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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    I’d say the two dates to watch in the next couple weeks for snow potential are 1/3 and 1/8. The earlier system around new years looks too warm…maybe NNE can grab something from that. 1/3 isn’t supported by euro suite but GFS has been trying to amplify a wave behind the NY system. 1/8 is a more supported longwave look. But obviously too far out to really have a strong signal yet but there’s been a weak one for a couple days.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Be sure to tell RIC weenies that they can lock in their entire seasonal snowfall climo in one storm these next couple weeks.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Think we had about 15-17” or so in 1995 in ORH. But we had some extra snow OTG from 12/9 which made it a glacier base whereas closer to the coast didn’t do as well in that one.
  4. ORH_wxman
    The “falling on Christmas” was always made up at least as far back from when I was a kid. All the Mets used to say a white Xmas meant 1” or more OTG at 12z Xmas morning. Maybe there was some other definition back during the days of snow up to thy knickers. Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkuh weenies.
  5. ORH_wxman
    It helps that they have like 20+ hours of darkness though.
  6. ORH_wxman
    The threat on Jan 1-2 has subtly cooled today on guidance. I am skeptical for SNE on a lot of wintry precip for that one. But it could trend enough for CNE and NNE. But yeah, the time range still makes something more interesting down here at least plausible. I really like the look after that system but it would be a great bonus to score anything from Jan 1-2.
  7. ORH_wxman
    A little bit grinchy on the Cape with temps near 40F. They did already have several inches OTG though. Might get some OES later tomorrow too.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Prob not gonna get more than a half inch but it’s nice to refresh the snow from the other day after my boys trampled all over it
  9. ORH_wxman
    Snowing good now in this second band. Baking powder borderline moderate. Everything covered ina fresh coating
  10. ORH_wxman
    He’s not gonna answer until he wakes up and shakes off the hangover at noontime. He does this every 1-2 weeks during winter when the libations are flowing generously.
  11. ORH_wxman
    First band disintegrated as it got here. Not really surprising. Steady light snow but prob like 1-2 mile vis. We’ll se if band #2 does better
  12. ORH_wxman
    Hoping this band holds together
  13. ORH_wxman
    The sound of crappy snow growth. I feel like every storm in ‘07-08 during those SWFEs sounded like that. Like 9 to 1 baking powder falling from the sky. It’s great for building pack though since it’s kind of dense even though it’s dry/powdery.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I think some people got sucked into the idea of a marginal threat prior to 1/3 or so….that’s prob where some of the whining is coming from. The ensembles look gangbusters still beyond that so don’t see anything that screams red flags for January.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Def fighting dry air in SNE but some decent bands N of pike at the moment
  16. ORH_wxman
    Woodstove has eaten a lot of wood over the past couple days. When it’s colder out, you really gotta keep that internal stove temp up and when it’s that hot inside the stove, the wood almost vaporizes as you put it in, lol.
  17. ORH_wxman
    2nd week of January is quite the cold signal on the weeklies today…keep in mind this is a 5-day mean
  18. ORH_wxman
    Could be a random storm signal, agreed. But it’s strange how different it is. Pretty good agreement on MJO going into phase 8 after new years so I think you would no longer have destructive interference so the pattern reverting back to something favorable would make sense.
  19. ORH_wxman
    GEFS vs EPS for January 3rd
  20. ORH_wxman
    Western trough has been underestimated many times in the last few years. So far this year though it’s been fairly tame so we’ll see. 12z OP Euro still not buying it. Has a huge ridge out there in early January. We’ll see what ensembles say.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Almost a 2F step change in July after what looks like a very slow drift down before that (which may or may not just be an artifact of local mesonets coming online…but usually a prolonged drift is not from new mesonets.)
  22. ORH_wxman
    There’s a bit of a model battle. GEFS have diverged decently for the first week of January (really the first 4-5 days) It’s hitting the deeper troughing out west which will keep us much milder and prob at least one cutter. Maybe a couple. EPS not buying that idea. Keeps the warmer look to mostly pre-New Years.
  23. ORH_wxman
    How long has it been that bad? Even the very very lenient “within 2F” margin they use on calibration would fail miserably. Cant imagine why it hasn’t been axed and replaced yet.
  24. ORH_wxman
    That was a good storm with a solid 6-10” front ender…really nasty cold tuck with ice all the way into BOS and SE MA the next morning. Eventually we all warm sectored though in SNE except maybe the deep valleys near Hippy/Your old neck of the woods and N ORH county.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Sunset looked nice tonight behind the ridge line with the snow and lights. Grabbed this pic around 4:30.
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