ORH_wxman

CCB has looked pretty flaccid since the 06z euro came out. I guess hrrr was decent but that is clown range for that model.

12z NAM trying for isothermal paste bomb for several hours on the WAA thump well down into CT. That’s gonna be interesting to watch. The soundings are legit isothermal right near 0C.

Scorpion bowls on Winter Hill….

Yeah I’m not expecting much on the thump here so I’m staying fairly conservative. If guidance becomes more unanimous for a good thump then I’ll be more bullish on 6”+ here.

Front end thump will have a say in accums…if we can pound S/S+ for 3-4 hours late tomorrow before the CCB organizes, then we’d be much more likely to achieve 6-10 in the 495 belt. If it fizzles like the Euro shows and we just have to wait for CCB, then I’d go more like 3-6 here.

Boston had 16” of rain and 6.6” of snow at this point in ‘57-58 (similar type ENSO too). I think ‘78-79 was very wet too but not a ton of snow…what was terrible about that winter is it was cold too but the storms didn’t cooperate.

Yeah that’s prob pretty accurate. I have about 17.5” but I have at little bit of elevation and a little bit west of there being near the Hopkinton and Ashland lines.

Prob about 58-62” depending on local elevation. Saying “around 60 inches” won’t be too far off for any of these towns…might be closer to 65” once you get above 500 feet in Hopkinton There aren’t a lot of good coops around here unfortunately. The Milford one used to keep decent data but not pristine…I think they averaged like 57 which is close to my numbers and makes sense being a little lower given non-pristine data.

Yeah that seems decent. I think even on bad solutions you’ll limp to 2-3” of crapola but you have some upside if you can stay cold enough aloft. Your area is pretty tough. If I was forecasting still for Union I’d be telling the dude “yeah you are probably gonna need plows but it could be 2-3” or 8-9”….stay tuned”

yeah the screw zone crown is officially shifting from Ray down into S CT now. Esp with Ray’s area cleaning up relatively speaking this year (and that looks to continue in this storm) Maybe Scooter coming at runner-up for screwjie but his struggles are more recent since they had 1/29/22. S CT has really been garbage since Feb 2021.

ORH to AFN corridor is safest for warning snow along with Berkshires. Prob a little north too but you gotta worry about QPF diminishing once you start getting further up into monads and past Mitch’s area in S VT…though they could make up for it with good ratios…esp higher terrain. Next area is Ray down to 495 in east-central MA corridor. As long as precip rates don’t crap out, this area should do fairly well too. But not as safe as higher terrain just west. Then next area is like Kevin over to N RI to 128 belt up to sea coast Nh. Different reasons for uncertainty in those areas (Kevin it’s midlevel temps and 128 to seacoast it’s BL)

Also some of the cross-hair sigs are good in those bands. You could be rocking 15 to 1 ratios at 31-32F in that to make up for 7 to 1 ratios at beginning.

GFS is still performs worse than dial-up internet era Euro in coastals.

Positive snow depth change maps are gonna be awful over interior with any elevation. It gets reasonably cold at 925. Like-2 to -3.

Yeah if that doesn’t block off and rolls over our heads instead, it could be 60F. But I think it’s becoming more likely the block happens given the ensemble support which was more tepid on previous runs. But like you, not ready to 100% buy in yet.

Tries for the Kraft in eastern MA. It’s a little stretched out but that was close to something a lot nicer.

Some people were complaining about the smaller events getting less frequent. They should be happy about the nickel and dimes. I dunno, if we keep seeing the trend of the vort/H5 flow “curling” as it goes under us, then that increases the upside for sure. I wouldn’t predict a foot now, but it’s def a possibility for someone over the interior with elevation.

3pm Monday: “I got a foot…wasn’t expecting that”

You may be in a great spot on that pattern depicted. Your extra longitude east will help.

EPS does get a close h5 low over Hazey in Nova Scotia on the mean…there must be some decent members further west because it has 1-2” of snow for eastern New England during that D8 period.

The ORH to Ray corridor may be AN for snow by Monday morning. Esp closer to you…ORH would need about 8-9” from the storm to be AN by that date which is doable but far from a lock.

EPS is pretty damned amped for a 180h mean…look at the angle of that delivery between us and Baffin Island Big storm is unlikely but the omega block pattern is rapidly gaining more support.

Darn I was expecting the GEFS to have a mean of 20” for that storm.

Wonder if Ray is gonna get payback this winter while a bunch of others get taken to the Scooter Woodshed Torture Games. That euro solution is almost a nuke for NE Ma and SE NH.

Lol euro almost pulls it off. It does give accumulating snow from it. Just no 30 and 40 burgers like the insane GFS.