ORH_wxman

They bring the -EPO back. EPS seems to lag on that....looked like ti wanted to at the end, but it would take several more days.

GFS turns the central CONUS and Canada ridging into a psuedo block and allows a lot of meridional flow on the east side of it which allows those cold shots.

Yeah that pattern was kind of nuts. Beijing had their coldest december on record…PAC jet on ‘roids which gave that CONUS chinook.

Pretty much. Macro forecasting is typically easier because you don’t have to worry about smaller scale nuances that can’t be predicted in advance. Stuff like NAO blocks have proven time and again to be mostly stochastic.

NNE won’t lose any pack between now and 2/1. Remains to be seen how warm it gets beyond that….somewhere after the first few days of the month looks warm.

Spikes you Thursday. But N of pike is more precarious. Re-wedge happens Friday for anyone who spiked Thursday.

More like 2” or so. Possible we get more but that’s what euro showed.

GOM had a massive heat content increase years ago due to a weakening of the Labrador current. I remember reading about this in papers back like 10-15 years ago and it’s still ongoing. They had a similar thing happen in the 1940s I think where they then spiked really warm for about a decade period circa late 40s into mid 50s before reversing again. (Check out some of the warmth back then for MA/NH/ME) CC affecting the ocean currents is still obviously somewhat of a frontier in the literature but I suspect if CC helps in weakening the Labrador current, then you wouldn’t see the same reversal again. Of course, we could go all “Day After Tomorrow” and the whole North Atlantic gets less salty and we all abruptly freeze when the thermohaline circulation weakens.

I feel like top end high temps have been less frequent but the humidity has been higher. That’s fairly consistent though since it’s hard to get reach high end maximum temps with humid airmasses. You want dry airmasses.

The funny thing is I was going to say to Ray (and then subsequently forgot) is that CC warming would probably try to inch to mean position of the CF westward…which would help him. I don’t know if that’s actually the case, but from a conceptual standpoint it makes sense.

I dunno…it’s anecdotal to me to say “we’re mostly getting 17F south shore Coke line storms” with CC. Id honestly say the opposite, but that’s the beauty of anecdotes….we basically just tell our own story of obs. The truth would require doing an independent tally of these storms and the temps. Those frigid coke line storms happened with so much frequency years ago from the 1990s into early 2000s. Recently, that area has been taken the woodshed…really since the 2015 snowgasm. But trying to parse out CC attribution on SNE snowstorm jackpots over a 6 year period is probably between impossible and harder than impossible.

Highly doubt CC has “created” a 15 mile wide screw zine where you are. That’s so small and nuanced it is extremely unlikely.

Yeah I think there’s a small window to sneak it north on Thursday but it quickly gets erased with the approaching low pressure from the southwest which re-establishes the wedge.

Yeah it could spike on Thursday, but it honestly wouldn’t surprise me to see 30s/40s on a full wedge…was the Euro the only guidance that spiked us? I saw GFS never got us out of the sfc wedge but I haven’t looked super closely at all guidance yet this morning from last night.

Nice band rotating south

Yeah if we’re gonna be wedged all week, might as well get some snow ahead of it. Euro traps the 1/28 shortwave in the southwest this run.

Euro wasn’t very enthused for Tuesday night/early Wednesday. There’s enough cold initially but not much precip. Maybe only an inch or two.

Prob gonna be tough to get a lot of winter precip next week south of the pike and maybe even south of MA/NH border but we’ll see...wouldn’t take much to get a widespread 3-5” in SNE for Tuesday night. I do think 1/28 and beyond is getting more interesting for sure though even if next week doesn’t produce much.

GGEM was pretty cold next week. In addition to the snow on Tuesday night’s event, had some sleet and ice over interior SNE on the 2nd event which was warmer on yesterday’s guidance. Then it goes like the GFS (or even a little colder) for the 3rd event around 1/28…mostly snow for that one.

If guidance is too weak and slow with MJO progression, then we’d prob be back in phase 7/8 by Feb 7-10…that would likely have some changes in the way guidance looks. It’s been too weak all year on models. There’s other factors at play but a robust MJO will def have influence. Weaker wave has less.

The ensembles are pretty bullish on something around 1/30 as well. There’s a very pronounced PNA ridge spike during that time which is prob why we’re seeing it show up this far out. Tip already mentioned this a day or two ago as a period of interest. Next week is all nuanced. We may get a nice burst on Tuesday or it could be a degree too warm aloft. Won’t know until we’re closer.

It was tongue-in-cheek. Weeklies have been abysmal. But certainly a decent period in February wouldn’t be that weird in El Niño. That end of month look is becoming more intriguing.

Don't worry, the weeklies save us 2nd half of February and into early March....they will be 100% correct too.

Phase 6/7 in February should be ok here...they are both torchy for Canada in El Nino, but they are near or BN here with a lot of low heights to our northeast, so maybe we can catch some events in our own corner while upper plains and central Canada are torching. But who knows....we seem to find bad versions of every pattern recently.....although next week trended better on the Euro...maybe we can actually grba an advisory snowfall out of that,

ORH has over 20" for the month to date....and obviously some points over the interior toward Ray and up into CNE have over 20" on the month as well. Coastline and SE MA and back to the south coast has def been screwed though. Today is a perfect example of missing on a very favorable longwave look. You have a ridge out west, you have a decaying NAO block over Hudson Bay, you have very cold air in place and low heights out to the 50/50 region....but we whiffed because the 50/50 low didn't separate enough from the PV lobe dropping into the midwest. If it had, you'd be talking a major snowstorm and the rhetoric in here would be totally different.