Kmlwx
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About Kmlwx
- Birthday 09/14/1991
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The CAMs are really all over the place (seems to be a common theme this year). I could technically see chunks of the area getting skunked through the whole week...The game of weather lottery!
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It sounds like it will be a process - but lack of budget/funding and retiring faculty. It's very unfortunate!
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Also related but only partially - and apologies if already posted. Saint Louis University is sunsetting their meteorology program and discontinuing CIPS on their site. But Mizzou has agreed to start hosting it - the new link to CIPS is here --> https://analog.missouri.edu/
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SPC discusses potential/conditional need for CIG1 and higher probabilities for D2 depending on timing and such.
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Though I will also say both the NAM and the GFS keep favoring areas to our north and east...hopefully it can bleed south.
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That NAM run also suggests the EML plume (at least somewhat) will be in play.
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Quoting myself but now settled in at the office... My hunch is that ONE of the day performs for many of us - whether it's divided up into 2 days remains to be seen. But even with what @vortex95 said - I think most of us would be skeptical of seeing consecutive days impact the exact same areas. Perhaps the first day hits the M/D line counties more and skunks the rest of us, then perhaps the next day is more of the metro area(s), then a bit too far south for the bulk of the subforum the following day.
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I'm encouraged given the favorable things in place. Then again - we have been burned many times by so many different failure methods. Will be curious to see what guidance looks like as we go forward in time and how the AI/ML guidance trends.
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Close enough for extended period!
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Tuesday through Thursday next week has at least some potential showing on the AI guidance.
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Plenty of lightning right on top of that signature as well.
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Maybe a downburst signature right around North Potomac or a hair NE of there? Probably sub-severe at least at this second but seems to be intensifying
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Maybe trying to cycle back up a bit - doubt it will get back to as intense as it was - but more lightning near Gaithersburg on the last update.
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Taking forever to come south and east
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