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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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I think the place is want recon for this storm is up in the Great Lakes because that will tell us if the northern stream is trying to get enough subtle interaction to crush us….that’s where the differences have been. @Typhoon Tip mentioned this earlier as well and I agree it’s the northern stream being the key player. Not saying the southern downstream ridging isn’t important, but the northern stream evolution is what gives the room for the downstream ridging to amplify.
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If we get big rainfall totals into those 5-6 border counties in SE OH, then it’s game on for the pike-south crew…and even Rt 2 is looking better in that scenario. If the heavy rain mostly stays SE of those counties, then my area is in trouble and perhaps even N CT. We don’t just want to see the radar echoes get there, we want to see like a solid 0.50”+ of QPF
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If you want to follow something definitive upstream that will tell us whether the latest southern guidance is more correct, look at the radar along the Ohio River in SE Ohio tonight between 8pm-midnight....almost all of the guidance that crushes SNE gets good precip just over the Ohio river into the border counties of SE Ohio....the crappy runs keep it in West Virginia and basically completely whiff those Ohio counties. It ends up making a big difference downstream later on for us as the difference gets magnified....
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Euro uses more up-to-date data than the earlier 12z runs....part of its data assimilation process is that it can use ground truth to "Check" some of the 2z ingest. I'm not a total expert on the data assimilation for NWP guidance, but I do remember reading that was an advantage the Euro had several years ago.
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I don't think it will be all that interesting...it's going to go way south because the 18z RAP/HRRR already did that....the 18z cycles clearly have data ingested that say this is going to be way south. The more interesting part of me is going to be if we see the mesos try and tick back N on the post-18z runs.