ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah 2-3 inches won’t survive even if we wedge in the 37-42 degree range. I think areas deeper inland with 4-6” have a decent chance of keeping it if we stay wedged though and don’t torch 50s/60s. But it may not be gone long if Sunday pans out. Did you see the GFS continuing the model war? Lol…literally opposite of EPS. Even the GEFS are trending toward those OP runs.
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You might want to tone it down or take a time out....we give leeway here but you're on the line with abusive behavior.
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GFS essentially turns the western ridge into a temporary block so it doesn't move for a few days...big difference vs other guidance. I won't believe it though until there's better agreement.
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There are massive differences on the GFS and other guidance post-1/30 too....GFS really keeps the flow super amped and meridional while the GGEM and Euro really flatten out that western ridge and just push the whole thing east. The differences in sensible wx during the first week of February would be massive.
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Didn't take much for a GGEM improvement though...low bar...it was super flat at 00z....I'd like to see it amp up more in the next couple cycles.
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Def an improvement on the GFS from previous runs. Still not quite enough for a big event in SNE but it does get advisory snows into CT/RI and maybe even low end warning for SW CT. Not a bad spot 6 days out.
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This post reminds me of weenies years ago who would say the night before a storm "I'm already down to 25 degrees and the NAM said it would be 28F....this going to be a cold bust!!!", only for it not to matter because boundary layer mixing doesn't really affect anything happening aloft.
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He wasn't even posting about the cold tuck...he's posting about whether today's high will be 38F or 33F.
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I'm not sold on a cold tuck for any of us in SNE later Wednesday, but it would def favor further northeast where the source is if it happens. I wouldn't look at today's temps as any predictor of what a cold tuck would do 60 hours from now.
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ICON was close for next Sunday....gave S RI over to far SE MA advisory type snows.
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That could be an issue with icing since aloft has warmed by then. Still a lot of light precip/drizzle around for that, so if you cold tuck into the upper 20s, that could get ugly.
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That's for 14z which was 50 minutes ago....PSM was still only 21 at that point and MHT was 16F...it doesn't look that bad.
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06z EPS is definitely more amped for next Monday than the 00z run....will be interesting to see if that trend is real....12z should be interesting and I'd like to see other guidance become more bullish.
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Yeah if we got like a moderate 4-8/6-10 type event next Monday, that would for sure change the feel...it would put many above average for January.
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I dunno, I could see either verifying....esp down in SNE....if I was further north up into S NH, I'd def fade the Euro.
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Crazy how much warmer the Euro is for late week than other guidance....GFS/GGEM struggle to get it out of the 30s with the wedge. Euro goes 60s.
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You're trying to time the southern stream to amplify enough while the northern stream presses just enough to get cold into here for next Sunday night/monday. Def threading the needle.
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
ORH_wxman replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
They bring the -EPO back. EPS seems to lag on that....looked like ti wanted to at the end, but it would take several more days. -
GFS turns the central CONUS and Canada ridging into a psuedo block and allows a lot of meridional flow on the east side of it which allows those cold shots.
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Yeah that pattern was kind of nuts. Beijing had their coldest december on record…PAC jet on ‘roids which gave that CONUS chinook.
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Pretty much. Macro forecasting is typically easier because you don’t have to worry about smaller scale nuances that can’t be predicted in advance. Stuff like NAO blocks have proven time and again to be mostly stochastic.
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NNE won’t lose any pack between now and 2/1. Remains to be seen how warm it gets beyond that….somewhere after the first few days of the month looks warm.
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Spikes you Thursday. But N of pike is more precarious. Re-wedge happens Friday for anyone who spiked Thursday.
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More like 2” or so. Possible we get more but that’s what euro showed.
