ORH_wxman

Def wasn't screwing around with the little meso-vorticity maxima like some of the mesos were....treats it as a normal shortwave.

Wow...GFS not backing down at all.

I think he's talking about the wrong storm...prob March 4th

Pretty amazing how where I am had two big busts in the negative direction in March 2018 and I still ended up with over 40 inches for the month. The March 2nd storm was a big bust....we were supposed to flip to snow and get 5-8/6-10 but instead it took until about 7-8pm to flip and we only got about 1.5 inches. That storm and Mar 21 were awful....but those other two monsters made up for it, lol....but it could have been a legit 60 inch month if those other two didn't fail. Anyways, bit OT there. Despite some of the uglier looking meso runs at 00z, I'm still pretty optimistic on this system. I think there's more mechanisms to move this a bit NW versus east.

Yeah it's still a good storm, but it's not the 18z run...the warning criteria area def is smaller this time....it's not as paltry as the NAM at all though. For the QPF queens.....

I don't think it will end up well east like earlier runs....but I could see the 18z nuke idea being overdone. But I don't really see this becoming a 1-3" scraper for SE MA like we saw yesterday. I think we've locked in the idea of a further west shortwave climbing the east side of the longwave trough....but the consolidated nuke idea is still in doubt.

RGEM is a mess too...18z had a nuking consolidated low....this is like 12-14mb weaker and not consolidated. It's still a pretty good snowstorm, but not like 18z. Clearly, the mesos are not feeling the consolidated idea on the 00z run. It will be interesting to see what the global models do.

From a synoptic pattern perspective, the bigger solution does look pretty reasonable...we've got a negatively tilted shortwave loaded with gulf moisture. There's not a lot that wants to shove it east on a scenario like that. Seems you either string it out with convection or somehow get a weaker system overall because the shortwave trends weaker...but we aren't seeing the latter.

Yeah...18z could've been an over-trend.

Negative...it's pretty darn cold at 900mb so the snow is going to be pretty dry....interior will prob be that classic 27F snow. Coastline could be a little closer to freezing...so those areas, esp SE MA may have to watch for paste.

NAM definitely looks very "convective-ish" this run....several blobs of it as the low is trying to organize more. The low seems to string out and chase one of those blobs that is near the BM at 30 hours and then just chases it northeast preventing this thing from becoming nice and consolidated like other model guidance.

I'm shamelessly tossing it.

It's not as organized as the Euro...it's NW of the 18z run, but the 18z run was actually a better looking storm.

I think some of it depends on how much of that lakes shortwave late in the game tries to phase in...doesn't really affect the storm itself too much at SNE's latitude but a stronger interaction does lower the heights behind that Saturday storm...we saw it on the 18z GFS. The 18z euro didn't really do it enough. But I could see it doing that on future runs if it amps up on Saturday a little further.

No. But pretty close to OP. Just looking at crude sfc and thickness chart.

Not that it's a surprise but 18z EPS are honking too. They came NW.

That euro solution is pretty intense...awesome midlevels closing off and that would probably produce some awesome banding...so in a solution like that you don't want to get too obsessed with the QPF...could be some big totals on the northwest side of the tightest gradient.

Wow huge hit. Esp for E areas.

Wow. Euro is moving significantly NW of 12z through 42 hours. Snowing heavily into CT and RI by 12z Saturday.

Through 30h, 18z euro has higher heights out ahead of the shortwave than 12z. This is probably gonna be a higher impact than the 12z run.

Tried to slide E at the last second but still very good for SE areas. 6"+ from GHG to UUU with 10-12" around the canal. Gets 3" prob back to ORH and TOL. But that was reallly close to being a lot bigger.

Here comes the 21z rpm now. It's gonna be massive for at least SE MA

Gonna be warning snows for a good chunk of SNE this run.

Yep, 18z GFS looks even more zonked than the already big 12z run.

Looks like the 18z RGEM never ran....so we lose that piece of guidance for this cycle.