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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah I think we want to see some snow reports by 8-9am in N CT to be optimistic about at least advisory snows. I was looping the meso guidance and pound time really needs to happen there between 9am-1pm…so if you’re still struggling to snow once into that time range, it’s prob not happening for accumulations.
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We’ll see if Kevin can flip in the next 1-2 hours. If not, that basically means nada for most of CT east of Litchfield county at least. Dual pol does look like snow north of Ginxy in N RI and extreme NE CT but hard to say if any of that is reaching the ground as snow or just melts prior to reaching sfc.
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I’m not that optimistic on the front end thump. Feel like best shot at accums is the CCB stuff even if it’s not heavy…it will at least have a colder column. Easier to accumulate at 32-33 when 925 is like -2 or -3 than isothermal. But it’s admittedly a real tough call because heavy rates will trump a lot of issues. The problem is you can’t guarantee heavy rates. Can we get 0.2” per hour QPF? Maybe. But there’s a huge difference between that and like 0.08-0.12 per hour.
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
ORH_wxman replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
You’re not gonna snow with a ULL going from Detroit to Pittsburgh then looping east and the back NW toward BUF. That’s an ugly upper air look. But that’s exotically far west compared to everything including the ensembles that just came out. -
Meh. Not impressed. Euro hasn’t had a good CCB in several runs now. Synoptically with the way the lows track, you’d think someone would do well between CNE and the pike for a while before the whole thing collapses SE but it’s just showing light precip in that zone. The conveyor circulations just never get linked up on this storm very well and I think it’s causing a lot of headaches on these solutions. I don’t know how real it is, but it’s a red flag for sure.
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There’s usually good snow growth in the CCB stuff too because you are saturated well into the column whereas the WAA stuff can dryslot pretty quickly above 600-700mb. So I could see a lot of premature bust calls and then by Monday evening some areas will be thinking “oh I got another 3” today so it salvaged the storm to respectable”
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I do think some of the CCB stuff could be undermodeled…esp Monday morning. Typically, models biases (and I believe this is still generally true even now in my experience) tend to overdo the WAA stuff and underdo the CCB stuff. But we’ll see. This is a weird system with all sorts of issues and there’s prob going to be a lot of nowcasting.
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
ORH_wxman replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Omega trying to spike footballs if we get a pattern he explicitly said wasn’t going to happen would be the meme….