seems.
  3. Kmlwx
    I'm starting to hope for the weenie stuff - outflow triggering stuff for us, cold pool establishing etc
  4. Kmlwx
    I just hope we don't end up going 0 for 3. Be nice to track a nice storm rolling through the area even if not my own BY.
  5. Kmlwx
    This is a big factor for sure. Extended tracking always makes busts more painful. Imagine having a D8 severe outlook go poof once it hits day 1
  6. Kmlwx
    Most recent HRRR runs are pretty pitiful for some of us.
  7. Kmlwx
    Thus far the models with the intense activity remaining in PA have been correct. Still early, though. That DC split is looking MIGHTY so far
  8. Kmlwx
    The other nice thing is the severe weenies tend to not have a meltdown when storms don't work out. We move on after complaining a little bit. Not speaking for everyone - but there's a lot more of a "what happens happens" mentality with severe.
  9. Kmlwx
    The only difference is we tend to not crash the forum during severe season
  10. Kmlwx
    Not a particularly robust meso discussion.
  11. Kmlwx
    Cell going up near Hancock
  12. Kmlwx
    Ah - the good old "SEE TEXT" - that was an amazing example of how tough to predict severe can be. Some of our most memorable events I feel like are underforecast by SPC from leads.
  13. Kmlwx
    Wooo - some of what I read is sticking (finally). I've come so far since 2006.
  14. Kmlwx
    The way I've seen it explained - the bars (horizontal) coming from the left side of the sounding indicate that the sounding is heavily contaminated (I guess from lift/precip???)
  15. Kmlwx
    Just south of FDK tomorrow - contaminated obviously
  16. Kmlwx
    Would be pretty "classic-DC" if we manage to whiff on all three days around DC proper.
  17. Kmlwx
    Yeah - the soundings are absurd for areas within that pocket. Contaminated for sure in areas (I found a sounding with 50.1 supercell composite param).
  18. Kmlwx
    Latest HRRR absolutely sucks for us Looks like we play dodge the storms on that run.
  19. Kmlwx
    So much CAPE available for that one - temps were triple digits ahead of that. Tons and tons of fuel for it. Didn't that have an EML as well?
  20. Kmlwx
    If there's a red box anywhere today it will be there.
  21. Kmlwx
    Early cap breaking is one of our other top ways to fail around here. Need cap to hold another hour or two ideally.
  22. Kmlwx
    Multiple stations now showing 90 degrees.
  23. Kmlwx
    You can see the DC split showing up already (half kidding)
  24. Kmlwx
    My coworker always tells me his story of driving from this area to Western Maryland (Clear Spring area) and he had to keep stopping for warnings apparently. Wild.
  25. Kmlwx
    Makes sense given storms already entering that watch area.
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