Kmlwx

@csnavywx thanks for the great explanation for us weenies!

And in the morning no less. Very, very impressive event even by normal severe season standards.

This is only the beginning. Here's the seasonal projection from the weenie simulation - Rest of February - Not much but maybe some gusty showers March - Regular bouts of severe synoptic wind following behind monster lows with squalls and wedges rapidly raking the area. April - Regular bouts of moist, warm air clashing with high shear events to warm us up for peak season. May - Daily wedges June - Daily wedges centered on the mall.

Low CAPE, high shear events fail for us like 90 percent of the time.

Let's do this again with 80+ degree temps and 65+ dews.

We always seem to "luck" our way into at least one severe weather "event" every February. Then we usually go mostly dormant until April or May.

Come join the dark side over in my severe season thread!

Intense drive just now from the Colesville area to the Potomac/Rockville area. Wish I could have grabbed a picture of the clouds.

I looked at the CFS supercell composite maps on the COD page last night. This winter sucks.

Upper air maps are posted here plenty.

No it's locked in. 8 days is the "rule" for whether something is happening or not.

EF-2 is exciting from a distance - but locally it's just too populated to hope for anything like that. Imagine if we pulled a prolonged ring of fire derecho pattern and then topped it off with a tropical system in the fall. Would easily make up for a dreadful winter (barring late turn around).

This is an excellent start to the thread. My only issue with derecho patterns is that they can be very hot ones...worth it for excitement I guess.

It's only January...but with the winter season looking incredibly bleak...let's fire up the 2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Disco Thread. May our lack of winter weather this season forebode a spring and summer FULL of the folllowing @yoda copying and pasting @Eskimo Joe being bullish on events @mappy getting to break out some GIS skills on something local @Ian popping in to tell us the upcoming pattern looks ripe @high risk with ample opportunity to educate us and keep our hopes high when it looks like we won't get sun before an event. As a reminder - the Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather Reference Scale is displayed below - @WxWatcher007 to credit for this. Let's shoot for a moderate risk in 2020.

I'll be black out drunk by 10am...

Can we start a drinking game? Each time Weather Will says "red flag" we take a drink

You weren't addressing dry vs wet in your post. You said it showed all rain. (the ICON at least)

If the precip stays light - that *could* certainly lend some weight towards sig icing. Remember, with heavier rain it's tough to get icing due to the latent heat release. With a light (but perhaps semi steady) rain, fzra could more readily accumulate.

The phase it's in when it heads for the COD is important. A COD visit after going into phase 8/1 is different than it dying after being in the unfavorable ones.

People also seem to have thought process that surface temps are the only thing that determines ratios. It is entirely possible (which I know you know) to have poor ratio snow and have the surface be 18 degrees.

Not for me. lol

Holy cow... Did the heat run or are you not very well insulated?

Assuming the most we'll get is a gusty shower. First meh of 2020 from me.

A little early for me to make my annual thread - I"ll wait at least another few weeks

When it increases the weenie looks even more.