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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Got a long ways to go before anything becomes too exciting....it's going to come down to weather if you are looking for a record minimum. It's gonna take a massive warm dipole to probably get there given the distribution of ice thickness this winter. Gonna want something that looks kind of like the 2007 pattern....you can see how the thicker ice is all in the Laptev and East Siberian seas.
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March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
This was the radar when Ray cleared....he cleared at the 5pm mark, and this is probably about 3-4 inches per hour type snow over him at the time so it was definitely a perfect time to clear to optimize high totals.... -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
Hey for all the flak PeteB takes by some on here...he knows his snowfall measuring -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
Why does he think the melted core is accurate? That isn't credible. -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
Or he cut a biscuit into existing snowpack from that paste bomb last week....that might do it. -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
I mean, he prob didn't do it on purpose....but it's clearly an error. Maybe he cut a biscuit where a snow avalanche off the roof happened so he was slicing through packed snow or something. There is a zero percent chance he had like 7 to 1 ratios up there. -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
The 3+ qpf report is about 100x more egregious than a snowfall report that was about 6 inches higher. That 3+ qpf is so blatantly not credible. -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
Airports have 6 hour measurements going back to the 1940s even...though not all of them did. The 6 hour clearing method will probably be more accurate in the long run than a coop who only sticks a ruler in the ground at 7am every morning. You lose way too much snow in the latter. Most NWS people I have talked to don't enforce the changes because they are pretty subjective and sometimes impractical. Besides, there is the subjective element of "when instructed"...and the NWS people can just say they instruct them to continue measuring with 6 hour increments. What is the point now of having a homogeneous record broken if someone has been measuring snow for a decade using the clearing method? Only in storms that have a big fluff band will the differences be really obvious anyway. -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
Snow pack is extra impressive looking because we still had all that low ratio cement from the previous storm last week before yesterday happened....so while 2 feet of snow looks impressive no matter what, the piles and everything are starting to give me flashbacks to 2015. -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
You would think so....but the 2nd half of March can shut down quickly sometimes even when things look pretty good for more threats like they do now. Climo would get them there, that's for sure. -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
Anything under 15 to 1 up in that area that was also measured last night isn't credible IMHO. That band was blower powder. You need to be either outside the band with crappier snow growth or right on the beach where the snow stayed pretty wet to have ratios under 15 to 1. I can buy it maybe if you didn't measure until morning. Given the nature of the snow in that band...if you were swiping every 6 hours, your total is def going to contrast more with the "yardstick in the ground at the end" method more than normal. In a typical dry cement windblown blizzard, the difference might only be 3 inches. It could very well be double that in a storm like yesterday if you were being very diligent. -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
I'll add to the list for ORH.... 21.8" yesterday was a daily record, but it also put the monthly total at 40.0".....this is the 2nd snowiest March on record for ORH only behind March 1993 which saw 44.1". -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
Yeah every once in awhile Norfolk will get like a 6 inch blitz on upslope and you're like "WTF did that come from?" while its partly sunny 10-15 miles east. -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
Towns that have their own local power company seem to fair way better than the larger companies in avoiding outages or getting power back much faster when they do occur. -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
The type of snow in that death band was blower...like LES almost. 20 to 1 or 25 to 1 stuff. So the swipers and the "yardstick in the ground at the end" measurements are going to have more disparity than usual. If the snow had much crappier ratios, then the differences would be pretty minor. -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
I know Sam mentioned the squalls tomorrow afternoon, but don't sleep on a bit of snow too in the evening/night as well tomorrow night with the deepening of the ULL just as it passes our longitude, almost wants to throw an IVT back, so there could be some currier and ives stuff that blossoms. Doubt it will be a big deal, but if someone gets an inch or so it wouldn't be shocking. -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
You can update measurements however frequently you'd like, but you can't wipe the board clean more than once every 6 hours. When you wipe the board, you must take note of the depth on the board before you clean it. -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
Yeah that was the winter....2009-2010. It still gives a lot of people PTSD about a -NAO despite what happened the next winter with a strong -NAO....then 2013 and now this March. Ill say to wiz, confluence isn't a bad thing. It's only bad when it's so strong we get whiffed. But confluence helps with frontogenesis so you can wring out extra precip too...and on would-be rainers, it can force them underneath us for snow instead. -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
Yeah it was all about the midlevels. Same theme (different setup though) in march 2013 with the surface low way east but the midlevels were throwing forcing wayyy west into SNE. -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
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March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
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March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
Yes...you can see it happening out by ORH now...but that is good for eastern folks to try and kep the party going into after hours -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
There's even good bands regenerating over ORH county right now...that ML forcing dies hard. It's still taking its time leaving as much mentioned above. -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
It'll get you...there's really good F-GEN at 700-500 over E MA right now. That means the forcing is still strong so the bands should continue to generate as they slowly crawl eastward. -
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
ORH_wxman replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
Time for BOS to cash in now...looks like its finally getting there. That 128-495 zone just continues to get nuked