ORH_wxman
-
Posts
90,902 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by ORH_wxman
-
1979-80 analog again
-
Map you saw above from TheMainer was only the snow after 12z Sunday. So it didn’t include all the snow that fell late Saturday and overnight prior to 12z Sunday. Euro has been pretty consistent with 3-4” in CT and 5-6” pike region.
-
Pretty solid for a week out
-
Looks more like the Euro suite
-
Def a bit colder than 18z. Easily a net-gainer for a large part of SNE. I’d prob take and run. But I’m hopeful we get a little easing SE as guidance feels the sludge to the north…but maybe they already have it correct, not sure. But one can hope for the messenger shuffles as we close in.
-
GFS looks a touch less amped than 18z too through 54h
-
Yeah and take a look at how much further north the lower pressure isobars poke into NY state than the 18z run. Btw, despite the early trends at 00z (admittedly mixed with rgem not going north)….I kind of agree with you that this system is pretty ripe for the primary to correct SE a bit on some of these runs as we close inside 48h. We have a pretty sludgy/molasses airmass to the north…true arctic stuff. Gonna be tough to really drill the primary up there.
-
Look at those thicknesses and ptype… Don’t worry about 10 mile shifts in sfc low. Look at the rest of the setup.
-
Reggie, on the other hand, is less amped than 18z.
-
Looks more amped to me.
-
They will once there’s a low 200 miles to our southeast and we need it stronger and west.
-
This is the timeframe when the mesos all get obscenely amped…the question is whether they are correct or not. Sometimes they are first to catch on but other times they are just doing typical meso zonked things.
-
-
18z euro healthy front end. 4” S CT to 6” in pike/Rt 2 region.
-
Except 2008, lol. I think I was at about 30-31F for 90% of that event. But we had very good dewpoint advection in that one. Like 15-20 knot northeast sustained. It was also a QPF bomb with like 3” of liquid.
-
-
There’s def potential for good ice but I’d like to see QPF after the snow thump be a little stronger OR the CAD hold really tough at the sfc due to earlier mesolow. The euro had like 0.75-1.00 of QPF over about 18 hours there after you flip from snow to sleet…and if a lot of that can fall as ZR and accrete efficiently (either light fall rates or sfc temps in the upper 20s), then it gets a lot more interesting for something in the 3/8ths range.
-
Yeah it tried for 50s here I think at one point, lol. Most runs were more tame. But it can get a little happy with the erosion of CAD sometimes.
-
I'm not sure there is enough QPF that falls as straight ZR to make this a larger impact icing event. There will def be some icing, but it seems like mostly less than 3 tenths to me. I guess if we develop the secondary a little sooner, then maybe there's a narrow zone for more ala the Icon model. Developing the secondary sooner will also help sleet go further south too for longer before the flip....so it's hard to get high end icing.
-
GFS is still wedging very strongly. It's def a bit more zonked with primary but that confluence to the northeast is strong, so once again places like ORH never crack freezing. Front end snow was a little better than 12z too....the 12z run was pretty flaccid....moreso than the other guidance.
-
GFS looking pretty zonked through 54h. Decided not to follow the 12z Euro trend.
-
For the real cold stuff to drain down, you'd want a much stronger mesolow earlier....I don't that that's going to happen, but even as is, the NAM doesn't get you above 35F until briefly spiking 40F during FROPA.
-
High here was 36.4F but it's been rotting around 35-35.5 the last 2 hours....we def got a little drop after that mesolow went by....didn't do much, but it prevented further rises. Amazingly, this might end up a net-gainer from 1.5" of dense junk....at the very least, we won't lose any of the prior pack.
-
The smells like a classic Brett/@TauntonBlizzard2013storm where he cancels it 3 different times over the next week and then he puts up a 20-burger in a deformation band that annihilates SE MA.
-
Pretty good front enders on the JV models too....generally 4-6" for the pike region which is matching the Euro and EPS. It actually snows for quite some time....just not all that heavily. About 10-12 hours of WAA snows.
