Kmlwx

18z NAM nest is FIERCE for the immediate metro area tomorrow between 22z and 00z roughly. Even some decent UD helicity swaths.

Surprised it's even 40%. I guess the boundary bears watching.

Dews are still 60+ almost everywhere. Even some stations at 64+. Could indicate a slightly increased chance of something later on. None of the models seem interested.

Dews are still well into the 60s at many stations in the area.

As much as I like snow - the one thing that I really like about severe season around here is that things can sneak up on your much more easily than with winter weather. Sure, we can get an overperforming clipper. But not often do you have something like a severe day that is expected to be nothing, and ends up with multiple tornadoes in the area. Happens semi frequently...you just ever know for sure what's going to happen (or not happen). Sure, we get burned more often than not - but the surprise days where we end up tracking hundreds of warnings is sure an adrenaline rush. And before anybody brings up the ethical thing...I don't HOPE for destruction - but if it's plowing through the area I'm of course going to be tracking it and fascinated by the mechanics behind it.

Seems like a multicell cluster/pulsey kind of day.

I'm scraping the weenie-ism barrel here - but maybe that line up in PA will leave a boundary along its southern edge to trigger something later.

Do we need to revoke your weather weenie status?! We all know that unless you're actually in a watch - there won't be any severe even an inch outside the box

The longer range HRRR and HRRRv4's are looking pretty decent for coverage in the area tomorrow. Severity is another question - but I'd say we'll get storms tomorrow.

In my mind - the only two things that could "save" today are 1) An aggressive cold pool that performs better than expected at sustaining some sort of complex. 2) @Eskimo Joe's reminder that sometimes these things sag a bit more south and east than expected. But the fat lady is warming up.

The models are much more enthused for DC proper for tomorrow. I'm starting to prepare to punt today.

That being said - I wonder what models looked like on a day like June 29, 2012. I could see the one wild card being if a good cold pool can really get established and sustain activity. Not sure if that would be modeled well prior to initiation.

Yeah, today is not looking all that good for severe weenies.

1730z SPC update removed DC proper (and MoCo) from the SLGT.

I'm kind of not that enthused about any particular days in this threat window. @Eskimo Joe seems like he might be right about tomorrow being a dying complex. Thursday's parameters aren't really there - Friday looks like the instability is focused to the north and west. Would be pretty DCish to fail on everything. However, I will say with all that's going on down in DC, the last thing we probably want is large scale power outages...

18z NAM nest has a comical DC area split.

Look at hr108 on the 12z CIPS guidance

The 18z NAM has the axis of good parameters a bit closer to the DC metro this run.

I just re-read that and - Hail the size of comets.

Indeed. GFS doesn't look "bad" - it's always lower end than the NAM on svr.

Mainly NAM - but even the GFS has printed out a few good hailer results here and there.

This has been the most intriguing part to me - we don't normally get good hail results in SARS like this -

I agree with both of you. I think what @Eskimo Joe is pointing out - is that this isn't triple digit heat. So it won't be a 2012 style scenario. My expectations are a bit tempered because of that - but also because there seems to be a consistent signal to keep the main focus to our north and/or west. That's two easy ways we could underperform.The high end on this from SPC is probably a 30% wind enhanced. With the potential of good mid-level lapse rates - there could be a good hailer somewhere too. Our best hope for something more than meh is for a cold pool to establish very well and then to get a forward propagating MCS that sustains as it sags south

NAM nest at range has the timing not as favorable for us - by 0z (end of the run) the line is still up in PA for the most part. Would like to see that speed up a bit. It matches well with the SPC outlook of the best threat being to our north mainly.

12z NAM (12km) has mid-level lapse rates in the 7.6-7.9 range for 18z Wednesday.