Kmlwx

Pulled a forecast sounding from the NAM - right around Loudoun County - and it has 1800ish J/kg of CAPE and a ridiculous looking hodo.

Yes was just going to post - there is legit instability in the corridor on the 0z NAM. Still the NAM out in time, though. We'll see what the GFS says - I'm sure it'll be down to Earth a bit more.

And it looks like around 55-65 knots around 925mb at 12z Mon morning. Looks like the height for that is around 720m - so a bit over 2,000ft. Wonder how much of that will be able to transfer down to the surface in showers/storms.

I've already seen some wasps and bees. Plenty of spiders too!

12z Euro at 240 has another big time storm system. Has a sub 980mb low in northern Ohio. Maps suggest that could be another threat.

Easily would be similar to April 27-28 2011 - but of course maybe not with that duration. The duration on that event was something I'm not sure we're going to see again outside of a tropical system.

Imagine getting this same system with 85 degree temps and 70 degree dews in a month or two...and better timing maybe.

Well it's weird because the PPF shows a big blob over us with reports. SPC Storm Archive appears to go back to 2000 - maybe some events are missing? Lemme grab a screenshot. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/ There's a 3/14 event - but it doesn't match this at all.

It's showing an event from 03/13/2001 but I can't find anything matching that in the SPC Event Archive. I wonder if the date is wrong...

96hr mark on CIPS is starting to light up more than before.

I haven't even looked at any potential of big synoptic wind behind the system either - with a storm of this nature that's always a threat as well. And like you said, any strong winds on saturated ground is going to do some damage. I still maintain that I'd prefer to be down in SEVA - but things look okay right now even up our way. Encouraged also by these dynamic systems - gives me hope we can line up something in May or June with a lot more instability and maybe still good shear etc.

I think the biggest questions we need to answer are - How much surface based instability is going to be available locally in DC/Balt: Right now that looks like maybe a max of 500J/kg in a narrow tongue - Will the wind field be well-timed with whatever we get?: Models had been suggesting the best winds would be racing well east of our area by 15z, that slowing has continued, though. - Does any sort of mini-low form separate from the system? It looks more consolidated on some of the more recent guidance.

The one thing that keeps me muted on Monday (other than our usual "we always fail" mantra) is how much rainfall is progged for Sun night to Mon AM - that could serve to just stabilize the heck out of us.

In fact, that GFS run seems to indicate there could be some instability around in a narrow band at around 15z. Also, some of the winds at 15z and 18z are stronger than last run. Keep the trend going!

6z GFS was a smidge slower again it looks like.

Looking at the sounding climatology page on the SPC site - it looks like some of the 925mb and 850mb wind speeds the models are putting out for Monday around 12z, they'd be near record levels...not just for the date but in general.

Last 4 runs of GFS - clear trend.

At some point, the trend is likely to slow or stop...and the GFS is still a fast outlier. Easy to toss with the other models against it - but it could also be a compromise. EE rule? lol

Also - while not a BIG signal by any means - the 108hr on CIPS from from the 12z suite is showing some severe potential in the Mid-Atlantic/PA area. 5/6-7/1991 is showing up for a few runs now. 4/16/1994 as well 4/19-20/2013 which looks good on the maps.

I'd feel much better if I was sitting down in Richmond or elsewhere in SEVA for this. I'll track it until we fail...but I'm just not sure this is going to be a win for us. Certainly a low probability thing up near mappyville.

For Monday - The 12z EURO warms us pretty nicely (low to mid 80s in VA even). Has a little low down in southern VA. Not sure that'll do it for us up here. It'll be a close call regardless. Still time to go - a bit more of a slowing trend would help us as well perhaps. A front crossing between 21z and 0z would be ideal from a heating standpoint.

Attention gets to turn to Monday potential now. Latest GFS sends a little low through NC it looks like. Not going to do it for us.

Take a look at those velocity returns behind the front back on the WV/VA border. Seeing 65mph pixels. Beam is a few thousand feet up there, though.

Interesting because that is a very common "starting point" for damaging wind cores into the metro area. I can recall a few that had a big bundle of great velocity returns on radar before dealing damage into the metro area. Believe there was one in July earlier in the 2010s.

Core of damaging winds.