Kmlwx

Day 2 on the 0z CIPS guidance. Doubtful the result will match how robust this looks.

Seems tomorrow and Tuesday could have some iso instances of severe. Also - I'm late to the party but it looks like the HRRRv4 is no more. It hasn't been sending data from NCEP - I noticed it on the COD site. Does this mean they'll bring back the v3? Or is v3 the operational?

I think June 4, 2008 stands out for me because of the situation I was in. I had been sneaking peaks at the SPC site and the forums throughout the day. If my memory is correct, I hightailed it home (I walked through a patch of woods from high school to get home back then) and got to watch the bulk of it from home. Grade school made me miss a lot of good events I think June 29, 2012 takes the cake for me though. Simply watching the reports coming in as it came over the mountains is something I'll never forget. I had friends who were on a boat in the bay texting me and acting like I was downplaying the whole thing. A few days after, a few of them reached out to tell me how right I was and how glad they were that I pretty much forced them back to shore.

Thank you! I'll check them out!

I was just reviewing 2008 - severe weenies were truly spoiled that year. Not only did we have regular severe... We had MDTs on May 31, and then June 4, 10, 16. That's for moderates in just over half a month. Dang impressive considering we can go years in some cases without a moderate at all. It's tough enough to get decent slight risk days every few days for a good stretch...

The extended CIPS page has a good signal at hr168 too. This has a been a weird met summer so far...and spring for that matter. Maybe the atmosphere is having COVID hangover like we all are.

June 10, 2008 has been showing up in some of the CIPS analogs. Last night's run it's for the 120 hour mark.

CIPS is seeing something around hr144.

Spring in February.

Latest HRRR run has some decent looking storms coming through around 05z.

Detroit is not the most common place to get a moderate. I guess I'll be living vicariously through them today.

12z CIPS guidance DOES have a bit of an uptick in severe analog risk around the 60hr frame.

Speed it up and I might be interested. Meh.

Not MBY so who cares

Not much to speak of in the Arundel Mills area.

Batting .090

Good storm with a lot of lightning here in the Hanover/Arundel Mills area. Nothing severe, though.

That northern warning looks awfully weak.

It's possible that stuff can roll off the mountains. But my hopes aren't high. We might as well be elementary school little-league at this point.

I'm telling you guys - this is like one of those series of days where we just bat zeroes.

This could end up being one of those 3 or 4 day periods when we just can't buy good storms

High risk or bust

Messier convective mode than the NAM nest, though. We'll see what the CAMs do in subsequent runs.

18z NAM nest is FIERCE for the immediate metro area tomorrow between 22z and 00z roughly. Even some decent UD helicity swaths.

Surprised it's even 40%. I guess the boundary bears watching.