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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Euro is still west of most guidance...but it definitely ticked east a bit overall.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Total crush job...gets captured south of MVY/ACK....that is about the sweet spot for much of SNE.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Euro is definitely making a wider turn at 30 hours.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Euro won't really start going for another 5-6 minutes.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Yeah, everyone always remembers the high amounts. I once forecasted 6-12" for a storm for a client back in the Vday 2007 storm. They got 6.5-7" with plenty of sleet (which was also forecasted) and then asked me why the forecast busted saying "I thought we were getting a foot"...I wanted to rip my eyes out. I usualy prefer a smaller range, but that storm was difficult to forecast with the sleet.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yeah someone will get 30" in this probably...but I wouldn't be forecasting that anywhere. I would feel much better just broadbrushing 18-24 with perhaps a few stratigic spots for 24"+ like Harvey did...though even that is not easy. Prob south shore where they will get enhancement for a time off the ocean and snow is last to shut off Tues night or early Wed morning...maybe north shore too.
  7. ORH_wxman
    The Cape is definitely going to see some ridiculous conditions. The paste they get for a good chunk of the storm combined with the wind is gonna cause some power issues down there probably....even though their trees are pretty hardy.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Ukie was fine for most...a little worrisome for western folks, but you know the deal with the western fringe of the heavy QPF in these types of systems
  9. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I like something in the 16-24/18-24 range with jackpots higher in the localized banding. I think this one actually has just a bit less juice to it than Feb 2013 so I would expect the coverage of 24"+ to be less than that storm. But it's still going to be pretty high end. Feb 2013 had a greater gulf connection with the southern stream vortmax
  10. ORH_wxman
    Ahh, I guess they didn't put the new vid up yet
  11. ORH_wxman
    Here's Harveys map
  12. ORH_wxman
    Even out towards messenger and south shore spots PYM to GHG could get a pine punisher for the first 10-14" of this storm until things crash SE on Tuesday morning.
  13. ORH_wxman
    There could be a sneaky paste disaster on the Cape in this one.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Seeing Harvey on a Sunday is awesome
  15. ORH_wxman
    Yes it stalls SE of ACK...it's what makes E MA catch up to perhaps an early lead for central or western areas that get deformation snows.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Yeah central CT will get smoked...I'd mostly be a little nervous about going too high in far NW CT to Berkshires...esp west side of Berks...east slope prob still in monster territory
  17. ORH_wxman
    I noticed NARR updated from this past winter....this is probably the best visual of the firehose from March 7-8 That's like 800 miles long.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Stumbled upon this last night...what a great 1-2 punch that was: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/182826-sne-discussion-thread-for-122108-winter-storm/page__st__1480
  19. ORH_wxman
    Its almost impossible to reconcile hail with the thermal profiles the way they were. Especially since we had seeder-feeder from above...but the OKX sounding from 00z Feb 9th does temps approaching near 0C at around 900mb (the sounding craps out above that)...the lift must have been so powerful (like straight strong convection) to lift the supercooled droplets in the low levels to form low-level RA/ZR that then got lifted into colder sounding above.
  20. ORH_wxman
    That sounds like a real doozy.
  21. ORH_wxman
    The Nenana Ice Classic is aiming for the latest melt out on record (97 years worth). I doubt it can last to beat the 1964 date of May 20th, but 2nd place is attainable if the tripod stands another 24 hours: http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/ Been an amazing spring (or lack of) up there.
  22. ORH_wxman
    This one definitely had a lot of similarities to Feb '83...I remember thinking that too when the progs were about 72h out. Up here, it under performed compared to '83 due to more advection of dry air from the north...but definitely not down in that region.
  23. ORH_wxman
    1. NAO blocking...where will it set up? Ensembles have been pushing the blocking further west, especially starting with yesterday's runs. But its been generally on the all of the ensembles (both Euro/GEFS) for about a week now. The only difference is it was more pronounced yesterday and it seems to finally be getting closer...at least the big east based block is now inside of 10 days. There is still plenty of reason to be skeptical of the west based blocking idea. HM has brought up the stratospheric state in the North Atlantic going forward in the near-term which would try to inhibit blocking from retrograding westward into the Davis straight region. 2. Aleutian ridge reconfiguration...temporary GOA ridge retrogrades west. This is something that is also becoming a bit more clear with guidance. The temporary GOA ridge (which originally was going to be more of a +PNA, but never got far enough east) that builds for the lakes cutter next week looks to retrograde back and then feed into the Aleutian ridge building poleward again...it temporarily has been beaten down a bit which is contributing to our recent torching in the CONUS. A more poleward Aleutian ridge is going to be key for sustaining arctic intrusion into the CONUS beyond the initial shot behind the Lakes cutter. As the GOA ridge is undergoing this rebuilding, we seem to have another window for a torch in the Dec 13-15 range. 3. Snow. A poleward Aleutian ridge and a -NAO (even if east based) has historically been a very snowy pattern for New England in December. Its not a guarantee but it increases the odds quite a bit. There is a chance we don't cash in because it is impossible to predict the nuances of any given shortwave or synoptic feature, but I think you can at least count on some legit chances as we move into the week of Dec 17-24. The pattern will look a lot different 10 days from now...of course whether we actually get snow events from it or not will decide whether weenies scream boom or bust. Here's a look at the GEFS prog for Dec 17-18...the EC ensembles are not quite as enthusiastic about the NAO, but definitely still have it and the overall longwave pattern is similar.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Well its not like you missed it in NJ.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Those are pretty impressive pictures from PDII, you must have had at least 24" where you were looking at the reference points and where drifts might be.
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