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Kmlwx

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About Kmlwx

  • Birthday 09/14/1991

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KDCA
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Colesville, MD
  • Interests
    Meteorology, Packers, local crime news

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  1. Kmlwx
    Other than the storms along the Mason/Dixon line last weekend, it's seemingly been a really, really, really quiet stretch for severe on the east coast. Looks like Tue is going to be focused well to our north and west and it peters out by Wednesday. I'm not sure I'm seeing any appreciable "big signal" to exit the boring period. I've been peaking at the long range stuff and CSU/CIPS/NCAR stuff and don't really see anything on the horizon. Similar to winter, it's possible a smaller event comes into focus once it gets to short range view...but for now we are snoozing!
  2. Kmlwx
    Some major damage over the weekend in parts of the area it seems. Saw big branches and debris along I-70 from PA into Maryland. Looks like things will be relatively quiet - maybe a window for some strong storms next Tue or so.
  3. Kmlwx
    This looks to be turning into exactly what the HRRR forecasted most of the day (save for a few runs). Looks like big time cells go WAY south of the metro areas and then a mod-heavy batch of rainfall sweeps through for the rest of us with some embedded thunder. Credit to the HRRR for actually seemingly getting the idea right way earlier today and sticking to it for the most part. Save for a few off runs last night and one or two during the day today - it held pretty steady once it trended away from the Maryland/DC area Uh tracks.
  4. Kmlwx
    Looks like a big shield of stratiform rain with embedded thunder
  5. Kmlwx
    Good amount of lightning with that stuff so far. But pretty compact cells that have that "struggling updraft" look to them. We'll see if they can grow upscale.
  6. Kmlwx
    Radar presentation from LWX is kind of odd - unusual to see a big area of precip and then stuff embedded in it.
  7. Kmlwx
    Already lightning even with the mini cells/showers. WV having a heck of a day...
  8. Kmlwx
    My "goal" is elevated thunderstorms at this point. Still can get that with low dew points at the surface.
  9. Kmlwx
    Looks like 17z will have a Warn-on-Forecast domain run centered over West Virginia.
  10. Kmlwx
    Perhaps not dry - but I wouldn't bank on severe if you're going by the HRRR up here. HRRR could be wrong, of course.
  11. Kmlwx
    HRRR continues to prefer well south...it might still be trending south with the activity too... If I was just going off of the HRRR, I'd probably stop even saying the Potomac as the dividing line...more like somewhere between I-66 and I-64.
  12. Kmlwx
    HREF also focuses most UH tracks south of the Potomac. I think this is reasonable given those areas are much more likely to be south of the boundary and perhaps more susceptible to surface-based convection. Not ruling out storms for MBY - but I'm less enthused up this way (for now).
  13. Kmlwx
    HRRR is focusing the most intense activity south of the Potomac. NAM nest looks better for MBY...and all that to say it's still probably elevated stuff.
  14. Kmlwx
    I saw some breaks in the clouds on the way into work this morning.
  15. Kmlwx
    Me either - I mean I do think we will see some sort of elevated thunderstorm activity moving through (probably after dark) but severe risk remains to be seen. Waste of an EML if it plays out like that.
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