ORH_wxman

Seems like this is going to be an issue on guidance....we're seeing some pretty decent swings for solutions inside of 36 hours.

Euro has a stronger vortmax at 18 hours, but then it is a lot weaker by the time we get to 30-36 hours...that's the key on this run because the heights out ahead of it during those times is actually higher than the 18z run.

Yeah you can really see it at 42 hours...18z was like 995mb and this run is about 1003 or 1004.

Euro looks slightly toned down from 18z....the heights are actually higher out ahead of it, but the vortmax is weaker so the storm isn't bombing as quickly. Should still be a good solution though.

I know.... I was ribbing him on purpose. Classic DIT move.

Wow. Ray is forecasting 2 feet. Spread the word.

Uncle staggering into the house blasted...succumbed to the temptation of tequila well shots for $2 a piece:

Ukie 500/sfc....gonna have to wait a bit longer for the QPF queen maps. But I don't really think you need them....this is a big solution for eastern areas at minimum....and prob back into central SNE as well.

Wow, hi res RGEM looking nothing like the regular one this time.

He;s gonna come back smashed I think....based on the garbage (now somewhat corrupted) plymouth state maps we only get to 36 hours.....it looks zonked at 700mb.

Yeah it tries to get a kick east at the last second....but I wouldn't worry about that yet. You actually may end up on a great deform spot if it works out well, so the kick east could help if it's timed right.

Ok that makes a more sense...00z GFS was slightly warmer at the sfc because it was stronger/closer to coast, but I don't think it would be enough to make a huge difference in the clown maps. Yeah Monday's storm nearly whiffed us on this run.

That could be one of the big worries in this one...it could be somewhat like March 7-8 over the interior last year which was a disaster....only this time, it looks like the danger zone is closer to the coast.

Flagged 10 yards for looking at only the clown map before checking other panels....it's prob punishing your area and the CP because it did make the sfc 33-34F in a lot of spots instead of 32F...the snow algorithm will punish that, but it's hogwash.

I don't agree....the 00z run looks better to me.

Wow, a Ji appearance. Good luck on the snow tonight down there...

Agreed...it's classic GFS at the sfc. 900-925mb is like -5C (other models are even a bit colder)....that's gonna be like 26-27F over a place like ORH with dry snow....might be close to 32F though in SE areas like PYM over to EWB. They'll have to watch very closely for a power-threatening paste bomb.

Yeah it has a limit for sure. It's not phasing with some other big shortwave diving in or anything (it does have interaction with the lakes shortwave well after it hits us)....

Def wasn't screwing around with the little meso-vorticity maxima like some of the mesos were....treats it as a normal shortwave.

Wow...GFS not backing down at all.

I think he's talking about the wrong storm...prob March 4th

Pretty amazing how where I am had two big busts in the negative direction in March 2018 and I still ended up with over 40 inches for the month. The March 2nd storm was a big bust....we were supposed to flip to snow and get 5-8/6-10 but instead it took until about 7-8pm to flip and we only got about 1.5 inches. That storm and Mar 21 were awful....but those other two monsters made up for it, lol....but it could have been a legit 60 inch month if those other two didn't fail. Anyways, bit OT there. Despite some of the uglier looking meso runs at 00z, I'm still pretty optimistic on this system. I think there's more mechanisms to move this a bit NW versus east.

Yeah it's still a good storm, but it's not the 18z run...the warning criteria area def is smaller this time....it's not as paltry as the NAM at all though. For the QPF queens.....

I don't think it will end up well east like earlier runs....but I could see the 18z nuke idea being overdone. But I don't really see this becoming a 1-3" scraper for SE MA like we saw yesterday. I think we've locked in the idea of a further west shortwave climbing the east side of the longwave trough....but the consolidated nuke idea is still in doubt.

RGEM is a mess too...18z had a nuking consolidated low....this is like 12-14mb weaker and not consolidated. It's still a pretty good snowstorm, but not like 18z. Clearly, the mesos are not feeling the consolidated idea on the 00z run. It will be interesting to see what the global models do.