ORH_wxman

Yeah icon would prob be decent if it went out further. Much better northern stream look. Don’t really care what icon shows though…but that’s the N stream look you want on the varsity models.

Agreed. Though any other guidance showing it does help confidence. But my view is either this is going to come back quickly or it’s gone. I’d expect to see clear improvements by 12z tomorrow if a decent hit is going to happen.

Yeah I’m actually not quite as discouraged as I normally would be due to the northern stream being the biggest culprit here. We might be screwed anyway, but I don’t think it’s the southern stream trending slower. It actually ejected slightly quicker than the 00z run but the northern stream isn’t digging much at all this run. That is the culprit. If that trend continues then we’re def screwed but since it’s the very fast northern stream with that shortwave still almost on the other side of the pacific, I have some hope that it comes back a bit stronger.

Yeah the southern stream is actually ejecting decently this run but that northern shortwave never really digs until much later which is bad. We still almost get an event regardless but we need that northern shortwave to come in a bit deeper.

Yeah it’s very hard to get rain in this. Esp over the interior. The biggest threat is a missed phase and wide right and that is probably the most likely solution right now. Could still be light snows from the northern stream but it wouldn’t be a major event.

It’s happened many times in the past but we’ve also had plenty of storms that just disappeared for good in the D5-6 range and never came back. If we got all garbage solutions at 12z it’s definitely concerning.

Yeah me too. It might not be a HECS/MECS but the longwave positions are pretty favorable to try and get something going. If it ends up more northern stream, it might take until we get closer to see some response at the sfc. But we’ll see. Been burned so many times the last couple years. At least we have a block to our northeast so it’s not completely threading the needle for the interior folks…I know it’s not a ton of consolidation for your area which might need a bit more precise track.

Flip flop on guidance. Wanna see some more consensus today.

Lol, reminds me of ecmwf.int sending emails in 2009. One of my few meltdowns on here.

I remember waiting for it to update on weather.unisys.com. Usually around 8pm. Then it was more like 6-7pm in the 2003ish years. I think that site went defunct like 6-8 years ago. Lol.

Yeah that more positively tilted than 12z so prob less impactful but we wouldn’t know for sure unless we saw more panels. But good to still see plenty of southern stream involvement.

Block up north will give a limit to this. But yeah, even with the block it could still theoretically try and cut up through NYC or some crap…but I’d put the probability fairly low right now. You need a lot of downstream ridging into Quebec to make that happen and the block will try and prevent that downstream ridging up north from getting extreme.

Post H5

Yeah I wouldn’t even care about the dryslot on that if we actually got the front end. Reminds me of the Mar ‘17 front ender. I think I had 15” in about 8 hours on that.

Nah that one tracked due north over eastern MA even just west of BOS.

No Dec ‘92…that storm was stalled for like 30+ hours, lol.

Go back a few frames. It gets pretty tucked under LI.

The entire forum should be. Slightly less leery down in SW CT but the majority of us always hold our breath on them. But beggars can’t be choosers at this point. We’ll take any plowable snowstorm right now.

That’s tucked but thankfully that block up north helps keep those 925s solid. Still tough for immediate coast at the height of it but just inland would slay.

Much rather have those two models showing garbage than the GFS/Euro showing that. We’ll see if we get some more agreement at 00z.

EPS ensembles. Still some work to do but a big improvement.

I’ll only post that if the 1/10-1/15 period fails.

Yeah I was mentioning the other day that this type of NAO is usually more favorable for our region. It still allows room to pin low heights in the 50/50 region but it’s not so overwhelming that it suppresses everything. That type of NAO is also less likely to link up with a SE ridge too because it’s coming from the wrong direction for that.