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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Thought eps would be more zonked. I’d feel really good from Ray to N CT right now. But both MHT region and S CT are still in line for at least plowable…we’ll see.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Ukie still a meat grinder job. But it was def less of a meat grinder than 00z run. 00z was a clean whiff and 12z is a scraper.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Yes it was the same system. It just had a couple vort pulses but it was all part of the same ULL
  4. ORH_wxman
    That’s a big jump on the last frame…esp looking at the isobars in the gulf of maine
  5. ORH_wxman
    In your hood? Prob Dec 2019…I can’t remember if you got a bit skunked in the Feb 1-2, 2021 storm…and I know you were way too far west for Jan 2022
  6. ORH_wxman
    16th has clipper/little critter potential that @Typhoon Tip and I have been referring to the last day or so. Pretty vigorous northern stream s/w…if we can track that in the vicinity of LI then look out for a solid stripe of snow over SNE/CNE.
  7. ORH_wxman
    2013 might be #2 all time in CT behind 1888. What a ridiculous coverage of 25”+.
  8. ORH_wxman
    I think there’s still a lot more uncertainty in this system than many of us (including myself) are giving it credit for. That’s a huge gap between models inside of 100 hours. My gut still says this will not be south but you can’t completely ignore the southern solutions. I’d say you can probably toss the total whiffs but you may need to entertain the possibility we get something a bit more sheared ala the 12z NAM.
  9. ORH_wxman
    GGEM still a sheared mess. Whiff.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Definitely gotta keep that in the back of our minds. I don’t think it has room to fully phase but a little more partial phase wouldn’t be out of the question.
  11. ORH_wxman
    To be more specific, there are two famous Presidents’ Day storms…that’s why people see “PDI and PDII”….the first one was 1979 and crushed DC to NYC but whiffed New England. The second one was 2003 and gave 20”+ from DC to Boston and most SNE. Even CNE got decent snows but not quite as much.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Pretty zonked actually.
  13. ORH_wxman
    RGEM looks a lot healthier with the shortwave than the NAM
  14. ORH_wxman
    Yep that reminds me of the Ukie and GGEM last night. It’s further north than those two models but the idea of shearing the southern stream vort is similar. That’s definitely what we DONT want to see because then you end up with crappy rates and lower ceiling for the event.
  15. ORH_wxman
    06z eps
  16. ORH_wxman
    I’m addition to the strong 2/24 signal, we’re starting to see a cluster of lows show up near the BM and further southwest (timing variance) on the individual ensemble plot for 2/19ish. Pretty good to start seeing some clusters at D10
  17. ORH_wxman
    06z euro at 90h looks a little more amped than 00z at 96h fwiw. Maybe seeing some stabilizing of the S trend…we’ll know a lot more at 12z. We’ll be getting into that sub-100 hour range now on the 12z guidance which is when confidence starts ramping up faster.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Nice to see 06z runs look a little better.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Right but it’s a plausible solution if we see the PV up in Canada continue to press down against the SE ridge. There’s going to be no space for that southern shortwave to keep its strength…it will get ground to a pulp at some point if that trend doesn’t cease. Hopefully this is the extent of it.
  20. ORH_wxman
    The confluence is starting to create a problem since we also have a SE ridge. Really hope this thing doesn’t trend into a meat grinder POS like the Ukie/GGEM. Hopefully euro comes in solid and then I’ll have more confidence the Ukie/GGEM are out to lunch.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Ukie is a clean whiff. No QPF north of nyc.
  22. ORH_wxman
    The confluence up north is def real…the question is whether the southern stream shortwave gets sheared out by “almost phasing” with the northern stream like the GGEM shows. Most other guidance doesn’t show that but the GGEM has been doing that quite a lot on the past few runs.
  23. ORH_wxman
    GGEM still keeping it sheared and ugly. But that seems to be an outlier right now. The rest of guidance is keeping the southern stream separate and potent.
  24. ORH_wxman
    And that is expected with the trend in increased confluence. You’re going to have a really good fronto band somewhere when you have a vigorous southern stream s/w slamming up into that brick wall to the north. But whoever ends up north of that band will be choking on arctic sand exhaust.
  25. ORH_wxman
    That fringed him. He had like 8” compared to the 12-18 zone near and just S of pike down into CT/RI
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