ORH_wxman

Yeah that area near PYM-Bridgewater-GHG triangle could be a sneaky monster total...everyone is focusing on the deform band, but that area is gonna get firehosed and get CF enhancement too.

I'd feel pretty good on the south shore right now...they will avoid any screwzones I think.

GFS is my least favorite model in coastal systems....but the RGEM being east would be giving me a lot of pause if I forecasting in the ALB CWA.

It's the model center that is hurting the most. The board can handle probably 4000 or 5000 users on if they are just browsing. The system was just rebooted, so hopefully we'll be fine from here on out...though I wouldn't be surprised if all the crazy refreshes in the model center when the Euro comes out slows it down for a time.

Eastern areas avoid the 500-600mb dryslot on the RGEM...NAM dryslots back to like the CT River...even to ORH at 700mb, nevermind like 500-600mb.

Pretty big difference between NAM and RGEM...RGEM is east for sure

Nam looked a little west of the euro but were talking like 20 miles. It's within the model error.

They have huge ratios sometimes. They seem inflated.

Well it was on guidance the middle d last week though not to the extent that we see now. Then it disappeared for a few runs and we thought that was it but then the models started catching onto that 2nd shortwave catching up to the first and phasing. Carl Lewis chasing the fat kid. But yeah it is fairly rare to see such a bust inside 100 hours on a storm of this magnitude.

Yeah jackpot fetishes are in full swing this morning. It's going to be a huge storm even outside the banding jackpots. 3 days ago this was a whiff. Helps keep things in perspective.

Yeah it's not perfect by any means. You obviously don't want to take it by itself...but combined with some other guidance it can be useful.

MOS has a ""memory"...it will try and match similar setups from the past. That's where it can be more useful than actual raw guidance sometimes. One reason the FWC guidance was pretty good...much better than NGM model itself.

Yeah I don't think this will beat Feb 2013 for the widespread 24"+ totals. This feels a bit more like January 2011...maybe slightly better.

He's on the eastern side of it on that map...probably in between where the first "T" and "E" is on "Massachusetts"

OES should start breaking out in the next few hours. You can alsready sort of it starting on radar, but probably not reaching the ground yet.

Jerry's elephant is nowhere to be found in this one...some pretty real cold:

Yeah I'd feel good for a huge hit from central LI eastward, but that NYC region is a tough call. I wonder if we see the other guidance tick west tomorrow morning toward the Euro but also a small tick east by the Euro? That 70/30 compromise that often happens when the Euro is an outlier. The Euro outlier this close in has me believing that it is mostly correct...it's a damned good model and rarely screws up this close in. That said, "mostly right" still means a level of correction could happen...25 miles is a big deal down there right now.

I still think it will be hard to get that wide of a 24"+ area depicted on the Euro...but we will see how things look in the morning. It does stall in a great spot.

Yeah most of SNE is gonna get crushed one way or the other...as messenger said, the fringes are where these small wobbles matter the most. Euro mixes the Cape (at least central and outer cape) while most of the other 00z guidance does not....and of course NYC gets 20"+ on the Euro while other guidance gives them close to 10". For most of SNE, we are not talking much except for model noise.

Yeah it will prob be mostly 12-14 to 1 type stuff over most of the region where the snow stays powdery.

Yeah just E of NYC...LI up into HVN/BDR looks the best to me on the Euro based on where it rotted that band, It;s got another jack in SE MA where the snow lasts until Wed morning.

All of SNE is over 1.5" on the Euro with 2" for a lot of CT/SE MA and RI. BOS about 2" of qpf.

Yeah i would not be surprised if the Euro ticked east again tomorrow. It's probably mostly right, but usually you'll see a little bit of compromise even when it's doing well.

I think it is a bit west of the RGEM but not too far off

Not really, it's still a really good run for NYC...just not quite as good as 12z but that was kind of an obscene run for them.