ORH_wxman

ORH is in a bad spot for getting big heat...SNE typically gets our best heat advection on like W or WSW flow...but for ORH that isn't a good downslope direction....you really want like NW flow. So it's better if the heat comes over the top through Canada and upstate NY which happens less frequently. Unless you have a downslope or compression aspect to the air, it's really hard to exceed 95F at 1000 feet. CAR is only like 400 feet, so on the right setup, they can bake a little higher.

Yes, most likely....we've already seen some slowing the last few days. I'm not sure this year will be able to keep pace with 2012 going forward with that pattern. But we'll see.

Yeah BOS has a shot...especially with the ASOS running too warm.

95F is a big number to beat for ORH....they've only exceed 94F twice since that 1991 outbreak. In back to back years in 2010 and 2011.

I remember a brutal BDF, I think in late June 1994 it was....went to like 63F type stuff and you could smell the stink of seaweed all the way back to where I was in ORH. Pretty cool though to smell it so easily that far inland.

My Dad worked there for about 7-8 years....so we visited him. The worst part about that summer climate is that the high dewpoints don't usually produce rain or clouds. It's all low level moisture from the gulf trapped below a hellacious cap so you get blazing sunshine with 84F dewpoints but not a drop of rain.

I remember regularly experiencing 100/84 in Dubai along the Persian Gulf. When the dew would drop to like 77F, you'd get 106F.

Those Euro dews are being tossed all the way back into the gulf of mexico.

What a horrible spot. I remember when they changed it a few years back. It used to be to the left of the "Worcester regional airport" text on that shot.

It's going to be hot either way later this week and weekend. So forecasts of big heat are unlikely to get negative backlash if it underperforms. In Tip's scenario of busting...89/73 type day...it's still nasty and oppressive out. Mostly only the nerds like us will notice or care that the 98-100F turned into 90. Luckily, BOS is running warm right now so they might pull a 96F out of a "real" 93F day.

The Barry totals were definitely a big bust. That's good though...obviously less flooding than expected. Kind of the opposite of what happened in Harvey when the totals were more than forecast.

Here's an animation comparing 2019 to 2012 on this date. I think the key to getting a new record is clearly going to be the Laptev/ESS side of the ice. The CAA are Atlantic side of the CAB are running way behind 2012 and those are going to be problems in sustaining the big losses. Click to animate....

It's really not that hard...in the summer, you apply a discount to Kevin's numbers like we do in the winter. When he says dews near 70....he really means like low 60s with only the davis stations in a mulch garden reading near 70. When he says temps near 90, he really means BDL getting to like 87 and everyone else is 83 and ORH is 79. In the winter, we usually know his 4-8" forecasts usually mean 3-5" with a few lollis to 6"+ and when he says a foot, it's really 6-10" with a lolli to 12 in a lucky band.

I'm guessing all time record highs.

Actually I just found it: http://www.city-data.com/forum/city-vs-city/668385-dry-heat-vs-humid-heat.html

I think someone posted a city data forum poll about it years ago and it showed about 70% prefer dry heat over humid heat.

Oppressive heat and humidity for mid afternoon on July 9th

This one is for powderfreak for BTV....you have to go back to the pre-2010 days or so when they didn't run warm....but the really noticeable furnace there started around 2013 or so...and seems to just get slowly worse each year.

Haha....that's what I remember...it was like on a local swamp within the airport grounds.

BED def has a step increase around 2016 though...something noticeable changed there in the analysis. The more recent increase is sloped...but the initial degree or two was a step change.

Yeah some local construction on the airfield could do it too...an extreme case of that was SEA a few years back. It's prob either construction or a movement of the ASOS station on the grounds. The gradual slope might point more toward construction or perhaps some newer mesonet sites included in the analysis that are running pretty cold. For a site movement, I'd expect a sharp step increase or decrease.

Anecdotally I had noticed OWD wasn't putting up some of the really good lows that they usually do the past winter or two. Wonder if they moved the ASOS location slightly on the airport ground? That may have affected it. I remember years ago seeing where the ASOS station was there and it almost looked like a local ditch on the airport itself.

I thought it was most obvious in winter time. But yeah, the onshore flow is pretty telling too in the warm season. They should be running colder than a lot of stations in months like June.

I don't know where Brian gets multiple years worth of the output, but here's the last 52 weeks. This matches with the BOS nosedive later last summer and it has basically stayed there since late autumn edit" See Brian just posted the multiple years above

I don't hope for catastrophic warming. But a record low extent makes it a more interesting season to track. I don't think there is some massive catastrophe that happens either if we break a record min. It didn't happen in 2012. We actually ended up rebounding in a big way the following season. Anyways, 2019 is off to a strong start in July so if we can build a couple hundred thousand lead on 2012, then we may have a chance. 2012's losses are so breathtaking later in the month and early August that we'll need to build up some more momentum. June didn't quite do the trick but if early July is hostile enough, maybe it can make up for it.