Jump to content

ORH_wxman

Moderator Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    90,892

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    I can't see QPF, but the 06z EPS actually looks better than the OP run. Low looks a little healthier and isobars bulging more west.
  2. ORH_wxman
    WSI. This is 30 hours...you can see how it's kind of sliding southeast a bit and not curling up into the shortwave very well. This prevents a huge solution.
  3. ORH_wxman
    It is still shooting that southeast vortmax ENE as this gains latitude...this run was once again better with downstream ridging but it's having trouble really wrapping/curling that vortmax in toward the shortwave. But if we get another 2 or 3 incremental shifts like that we'll be in business for a big event closer to some of the other guidance. I'm not expecting something like RGEM/hi res RGEM lol.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Definitely a little better than 00z but not by a lot. Small shift...nothing like that crazy 18z solution.
  5. ORH_wxman
    06z euro is coming back some through 24h. Should be better than 00z.
  6. ORH_wxman
    I mean, I don't know if that's the reason. I'm just speculating so keep that in mind...I'm just not sure how there's not at least a 50% chance of 6+ in SE MA/RI at this point. I get that they didn't see the 06z suite yet which came in pretty robust (pending euro in a few minutes). But even most of the cruddy solutions were still decent in SE MA at 00z. Anyway, doesn't really change anything in terms of what the storm actually does...hopefully Euro comes back a little in a few min.
  7. ORH_wxman
    I'm really surprised there is no watch in SE MA and RI. I would think 50% confidence in 6+ there is warranted. But I guess this came on so fast that it's leaving everyone a little snakebit and that's been the background tenor of the winter.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Seems like this is going to be an issue on guidance....we're seeing some pretty decent swings for solutions inside of 36 hours.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Euro has a stronger vortmax at 18 hours, but then it is a lot weaker by the time we get to 30-36 hours...that's the key on this run because the heights out ahead of it during those times is actually higher than the 18z run.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Yeah you can really see it at 42 hours...18z was like 995mb and this run is about 1003 or 1004.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Euro looks slightly toned down from 18z....the heights are actually higher out ahead of it, but the vortmax is weaker so the storm isn't bombing as quickly. Should still be a good solution though.
  12. ORH_wxman
    I know.... I was ribbing him on purpose. Classic DIT move.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Wow. Ray is forecasting 2 feet. Spread the word.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Uncle staggering into the house blasted...succumbed to the temptation of tequila well shots for $2 a piece:
  15. ORH_wxman
    Ukie 500/sfc....gonna have to wait a bit longer for the QPF queen maps. But I don't really think you need them....this is a big solution for eastern areas at minimum....and prob back into central SNE as well.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Wow, hi res RGEM looking nothing like the regular one this time.
  17. ORH_wxman
    He;s gonna come back smashed I think....based on the garbage (now somewhat corrupted) plymouth state maps we only get to 36 hours.....it looks zonked at 700mb.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it tries to get a kick east at the last second....but I wouldn't worry about that yet. You actually may end up on a great deform spot if it works out well, so the kick east could help if it's timed right.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Ok that makes a more sense...00z GFS was slightly warmer at the sfc because it was stronger/closer to coast, but I don't think it would be enough to make a huge difference in the clown maps. Yeah Monday's storm nearly whiffed us on this run.
  20. ORH_wxman
    That could be one of the big worries in this one...it could be somewhat like March 7-8 over the interior last year which was a disaster....only this time, it looks like the danger zone is closer to the coast.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Flagged 10 yards for looking at only the clown map before checking other panels....it's prob punishing your area and the CP because it did make the sfc 33-34F in a lot of spots instead of 32F...the snow algorithm will punish that, but it's hogwash.
  22. ORH_wxman
    I don't agree....the 00z run looks better to me.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Wow, a Ji appearance. Good luck on the snow tonight down there...
  24. ORH_wxman
    Agreed...it's classic GFS at the sfc. 900-925mb is like -5C (other models are even a bit colder)....that's gonna be like 26-27F over a place like ORH with dry snow....might be close to 32F though in SE areas like PYM over to EWB. They'll have to watch very closely for a power-threatening paste bomb.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it has a limit for sure. It's not phasing with some other big shortwave diving in or anything (it does have interaction with the lakes shortwave well after it hits us)....
×
×
  • Create New...