ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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We were in a little mini-sucker hole you can see on the loop but it has filled in and we're picking up now
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Looks like about 3" of mashed potatoes....we haven't had the rates that CT has had though, so it is going to need to pick up if we're gonna salvage warning criteria.
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Cape might get crushed later this afternoon. The meat of that CCB gets them and they could see over an inch of QPF easily from here on out.
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Ripping now. 32F and maybe just shy of 2" down. Should be able to stack pretty efficiently now if these rates and growth keep up.
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No it had like 15”+ up by Ray for a couple runs prior lol
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Looks like there is a mini-CF along 128. Lots of 36s and 37s just east and 32s/33s west.
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I think you’re gonna beat 3”…I’m starting to get into heavy snow now with that band just about here and the stuff to the west looks pretty healthy it’s going to collapses ESE at some point but that shouldn’t happen until closer to midday
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If you had to pick a “winner”, the RGEM is a good candidate. In an absolute sense it still struggled but it had the smallest swings compared to other models and I don’t think it showed a whiff inside of 48 hours like the Ukie did multiple times.
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Interior SE MA for sure will clean up…it’s gonna be close where I am right on the pike (technically a few miles south)…radar def looking better with each passing frame. If I crack 6” I can’t be too disappointed after yesterday, but I won’t lie that it will be a little annoying if I get like 7” and someone not too far SE gets over a foot.
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What an eye-gouge
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Def started off mild here in the 34-35F range at the onset but temp has finally dipped to 32 on the nose.
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Bands picking up strength along the pike S of ORH and back to CEF area…let’s keep that cranking for the next few hours
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There isn’t a single model that did a good job in this system.
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About an inch down so far. Good snow growth and picking up a bit now.
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Gonna be close here whether we get big rates or not. Ita snowing good right now but would like to see another nudge north on the echoes…they are trying
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Certainly S of pike looks like they may be in business. Not sure about right near the pike around here yet
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Nice band for CT right now
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The pope predicted this to be a rainstorm.
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He was forecasting no confluence 2 days ago.
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I don’t think it’s going to end up well here. 00z hrrr trended worse for the second straight run after improving between 18z and 22z. Just about ready to throw in the towel here on anything over 6”. CT/RI/SE MA still look ok but these flatter runs are robbing dynamics too so even the places that still get hit aren’t get hit quite as hard as when we see the more dynamic/north solutions.
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There were no smoking guns…some could say Ukie but we’ve seen it be an outlier a bunch of times before and just get embarrassed. Pretty hard to go against a strong non-Ukie model consensus less than 48h before an event. That’s really short lead time these days. It’s not like it was 72-84 hours out
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Needs to gain a little more latitude. I’m not loving the look at the moment. We need to see those heavier echoes in N KY break through a little more…right now the northern extent of them is pretty static…they’re trying to push N a little further east near S OH…next 2 hours we’ll know
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23z HRRR and RAP both regressed back south a small tick. We await 00z
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Don’t do ptype…those maps take forever (and I agree it’s annoying that they do). Do 3-hr QPF or total QPF or other maps like the 500 vort maps.
