Kmlwx
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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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Seems like with a lack of forcing - we might have to rely on a cold pool getting established. Has obviously helped us before. We'll see - still far enough out that anything is on the table.
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18z NAM soundings (at range, I know) are still populating a crapton of hail soundings in SARS for Wednesday.
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18z GFS soundings for the severe potential this upcoming week have SARS results spitting out some big hail results.
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Wow - don't see that too often!
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In all fairness - I guess it *was* way back in 2000. We've come a long way with research and NWP. I don't doubt that a bust like that can still occur - but hopefully not to that degree.
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95mph winds.
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Wow - that was a quick recall. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/watch.phtml?year=2000&num=666 Anybody have the watch text?
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What month was that?
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EMLs really do seem to be our "magic bullet" for our highest end events - at least of the derecho variety.
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Triple digit temps and like 5500 CAPE. Not sure we'll see something like that for a long while. I think if anything the trajectory of an MCS next week could be similar - impacts you'd have to assume would be much lower.
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What is striking to me - not that we didn't all already know this...but how insanely widespread and striking that report map and PPF map is from 2012. Insane.
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Here's what I predict - it will start looking REALLY ripe in the next few model cycles. And then by the time the day rolls around - it will be a miserable failure with socked in clouds and crap mid-level lapse rates.
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Don't look now...but the 12z CIPS analogs in the Southeast domain have June 29, 2012 in the analogs - along with some other VERY robust events. The domain that is over us isn't showing much for now - but that period really bears watching now. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F132&rundt=2020052912&map=thbPPF
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Take a look at mid-level lapse rates at hour 264 on the 12z GFS. If only that weren't an eternity away.
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For next Wednesday PM. Not too shabby from the GFS at this range.
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I think we had better severe in February than May
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Hope June gets more exciting. I don't need days, on days of severe - but a nice line or something area-wide would be nice. Even just a good lightning show at this point. Talk about a snoozefest.
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It has been a terribly boring stretch for lovers of exciting weather...I've been bored - luckily have been in the process of moving so other things have been occupying time. Would love a nice event to track. We wait.
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I'm fine with cooler than average - summers get wayyyy too hot and muggy in these parts. Only exception would be to fuel some nice severe storms.
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Weather has been pretty boring locally for the most part. This cool weather is VERY refreshing - you just know the 90+ temps and 70 degree dewpoints have to come at some point.
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0z CIPS guidance has backed off of that run now.
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Too early to tell - but the 0z CIPS guidance is throwing out some analogs that could be interesting in the 120hr time frame. The event right before June 4, 2008 is showing up ETA: It was May 31, 2008 and that was a moderate risk day for us. Then we all know what happened a few days later...
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December 5th, 2022 - around 8pm.
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Yeah - it's been on the COD website for a bit. But it looks like v4 only runs on the 6 hour cycle runs. It's not hourly yet at least not on the COD website.
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Wonder how things would have been different had they gone with the FIM instead of the FV3.
