Kmlwx

The wind just off the surface is so impressive. I honestly might be more impressed by that than any severe parameters for us

15z SREF Tor Ingredients product has the 45 line kissing DC. That's an improvement from the prior run. @Eskimo Joe - I don't see s hitting moderate for this event. The closest I see a moderate getting is potentially to RIC. I see our ceiling in terms of the SPC scale at ENH. But that's not to say Mon won't be a fun day - it certainly could be. Although.....imagine if the models juice things up all the way to game time. I think I've just become way more conservative with weather since my debut on the forums in 2006.

NAM nest is pretty tame with winds behind the line it looks like. But even outside of sig storms AHEAD of the line, the model shows gusts over 50 knots in big parts of our area. That's HWW criteria. Going to be some power outages with that.

NAM nest sends a line through at 17-20z. That's about as good as we can get for this event. I'll be intrigued to see what the models show for synoptic wind after the front too.

I'm guessing the GFS will (as always) spit out substantially lower CAPE values. Compromise in the middle would still be an active day. We seldom hit our "ceilings" on events - and I doubt we hit the ceiling on this one as well. But as CWG said...could be a turbulent morning/afternoon.

50-55 knots of wind at 925mb still at 18z on Monday per the 12k NAM 75 knots at the 850mb level around DC at the same time. There's 90+kt 850 winds on the Eastern Shore at that time...

There appears to have been a bit of a tendency to fatten up the CAPE a bit too on the soundings. Not a ton - but it had the "tall skinny" look a bit and it looks wider now.

18z NAM (looking at the 12km right now) is a bit slower it seems. It's pushing the nose of instability through the area between like 17z and 21z.

Now we wait for the inevitable NAM run or HRRR run that socks us in and has like 3J/kg of CAPR

Yes LWX indicates high wind watches are likely coming. Especially for ridge tops and Northern Maryland

I don't like when SPC is upgrading so early. Recipe for a superstitious bust lol

I could see mod for them. Not sure we'll be any higher than slight until uncertainty is less

30% D3 for the Carolinas also pretty robust.

Day 3 updates are extremely rare around these parts. Wow. They must really want to communicate the potential threat. Otherwise - why not just wait for an official outlook update tonight for D2?

I'm not sure we'll get much sun - that is still very much to be determined. I think there might be enough heavy rain the night before leftover to spoil that aspect of it.

NAM looks to have mostly held serve. No appreciable changes with the timing it seems. Still looks like 14z-18z would be the best parameters.

Also a note - CIPS keeps really hitting an event from May 1991 hard. I looked in the NCDC storm report database and it was a decent event in parts of the area. Focused north. There was a 70mph gust it looks like in northern Maryland.

I even think an 11am arrival time could do relatively well for us. I'm thinking a show time of 19z or later is mostly off the table. Maybe we compromise with the models slowing a bit but then the line/whatever it is arriving earlier. Gut says 10am-2pm could be the time to watch.

The slowing trend isn't as pronounced anymore - the other thing to consider is these squally type things do tend to come in a bit earlier than forecast. But the NAM keeps wanting to up the game. Insert all the usual "NAM at longer ranges" caveats.

Ohhh man. If you're close to going big...

The realist in me is expecting gusty showers or a gusty squall at best. But Feb 7 remains pretty highlighted in my mind. Things certainly haven't trended badly for us if you want some excitement. And if the recent Euro runs are right - we might do it all over again about 7 days later.

Of note - the Euro (and to a much lesser extent the GFS) are still hinting at another storm system around the same time the following week. Euro has a 980ish low to our north still.

06z GFS has 925 winds of 65kts over the area 15z Monday. Still pretty strong at 18z too - but the best winds are pulling north and east by then.

The 06z NAM appears to have been an improvement again. SARS is even lighting up with sounding matches from the database at some points in our area. It maintains instability and puts good supercell and sigtor parameters in our area Mon.

80kt 850 winds at 12z Mon AM on the 00z NAM over the area.