ORH_wxman

Yep....lol. Resident world champion accordion man is from Cumberland. Parts of the town are over 500 feet actually. Yeah its quite variable in elevation there. Obviously you gotta find the best availability for places to live....but anything up near Diamond Hill park is going to be pretty good. If you go to Woonsocket, you actually probably want to be on the southwest side of town near 146.

Welcome Fozz! Depending on exactly where in the Woonsocket/Cumberland area you are, you can expect between lows 40s and low 50s for snowfall average. I've circled the area those towns cover...the far SE side of Cumberland can be in the low 40s. You want to be north of 295 in Cumberland where the better hills are, and the extra latitude away from the bay def helps too...the area I circled in white is where you'll be in the 50"+ seasonal average range:

Yeah I would have changed it to 2021-2025 if I could have voted again a couple years later.

PIOMAS gives you a chance this year. Cryosat2 doesn't look very promising...pretty big differences this season in the two.

Looks like Cryosat2 is done scanning for the season....based on the prelim results this year, it looks like the Beaufort, Chukchi, and western ESS are thicker than last year, but the eastern ESS and parts of Laptev are thinner.

Yeah they work well as long as you have a baffle underneath there. Also make sure they are far enough away from branches and other launching points. Those SOBs were actually launching from a tree trunk when I first put them up so I had to move them further away. The green feeder that the deer was eating out of is awesome. Don't even need a baffle for it...since it closes when too much weight is put on the perch. Of course, the deer doesn't need to step on the perch like a squirrel does so it manages to scarf a bunch of my seed, lol.

I was wondering where the hell all my bird seed was going...it's been crazy active wth the birds but I didn't think it was enough to explain how fast the seed was going down....just caught the culprit. Time to get the shotgun:

The turkeys are out of control here too. Have had a flock of about 15-20 of them descending on the yard and fallen bird seed from the feeders at least 4 or 5 times in the past couple weeks...and those are only the times I noticed. Prob did it many more times when I wasn't home or not looking outside. Had 2 deer sightings as well. I tend to see them more in the fall though.

Dendrite's last sentence is one that a few of us have talked about before...powderfreak included....but it is good that he brings it up again because it's really important for fast snow melt. It's an important piece of information to have when we hear things like "rains to Maine, shut down the ski resorts". We often mention the magical upper 30s dew points during winter rain events or warm ups...and it because the snow just starts releasing once it hits that temp due to the change in ice crystal structure. Now, sometimes you won't get a lot of melting from a cutter if you only warm sector for a few hours and have been very cold preceding it simply because the interior of the snow pack hasn't had enough time to warm up to drastically affect the ice crystal structure. So you'll get a brief melt of the top few inches and that's it and we'll say "wow we didn't really lose that much pack". But if that same cutter occurs after several days of like 45-50 high temps with dew points in the 30s, then it will do a ton more damage to the pack since the interior temperature of the pack has risen significantly prior to the cutter. This is also why sometimes those radiational cooling spots can hold pack well even if they warm sector around the same time as a hilltop during a cutter...at night time leading up to the cutter, maybe they were radiating down to like 5F while the hilltops were only getting to 20-25F. So the temperature of the snow pack down in those basins is colder. We sometimes think of those areas as only holding pack longer due to not losing their inversion during a cutter, but I've seen scenarios where the inversion breaks at similar time but they hold on to better snow because of the interior temperature of their snowpack. I actually recall this happening leading up the to January 2008 torch and associated cutter. Nobody in SNE really CAD'd at all during that but leading up to the cutter was like 3 or 4 days of torch temps. Total furnace. I was driving eastward a day or two after it ended and all of the sudden came upon almost full snow cover still in large areas of Sudbury MA after seeing smaller regions with near full cover in Boylston and Shrewsbury...while my hill in N ORH was totally wiped out. I figured finally that these guys kept radiating to like 20F at night in the torch days leading up to the final cutter while I was struggling to get to freezing at night. Anyways, pretty cool stuff.

Oh yeah he loves it. Josh knows his shit too...he is probably exactly how you would want to model yourself as a chaser if you intend to chase high-end damaging winds. He meticulously researches every angle going into a storm. I helped him plan a few back in the day over a decade ago...he would seek opinions on everything from the actual storm to who has been near the chase zone for staging...so that definitely helps in minimizing risk.

Still about another month to go before max volume....but February data is in and we're currently 7th lowest volume on record....between 2013 and 2014 right now. Spring volume is more predictive than extent/area this early, but it's still not nearly as good as area in the month of June. As an example, the highest volume since 2009 in spring was 2015 and that year had poor weather in summer bring it lower than many other years that were lower in the spring. We're not that far above 2012 either, and that year was by far the lowest on record by the time we got to September. Graph courtesy of user wipneus at arctic sea ice forum This is an anomaly graph, not a raw value graph

Yeah this stuff fell so fast and it also didn't have massive ratios....they were good, maybe 15 to 1, but not jspin or LES ratios. It really didn't compact until the snow was almost stopped...and even then, it took a good hour to really get noticeable. I had the snow stick stuck in the same spot the entire time once I went out to start cleaning up and it didn't dip below 16" until maybe 9-930am.

Right before this, it was also in Winthrop, but it was at least further north more on land and not at a treatment plant in the middle of the atlantic ocean.

Yeah and there's even spots in Cumberland that get over 500 feet I think....really variable town...but most live down in the 100-250 foot range

Did you tell them you are up on a 350 foot hill? That will matter too in a storm like this where you probably were closer to 30F instead of 31-32F like it might be down near the blackstone river.

Correct....

Red marks the spot....

This map looks very similar to a lot of short term mesoscale guidance yesterday....they did very well once inside of about 18 hours.

Almost 17 inches in Holliston

If you start on this page, I post a radar shot probably every 10-15 min for the next 3-4 pages. You can see the progression. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52144-the-little-storm-that-could-march-34/?page=13

Back edge is hauling along....prob through ORH before 12z.

BOS is in for a fun couple hours

Looks like the band is starting pivot now a bit

Scooter has mentioned they seem warm recently....I would say 34F is def a little suspicious given the snow rate right now and then looking at this mesonet map

You're def close to ground zero in Killingly area there...the absolute max may be a little further east or northeast, but man, you'll be close. It's been going to town there on radar with still a couple hours to go of really good stuff.