Kmlwx
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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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The new SPC D1 is pretty lame lol. For the superstitious folks out there that's probably exciting news.
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IT'S HAPPENING
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From the 03z SREF products on the SPC page -
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True - and it's already day-of. I think in the past we had treated this one as more like the winter-time "Long Range Discussion" thread. Arguments for both I guess - I definitely don't mind staying here. Though for anybody reading back in future years - does make it easier to find if it's a separate event thread. Let's stay here.
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The 06z 3km NAM is really nice around 16-17z locally too. Good UH tracks too...those are weak sauce on the HRRR for now.
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Should we migrate to the obs thread? Or should we split into a thread specifically for this event? I realize it's kind of late into the event...but still something to consider. @mappy - what say the mods?
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It could be - nice when it improves in closing, though. What run are you looking at? You know the joke - the HRRR will be right 2 hours after our event!
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This batch of rain is going to be really bad for later. Even areas of my parent's yard (I'm in Colesville today) are completely water logged and spongy. There is major ponding. We are moving all of our cars out from under trees once the rain tapers off.
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Thanks!
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Thank you!!
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Ready for my prefrontal wind.
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My ceiling scenario for the D1 would be 10% TOR w or w/o hatching to the Mason Dixon Line, 45% wind, 15% hail. I think that's max for us.
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My call for the new D1 outlook will be (for DC proper) 5% TOR with the 10% very nearby. 30% wind and 15% hail.
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Still time for that to happen, though. It would be great if we weren't socked in tomorrow morning when the sun came up.
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This always happens as we close - things slow down but ultimately the storms race out faster.
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Also a linear system back in western MS producing winds of up to 70mph according to the warning.
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A lot of the CAMs (like the ARW, ARW2, NMM) want to throw all the eggs into the morning stuff and don't really have all that much for the 2nd round. I honestly would not be surprised if only one round really comes to fruition. Which one that is will probably determine our threat. It looks like a corridor to watch is going to be a slightly steeper angle than I-95 and running from like DC southward to the RIC area.
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The 21z RAP is coming in with upwards of 2300 (corrected) 180mb MLCAPE Pockets of 2600 SBCAPE...
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You rock. No rush. It's ultimately not that urgent. I see all kinds of pretty ones on Twitter during events and I've never gotten around to loading something other than the default.
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Biggest issue I have with the velocity color tables I'm using now is they aren't bright enough. I think they are actually the defaults. If they work with level 2 data would you mind sharing? DM me? Thanks!
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Slightly OT - but who has a good BV and SRV color table for GR2Analyst?
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I mean - if we can get 20 hours of tornado watches from 2011 - maybe we can get something like this
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SIm reflectivity probably won't be 100% useful until the models get a good lock on the evolution of convection overnight.
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NAM parameters are much less impressive in Central Maryland this go around. The best stuff stays just south of DC. This is on the 12km The 3km looks better
