Kmlwx
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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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Very anomalous. I think his statement still holds.
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Or a one hit wonder
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Man...I'm guessing this GFS cold bias is real. That's crazy.
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Tree down on a car in my parent's neighborhood with critical injury. Rescue in progress. Gathering more info
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We need these wind fields with 3000j/kg CAPE lol
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I'm becoming more intrigued by the synoptic wind behind lol
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Latest SPC outlook mentions poor lapse rates but 700J/KG of CAPE at IAD
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Pressure rises of 5mb in 2hr now indicated on mesoanalysis behind the system. Those have been increasing.
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Tornado possible tag in the Maryland warning.
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Gust to 48mph in Leesburg it seems.
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No warnings locally for now. Pressure rises behind are really cranking.
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67mph non-tstm gust reported in MIneral, WV
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It's very far away lol. It has a lot of ground to cover before it would threaten the city.
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The one thing that may be wrong with the HRRR is the instability on the model looks pretty high. Over 1K
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21z HRRR shows the line intensifying a bit as it comes east.
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It's broken right now - should congeal as it comes east. Could intensify further. We'll see. Per mesoanalysis - the best combo of ingredients is currently sitting a hair west of DC proper. And then running north and south.
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Pressure surge behind the line is intensifying. 4mb rises in 2 hours.
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It seems to reduce the tornado wording a touch from the watch probabilities but yeah the "rapid increase" text is nice.
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Actually was a 19z sounding from LWX https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/19103119_OBS/ Shear is (as expected) very impressive. Instability is present - but nothing ground breaking.
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The watch probs in our watch and the one to the south would seem to indicate we could go moderate. I'm not sure it'll happen but if there's an event this could be it - especially with potential high impact on Halloween.
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You've gotta wonder with those watch probabilities if hatching could be introduced at 20z.
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Agree - but more fuel for the fire.
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Those are absurd probabilities for Halloween. 30% of EF2+ whoa... "A couple of intense tornadoes possible"
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17z HRRR brings a nice looking updraft helicity swath through western parts of the DC area. Like western Montgomery County.
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Yeah today could be a legit deal if we get more than just a bit of sunshine. Line is already taking shape nicely. Lots of wind reports with it already - which is impressive given that it's going through relatively low population density areas.
