ORH_wxman

This is pretty amazing....not even in the best stuff yet, but its gotta be 2-3"/hr.

18 spot there? They have to be 10 already....

We'll have to see how much of that batch a little further west near LI is real vs a little extra bright banding because of sleet...but it may tickle those further west than the leading band near Ginxy:

Gotta be the most intense CCB fronto bands we've seen since Feb '13....its obviously a lot faster moving and doesn't cover as wide an area, but that's really impressive stuff.

We need Ginxy to give us an update....or that guy NECT in Windham county to his north....those are incredible echoes and they are snow...wonder if they are strutting 5/hr there:

Zoomed in

Here comes all hell about to break loose for central and eastern areas:

Really healthy mean:

Steady stuff into SNE, but you can see we have a ways to go before the real goods get here in S NJ and Delmarva area.

That's gonna be pretty heavy by 2am though the worst there might be a little after that.

It was not an easy forecast at all. We can often talk about some of the flags in hindsight but there were plenty of reasons it could have gone bigger too. We've seen systems where mesos struggle and the globals are able to better handle the system without getting confused by smaller vort maxes. Heck, even the euro had a very strong sig over E MA as late as 18z on Friday...not even 12 hours before the storm started. Its not easy to ignore that type of guidance. It's a lot easier to toss guidance when we're dealing with stuff like CAD, but when the Euro says we have to go decently big 12 hours before the storm, it's not easy when the mesos are skeptical.

Some nice OES streamers in SE MA right now.

Eyeballing between 2 and 3 inches.

There's actually pretty good lower level inflow right now. 900-925 out of the east at like 30 knots. It's only like 10 knots at 850 so that will prevent much more intense banding but the lower level inflow should keep some pretty nice moderate snows for several hours.

Pretty good band rotating up to N shore now....its back through here as well in Holliston and flakes are really good now. Coming down nicely....

Flakes just dramatically improved. Eyeballing close to an inch so far.

Coming down pretty hard now. Snowgrowth isn't great but it's reduced vis to like half mile.

Snowing steadily with pretty decent band overhead. Hopefully we can pick up 2-3 inches before this is done by noontime.

Bright banding is sleet.

Just got back in from being out and what an ugly set of runs.....buuuut, still gotta watch that area moving into NYC. Guidance has been fizzling that too quickly all night...it actually may end up benefitting CT more than anywhere.

18z GFS tickled east of 12z...though the low is actually better organized so it might actually prodce better bading in SE MA than a 12z solution would. Kind of looks like the 12z Euro now.

RGEM looked better in a similar manner that the 18z NAM did...a little more consolidated. QPF wasn't much change except, again like the 18z NAM, it increased noticeably in SE MA in that PYM to EWB corridor and the Cape.

Yes...it wasn't as strong on the euro but it had it.

Yeah I was talking about it a few posts above...how it looks really good, but it doesn't necessarily mean anything yet. Though I find it interesting the lack of convection to the east of the Delmarva/VA which is where I'll keep looking.

FWIW, here's the WV loop.....