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Kmlwx

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  1. Kmlwx
    This looks to be turning into exactly what the HRRR forecasted most of the day (save for a few runs). Looks like big time cells go WAY south of the metro areas and then a mod-heavy batch of rainfall sweeps through for the rest of us with some embedded thunder. Credit to the HRRR for actually seemingly getting the idea right way earlier today and sticking to it for the most part. Save for a few off runs last night and one or two during the day today - it held pretty steady once it trended away from the Maryland/DC area Uh tracks.
  2. Kmlwx
    Looks like a big shield of stratiform rain with embedded thunder
  3. Kmlwx
    Good amount of lightning with that stuff so far. But pretty compact cells that have that "struggling updraft" look to them. We'll see if they can grow upscale.
  4. Kmlwx
    Radar presentation from LWX is kind of odd - unusual to see a big area of precip and then stuff embedded in it.
  5. Kmlwx
    Already lightning even with the mini cells/showers. WV having a heck of a day...
  6. Kmlwx
    My "goal" is elevated thunderstorms at this point. Still can get that with low dew points at the surface.
  7. Kmlwx
    Looks like 17z will have a Warn-on-Forecast domain run centered over West Virginia.
  8. Kmlwx
    Perhaps not dry - but I wouldn't bank on severe if you're going by the HRRR up here. HRRR could be wrong, of course.
  9. Kmlwx
    HRRR continues to prefer well south...it might still be trending south with the activity too... If I was just going off of the HRRR, I'd probably stop even saying the Potomac as the dividing line...more like somewhere between I-66 and I-64.
  10. Kmlwx
    HREF also focuses most UH tracks south of the Potomac. I think this is reasonable given those areas are much more likely to be south of the boundary and perhaps more susceptible to surface-based convection. Not ruling out storms for MBY - but I'm less enthused up this way (for now).
  11. Kmlwx
    HRRR is focusing the most intense activity south of the Potomac. NAM nest looks better for MBY...and all that to say it's still probably elevated stuff.
  12. Kmlwx
    I saw some breaks in the clouds on the way into work this morning.
  13. Kmlwx
    Me either - I mean I do think we will see some sort of elevated thunderstorm activity moving through (probably after dark) but severe risk remains to be seen. Waste of an EML if it plays out like that.
  14. Kmlwx
    Great writeup as always! One thing I'm noticing is the past few HRRR runs (the ones that go out far enough) have been shifting south with the elevated activity. I'm interested to see if that continues.
  15. Kmlwx
    I think the most excitement would come from us getting to the warmer/more moist side of guidance AND perhaps the storms arriving a bit earlier than currently forecast. This would offset both the waning daytime heating and overall potential for lacking instability. Even elevated convection can be fun, though. This will be an interesting test of the @Eskimo Joe theory that having good MLLR/remnant EML impacts can offset other less favorable factors. Of course, it's not an ace to just have the EML...but we haven't had one in ages.
  16. Kmlwx
    Wow yeah the 6z HRRR looked ferocious on sim reflectivity. We'll see...
  17. Kmlwx
    Not for us (well to our west) but the D4 outlook from SPC. There's an EML plume - shame there isn't better moisture return or warmer temps ahead of it. ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Monday... Further amplification of a broadening mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone is expected across the Upper Great Lakes to the southern ON/QC border area. Poleward moisture quality from the western Gulf will remain sub-optimal, but will continue to improve beneath a lobe of the southern Great Plains EML. The northeast extent of weak surface buoyancy should overspread the OH Valley by Monday afternoon. This portion of the front will coincide with robust 700-500 mb southwesterlies, yielding potential for fast-moving convection. Guidance consensus suggests this will remain the favored corridor for at least a damaging wind threat.
  18. Kmlwx
    The 12z GFS looks similar. It's a shame because the GFS is forecasting VERY steep mid-level lapse rates - just the boundary is too close to use. However, sometimes something strong can ride the front. It's worth watching simply because there's not much else on the horizon for now. I do think that some place nearby (probably just to the SW) could be primed for some sort of isolated severe day.
  19. Kmlwx
    Reaching here...but Monday would have some small potential if the boundary can get north of us. Doesn't look like it happens on the 6z GFS. But instability is not far away. Dewpoints look pretty meager as well. There's some hint of this potential on the CSU MLP maps as well as the NCAR AI page.
  20. Kmlwx
    oh good lord the worst typo ever
  21. Kmlwx
    CFS monthly over on TropicalTidbits shows a ridge west of the center of the country and neutral heights near us for June. I was looking for signs of any potential "ring of fire" pattern - but I'd think that map would put the ridge axis way too far west for that. Though - we'd avoid big HEAT if that were to come true. Then in the July panel it pushes the ridge axis even farther west...not giving it much though - but that would really keep the summer from getting into the baking oven style heat locally.... With the heavy smoothing on super long range progs like that, though - I'd extrapolate that there would be some severe potential whenever transient ridging gives way to an incoming shortwave/storm system. So while it might not be a 2012 derecho-style pattern....it could be a setup for a weekly squall line/front.
  22. Kmlwx
    I hit my goal of being awoken by thunder! All things considered that was a decent line. Sunday looks like it has some low end potential and then we seemingly get shutout for a block of time. No real long range threats I'm seeing.
  23. Kmlwx
    At this point I just want some loud thunder to wake me up from my sleep underneath the WxWatcher blanket.
  24. Kmlwx
    HRRR continues to be insistent that in the pre-dawn hours something nasty will roll through northern Maryland. I remain skeptical...absurd UH track on the latest run.
  25. Kmlwx
    It's only a 20% MCD *but* I love when I make a statement that SPC and WxUSAF agree with! I must be learning! Mesoscale Discussion 0381 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...Portions of West Virginia and northern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032031Z - 032300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms moving into West Virginia may pose a threat of severe weather this afternoon and evening. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, although a watch appears unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...Despite midlevel height rises across the area, low-level warm-air advection continues to support thunderstorm development across eastern Kentucky. The storms are expected to continue moving eastward across West Virginia, though high clouds and poorer boundary-layer moisture (per 18Z RNK sounding) have limited destabilization. With low-level flow (and attendant warm advection) forecast to increase into the evening, there is a threat for the convection to persist. Given the sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear across the area, these storms will have the potential to produce damaging winds, hail, and a tornado. Trends will be monitored through the evening, but a watch appears to be unlikely at this time. ..Jirak/Guyer.. 04/03/2025
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