ORH_wxman

From a synoptic pattern perspective, the bigger solution does look pretty reasonable...we've got a negatively tilted shortwave loaded with gulf moisture. There's not a lot that wants to shove it east on a scenario like that. Seems you either string it out with convection or somehow get a weaker system overall because the shortwave trends weaker...but we aren't seeing the latter.

Yeah...18z could've been an over-trend.

Negative...it's pretty darn cold at 900mb so the snow is going to be pretty dry....interior will prob be that classic 27F snow. Coastline could be a little closer to freezing...so those areas, esp SE MA may have to watch for paste.

NAM definitely looks very "convective-ish" this run....several blobs of it as the low is trying to organize more. The low seems to string out and chase one of those blobs that is near the BM at 30 hours and then just chases it northeast preventing this thing from becoming nice and consolidated like other model guidance.

I'm shamelessly tossing it.

It's not as organized as the Euro...it's NW of the 18z run, but the 18z run was actually a better looking storm.

I think some of it depends on how much of that lakes shortwave late in the game tries to phase in...doesn't really affect the storm itself too much at SNE's latitude but a stronger interaction does lower the heights behind that Saturday storm...we saw it on the 18z GFS. The 18z euro didn't really do it enough. But I could see it doing that on future runs if it amps up on Saturday a little further.

No. But pretty close to OP. Just looking at crude sfc and thickness chart.

Not that it's a surprise but 18z EPS are honking too. They came NW.

That euro solution is pretty intense...awesome midlevels closing off and that would probably produce some awesome banding...so in a solution like that you don't want to get too obsessed with the QPF...could be some big totals on the northwest side of the tightest gradient.

Wow huge hit. Esp for E areas.

Wow. Euro is moving significantly NW of 12z through 42 hours. Snowing heavily into CT and RI by 12z Saturday.

Through 30h, 18z euro has higher heights out ahead of the shortwave than 12z. This is probably gonna be a higher impact than the 12z run.

Tried to slide E at the last second but still very good for SE areas. 6"+ from GHG to UUU with 10-12" around the canal. Gets 3" prob back to ORH and TOL. But that was reallly close to being a lot bigger.

Here comes the 21z rpm now. It's gonna be massive for at least SE MA

Gonna be warning snows for a good chunk of SNE this run.

Yep, 18z GFS looks even more zonked than the already big 12z run.

Looks like the 18z RGEM never ran....so we lose that piece of guidance for this cycle.

Yeah it was a much better storm....the way it kind of shunted it east after it looked good to the south is kind of weird. I'd feel pretty good if i was down in SE MA or S RI.

NAM actually has a much better storm and increased QPF down in S NJ and just offshore to there....it just gets kicked east at the last second, but I didn't hate that trend at all. I think more of that would get at least into SE areas than shown there. edit: Scooter kind of beat me to it already....saying the same thing for the most part

Saturday will be the 14 year anniversary of the SE MA snowbomb on 3/1/05....the messenger special. I remember that one vividly back on WWBB. SE MA def stole my snow in that one....huge convective blob formed over E LI and the ocean just E of it and was heading toward SE MA....SE MA was expected to have some ptype issues (though still get accumulatins snow despite that) while the max would be 495 area to ORH with 8-12 forecast....instead, that convective blob that looked more like an MCS seemed to rob the system of it's usual midlevel circulation and what happened in SE MA was epic....we weren't sure if it was gonna be snow when it hit them.....but then I remember messenger was posting pics of like 100 foot vis, lol. PYM had like 16 inches of snow in 4-5 hours. It was insane. Back up this way, we limped home with like 5-6"....still a decent system, but it was a bust compared to the 8-12 forecast. Might as well do it again for SE MA on the anniversary this Saturday.

Only place that might get a watch is SE MA....pretty close call there on the 50% chance at warning criteria in next 48 hours by the time we get to the PM shift. Plymouth/Barnstable counties...maybe Bristol and Newport county RI. Prob need another bump to get CT in on that type of confidence and the rest of us in E and C MA.

Yeah ginxy, EPS were pretty jacked looking on the conventional plots. Didn't see qpf but your maps confirms that qpf matches.

Cape has some mid-level issues...850 starts tickling above 0C there at the height....PRob want to be west of the Canal for the jack this run. Though its really close...

Prob advisory snows for SE MA this run (like BOS to PVD and TAN)....not gonna jump right into the water and go big. Classic incremental but significant Euro move. Warning snows close to the canal maybe. Prob gets 2-3" back to 495. A solid move that we wanted to see form Dr. No.