Kmlwx

SPC has been throwing out mention of the *chance* of severe potential towards next weekend in the D4-8 outlooks the last day or two. Too far out.

Bull-gear went bad. That's about the longest repair that the radar can have to endure. Add that to the fact that ROC (Radar Operations Center) is busy rebuilding the Lake Charles site. Bull-gear requires upwards of 15,000 pounds of equipment to be lifted into the radome and then for the entire unit to be lifted up so the gear can be serviced/replaced.

6 days ahead of schedule is excellent work by ROC. They said the 16th...

It was *not* supposed to be fixed yesterday. It was supposed to be evaluated for next steps yesterday (which it was). Bull-gear failure and it will likely be down for 10+ days.

Can you imagine this vort pass in prime winter? This is for the Tue/Wed event.

I'm having a hard time remembering what the cloud cover/precip situation was just ahead of the Sept 2012 event. Based on the SPC events page, it looks like that might have been an event that started earlier in the day. We had mesoscale discussions by mid morning it seems. It seems the guidance wants to track the low nearby or even to the southeast. The low being SE of us is going to probably nix any severe potential. We'll need to see if that trends back north and west a bit.

CIPS has backed way off - par for the course.

This vort pass coming Tue/Wed would probably be nice in winter

CTP's radar is also offline - but based on their status message it sounds like that'll be a brief outage once parts arrive.

The LWX radar is the "worst case" scenario - it's the bull-gear. They won't even be discussing next steps until a joint meeting on Monday. Thereafter it looks like the radar is going to be down for a minimum of a week - but likely longer.

CIPS is still highlighting this analog - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120918

What I found interesting is that this failure occurred right after an upgrade or other maintenance. Assuming it's just a coincidence. Lake Charles should DEFINITELY get preference. Is there some sort of contingency that allows them to work on multiple 88Ds at once? Rare case but what if a major storm took out 2 or 3 radars in short order. I guess it's a personnel numbers type thing - can't imagine there's a ton of folks able to do work on radars. ETA: This failure probably guarantees the event of the season on Tuesday

Haven't read back in the thread yet - but it sounds like the LWX radar had a pretty serious failure.

0z GFS vs 0z Euro at hr144 lol

Euro is like comically slower than last run.

GFS is slower again and appears to be more amped again.

Last 8 runs of GFS.

Man...the 12z Euro looked robust at H5

CMC and ICON also look to have stepped a bit in that direction too. Lots to change but this is one to watch.

12z GFS looks deeper with the trough. Could be trending towards the Euro. Big implications if that's the case. I was surprised CIPS was so hefty given the big difference in the modeling.

Knowing our luck it will slow but only to Wed AM and ruin the entire event due to bad timing.

Sept 18 2012 is showing up in CIPS. That was a day 2 hatched to day 1 moderate day for us. 10 percent tor and 45 percent wind. Lots of reports too. The SE sector does show 2001 at the number 2 analog spot. I'm officially interested. And CIPS is based on the GFS not even the Euro.......

Also of note, CIPS is really lit up for the 120hr mark on the 00z suite. Bullseye maybe a touch NE of some of us, but right in our backyards.

Don't have a lot of time right now, but the 00z Euro H5 maps have a ln overall resemblance to the reanalysis maps from Sept 24 2001. Mainly in that they both have a deep trough axis cutting through the TN area and ridging out west.

Oh snap. I thought we might be done for the year