Kmlwx
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About Kmlwx
- Birthday 09/14/1991
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18z NAM and NAM nest continue with the theme of no initiation/storms for Thur. Parameters look a bit worse than prior runs as well. Still worth watching.
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12z CSU MLP maps
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And my excuse of "it's still early in the season" gets less relevant each passing day. By April, we often have much better thermodynamic profiles - though May/June would be even better. Though that admittedly won't solve mid-level lapse rates! I will say - yesterday ahead of the storms did feel juicier than the prior few events this year so far. So we are "getting there" in terms of better dew points and temps. One thing I do like is that we haven't had a shortage of "chances" this year so far. While there has sometimes been a week+ between risks, there's been a pretty steady stream of at least potential systems showing up. Thursday has my interest at least for now.
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NAM and NAM nest seem better with parameters for Thursday now - but sim reflectivity doesn't really have any initiation at least on the panels I've seen (through 0z Fri).
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TBWI shows outflow moving out ahead of the storms.
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One nice thing is that the Warn on Forecast domain includes us. More model runs to wring our hands over!!!
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Well if nothing else the 12z IAD sounding has 754 surface CAPE already. Seems likely many of us will see rain/thunder at a minimum today. Side note - it's weird seeing the swath of missing soundings.
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1730z D2 is out. Not many changes.
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Instability for next Monday improved on the Euro it seems. Timing also seems to look a bit better on the GFS.
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They are just so unusual and finicky - and they often are super cagey at range. And the best we can *usually* hope for is a modified EML that loses a lot of punch as it gets to use. The "big events" are the ones that really have a robust one. I haven't done a deep dive - but I'm guessing June 2008 had one, we all know June 2012 had one. Minus an EML - tropical action going to our west is always a good bet for tornadoes.
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Way out there of course - but the 12z GFS pushes the system through too early in the day I think,
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It could be July/August and we'd find a way to cloud over just in time to squash instability
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That discussion indicates we will have similar issues to our prior severe "threats" this year so far. Thermodynamics likely to be lacking. Though again - the further we get into spring, the "easier" it gets to not get wedged in...though if you ask Eskimo Joe you can probably still count on getting wedged in even into June lol.
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It would be so fitting.
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Sub-severe gusty showers possible on Thursday afternoon/evening.
