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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Nice to see GEFS being so robust on that.
  2. Kmlwx
  3. Kmlwx
    120hr mark is honking hard on CIPS.
  4. Kmlwx
    Long range 12z HRRR has a bow echo type thing come through the area tomorrow afternoon.
  5. Kmlwx
    CIPS appears to be suggestive that things may be flipping back to active for us WRT severe. 120hr has some severe risk and then the extended analogs also show some spikes.
  6. Kmlwx
    Crank the LLJ and give me a high wind event. I love synoptic wind events. Severe would be icing.
  7. Kmlwx
    Mall wedge or bust.
  8. Kmlwx
    NAM nest bullseyes DC Thur PM.
  9. Kmlwx
    I'm out until I'm in.
  10. Kmlwx
    Why are you doing this to us - now I'm going to dream of severe.
  11. Kmlwx
    @yoda - Remember though that shear can't be too strong is instability isn't that great as the updrafts could get ripped apart. Plus...NAM at range disclaimer as usual.
  12. Kmlwx
    You got me REALLY excited and then I got totally deflated as I kept reading
  13. Kmlwx
    Deb
  14. Kmlwx
    Here's the one for exceeding ONE severe report within 110km
  15. Kmlwx
    % of top 15 analogs with severe reports exceeding 10 severe reports within 110km of a point. This is from the 0z CIPS suite. Hour 120
  16. Kmlwx
    Relevant text from the D4-8 outlook for those interested...
  17. Kmlwx
    It's not a minor signal either - for long leads the percentages on CIPS are actually halfway decent. Now we'll see if it holds. If we can avoid having SPC outlook us in a 15% on day 3 or beyond we'll be golden
  18. Kmlwx
    Time period around June 11th might be our next severe threat. CIPS guidance is printing out some threat around that time based on analogs.
  19. Kmlwx
    This is more typical of DC severe - failure to the max.
  20. Kmlwx
    Planet sized hail.
  21. Kmlwx
    With embedded wedges every 1-2 miles along the line and minivan sized hail.
  22. Kmlwx
    Bring it west and drop a wedge in the woods near my parent's house
  23. Kmlwx
    Go big or go home boys. Let's bring it home.
  24. Kmlwx
    Those tend to result in pencil thing lines of gusty showers around here.
  25. Kmlwx
    Does seem that it can overdo those dews at times. I'll wait until tomorrow afternoon before I go out entirely...just doesn't have "the look"
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