Kmlwx
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About Kmlwx
- Birthday 09/14/1991
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Instability for next Monday improved on the Euro it seems. Timing also seems to look a bit better on the GFS.
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They are just so unusual and finicky - and they often are super cagey at range. And the best we can *usually* hope for is a modified EML that loses a lot of punch as it gets to use. The "big events" are the ones that really have a robust one. I haven't done a deep dive - but I'm guessing June 2008 had one, we all know June 2012 had one. Minus an EML - tropical action going to our west is always a good bet for tornadoes.
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Way out there of course - but the 12z GFS pushes the system through too early in the day I think,
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It could be July/August and we'd find a way to cloud over just in time to squash instability
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That discussion indicates we will have similar issues to our prior severe "threats" this year so far. Thermodynamics likely to be lacking. Though again - the further we get into spring, the "easier" it gets to not get wedged in...though if you ask Eskimo Joe you can probably still count on getting wedged in even into June lol.
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It would be so fitting.
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Sub-severe gusty showers possible on Thursday afternoon/evening.
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Looks like things will be quiet for the next block of time locally. Still worth watching that March 25th timeframe but seems to have trended away from a severe threat.
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Radar looks decent for those that are near the storms. Still not much locally in the close metro areas
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Cell near Baseye may try
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There's been almost no progress east with the line. We are past peak heating. If we get to 8pm or so and it's still lagging out to the west we are probably just going to get some showers and sub-severe gusts of wind. Another case where synoptic wind may end up being the bigger story.
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SPC is not enthused. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0235.html
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The HRRR seems to struggle to get the storms to move east (as @wxmeddler just indicated he sees as well) - The 18z NAM nest rolling out now seems a little more compelled to roll the storms east.
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Yeah that one looks solid right now!
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Nice to see you chiming in! I wonder if we actually will get some decent instability with the sunshine arriving for many of us. But my main limiting factor at that point would be if the storms arrive too late once the sun has already set. HRRR seems to suggest it could be 0-3z before some of us see that line.
