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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    At least it looks like if the track is similar to 1/7, we’ll be significantly colder with that high trying to press down and getting that airmass ingested.
  2. ORH_wxman
    That clipper shortwave at the end of next week is pretty interesting too. It’s been on almost all guidance but some of the models suppress it but GFS has been more bullish for us. I’d love a nice old school clipper that gives us a solid 3-6 on top of existing pack. We finally have a western ridge with an active northern stream…something we’ve lacked much of the last few winters…and that type of pattern is good for clippers.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Draws down some colder air in the CCB…temps would def be less of an issue on that look. They’d be marginal at the onset but once it got cranking, you have like -6 at 925 ingested into the system.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Yes and this has some juice to it. It’s not going to put up 20-burgers all over the place but there’s potential for a widespread 10-14” if it breaks right. 2/9/17 is another quick hitter that comes to mind that kind of reminds me of this….produced a lot of 10-14” amounts even though the event was basically a 9-12 hour job. Be leery of the north trend though on the southern streamers.
  5. ORH_wxman
    CIPS is based off the 12z GFS today…so the analogs are going to have a lot of suppressed systems.
  6. ORH_wxman
    I wouldn’t throw in the towel yet there. You might be in a good spot when we’re looking at this on Sunday.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I’m slightly surprised at where it is right now. Expected it to be further north but there’s plenty of time for trends…1/7 was a southern streamer that juiced back north in the final 84h.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Nice ML goodies for CT/RI/SE MA that run. Maybe even tickling the pike. Starting to get some movement toward the model consensus now on the outliers (ICON went south and GFS went north)
  9. ORH_wxman
    18z icon still pretty amped but not as much as 12z. Not a big surprise given it was the northern outlier on the 12z suite.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Negative Neutral Then we had a weak Nino in 2014-15
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it’s funny how a lot of the fast movers don’t have much wind. Though 12/9/05 would beg to differ…but they seem to be the rare exception rather than the rule.
  12. ORH_wxman
    I’m intrigued by that Feb 17-18 period. All guidance has a pretty broad southern stream wave…question is whether we can amplify it into the PV lobe over S E Canada.
  13. ORH_wxman
    I don’t mind it being south at the moment.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Everything south at 12z except ICON.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Locked
  16. ORH_wxman
    Man, GGEM barely gets much up here either....CT/RI special. How about a 70/30 compromise in favor of EPS?
  17. ORH_wxman
    North of 00z by a tick....didn't matter...potent southern streamers find ways to amp up frequently.
  18. ORH_wxman
    I'm considering anything from this storm pure gravy. Would be nice to score on a marginal setup, but it's never looked like anything other than marginal even on the good runs.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Too bullish in MA
  20. ORH_wxman
    So GFS/GEFS are a whiff/near-whiff while the 06z EPS is ripping the low into LI. Glad to see we've cleared up everything.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Yeah agreed. I was thinking our first big shot was Feb 16-18 range but there’s definitely another window there after 2/20. I like seeing the block north of AK too because it keeps the source region pretty cold. That helps in avoiding a totally rotted airmass with the -NAO. We had that problem in late Feb/early Mar 2010.
  22. ORH_wxman
    18z eps came SE a solid tick. Still a lot of time for this one to keep shifting
  23. ORH_wxman
    I think that storm was on Veterans Day so they already had the day off and it ended predawn on the 12th. A lot of snow fell during the night of the 11th and predawn the 12th but then it was out the door.
  24. ORH_wxman
    18z GEFS still has a decent spread but there’s a surprising number of members that never get the storm to our latitude
  25. ORH_wxman
    Tons of preemptive cope and reverse psychology. We know the drill by now. I’ll ask people to keep this thread cleaner though. Keep the focus on this system and not personal depression on how this winter is going. Everyone already knows how bad it’s been south of the pike.
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