Kmlwx

It does seem like for tomorrow - east of our area has a better shot. As much as I don't want to jump to 80s and humidity very quickly...it would be fun to get some exciting bonafide severe days in here soon. early April is still a bit early of course...but this is the time of year when it's not quite as hard as March or earlier. Hoping we can track something more than gusty showers. The storms last night were pretty nice - hell of a lightning show in the 4am hour .

Monday looks like our shot from the big storm system. If the slower solutions are correct there could be some decent warm temps on Monday and storms.

I've had some signal differences with the 162.450 frequency at my parent's house compared to the past few years. Certain parts of the house that got great reception before, no longer do. And corners of the house where it would seem no radio signal could be received are now excellent. 162.550 used to be my go-to until the 450 one came online.

Much of the guidance gets us to at-or-above 70 degrees on Monday. There could be a severe risk then - as also pointed out in the D4-8 from SPC. Still looks like the big time threat will remain well south of the area for the potential Easter Sunday outbreak that is being modeled. Doesn't look like much for us today until you get down into Southern Maryland - maybe a few cells. We'll also keep an eye on tomorrow of course.

Thunder and gusty winds would be fun. Even if we don't see anything locally for Sunday - just seeing some of the guidance for areas of the Southeast is pretty freaky.

And there's plenty of time to move things around. I'm sure we're not at the final setup on the models. We'll see where we stand later in the week. Would suck if most of us miss out on appreciable storms tonight, tomorrow, Thursday and then the weekend too.

It looks intense - but primarily for the SE. I'm not convinced we see much of anything up our way other than rain maybe. Bears watching for sure.

LOL. The 12z HRRR sends a big time cell right through Frederick County, Montgomery County and Howard County this evening.

Yeah...I think NoVa could get some activity. Certainly far west of our area looks much better. We'll find someway to bust on all three days.

@yoda - I read that more as the storm potential will extend into our area - not necessarily that the hatching would come into our area. CAMs are a mixed bag it seems - I'm underenthused for today locally..for now.

LOL

The 06z run of the 3km NAM had a nice complex coming through the DC area tomorrow afternoon/evening.

SPC indicates some potential for Wednesday.

Don't believe anything is going to be in the cards for MBY this evening. On to the next event up here!

Temps are really heading upward. IF (big if) anything pops, it could get pretty good looking. Watching and waiting.

Think we'd need a stronger S wind to scour out the wedge. Lots of full sunshine just outside the wedge, though. I could see somebody in western Maryland or the WV panhandle getting a decent cell this afternoon.

https://i.imgur.com/Xe0VYkb.mp4

Wundermap shows the front pretty clearly. The wedge is very visible. There's a station reading 84 out near Petersburg (can't be right...) but low to mid 70s in that area, 60s and 70s down south of Fredericksburg. Looks like the wedge is running roughly from areas like Hancock, MD south to Winchester and then to Culpeper, over to the Potomac River etc.

Finally back at a computer - have been driving back from PA, to the apartment in Columbia and now at my parent's place down in Colesville. Super foggy for this far into the day. About to pull up surface obs to take a look where it is.

The front isn't here for sure. Sitting around 50 in Columbia and socked in with clouds and fog

That is high praise coming from a tagged met! Thank you! I like to think I've come from one of the biggest weenies here in 2006 (from the Eastern days) to where I am now thanks for folks like you. Tomorrow could be really nice for an isolated swath of real estate that gets under a cell. Just not sure there will be more than one or two of them total.

The 0z 3km NAM appears (based on 2m temps) to get the wedge hung up a bit. In late March, I would be inclined to believe the wedge will be harder to erode than easier. The diving line is about the Potomac River on that run. Some high parameters in a pocket down near La Plata, Fredericksburg etc. That's a very believable scenario for now. If I was looking for severe, I'd rather be down in that area than in my area or certainly not @mappy 's area. Though we all know that playing with boundaries and fronts can be rewarding due to the shear. It's going to be a day of low coverage it seems - but if one cell can get rooted and has surface based instability to work with - that discussion is well within the realm of possibilities. Certainly not a widespread svr day.

15 and 21z SREF runs both placed the bullseye (nothing too high) of tor ingredients right over the DC metro tomorrow afternoon.

Just had a chance to sit down and look at some of the guidance. ARW, ARW2 and NMM pretty much show nothing for us tomorrow. HRDRPS has some nice looking activity in the 20z time frame...but not sure I'd want to put all my eggs in the HRDRPS. We'll probably be stuck with a game time call.

Looking at the 18z long range HRRR and the latest 3km NAM - I'm pretty torn. They don't really have much activity in the area - but they do hint at the possibility for one or two good cells. Seems like our usual type of event where it could be an absolute nothing-event. But that SPC and LWX discussions definitely are conditionally very intriguing. A few days ago I had this pretty much written off. Will come down to our typical question of instability. Would be a lot of fun to track something given how downtrodden a lot of folks are right now with the COVID-19 outbreak.