ORH_wxman

I was referring to the 100+ calls. Wasn't calling out MOS specifically. Just replying to the narrative of 100+.

We would call that a bust in the winter for sure. Even though it's still brutal cold. How many times have we seen the posts "darn, we didn't decouple so temps never made it down to -10"

The BOS 34F winter reference with snow was when it was like 30-32 everywhere else.... Obviously nobody else really cares about this stuff outside our forum but it's probably worth mentioning if BOS is approaching daily records. We pulled out the MADIS plots a couple weeks ago. I recall actually that BED was drifting too recently. Though the BOS drift started first.

Nobody's denying that. But you've seen the BOS shift on the MADIS plots starting back in winter. It's pretty obvious to me they are a couple degrees warm on average. Depending on wind direction, the difference can either be more or less noticeable. On a well mixed west wind, its less noticeable because places like BED will furnace, but in calmer conditions or even in snowstorms, it was really obvious.

Really annoying. They stick out like a sore thumb on the sfc plots. They are 10F warmer than ORH right now and 4F warmer than PVD this morning.

This year is also **

**

BOS had a 97F*

Took all day but ORH finally got first 90F of season.

Yep. Threadex isn't very useful in Boston because of the huge difference in Logan vs the previous site. It was amazing that Feb 2015 nearly beat Feb 1934 despite the different location. If it had been the same, it definitely would have been a record like we saw at BDL and ORH. The 100F days are also affected. Harder to get at Logan of course than the previous site.

I mentioned before that Atlantic and CAA may prevent us from getting a new record. Much more ice there this year than 2012. But we still have a chance if ESS/Laptev can melt back far enough. We're tied for area right now. 2012 has some epic losses in early August though which is why I'm still a bit skeptical in addition to just looking at the individual regional concentration maps.

Yeah he misses the point.....every....single....time. It's not that the davis stations in mulch beds are inaccurate, it's that our dewpoint scales for comfort have never been calibrated to the davis mulch dew points. When the "unofficial" tables were put out by meteorologists on TV decades ago and in text books, they were using the 55F dewpoint as comfortable based on airport obs since we didn't have a dense network of davis stations on someone's lawn. If they had used only mulch davis stations when they wrote those tables for comfort, they would have said 63F is pretty comfortable. This is the point he misses every time. It's also why we are not impressed in a severe wx setup when Tolland Davis stations say the dewpoint is 72F but BDL says 66F....we want BDL to say 72F which means Tolland mulch beds read 77F or 78F.

Yeah the northeast/Great Lakes was way stronger than other areas....though I remember telling people to be cautious about that because the most influential study used data starting in 1958....that's about the driest decade to start with as you can pick for the northeast US. I recall the increase in heavy event frequency being like 71%, but if you stretch the data back to 1900, the percent increase is cut roughly in half and the western US goes into a negative trend instead of a positive one.

We actually don't have very good confidence on global precipitation trends over the past 100 years....or even past 50 years. Our region of the globe has become wetter on a more specific spacial scale which is what we are probably used to for the narratives....esp the narrative on the big increase in heavy precip events in the eastern US. But this is not uniform globally and many areas have also become drier. We do know total water vapor has increased, but not actual precip.

Like 80% of our temp increases have been from minimum temps and not maximums. We see it in the record temps too...we still set record low maxes fairly regularly, but its much harder to set record low mins.

Still a chance, but pretty low odds IMHO. We'll need some very warm August weather. Atlantic and CAA are a problem further out in time. We'll need the ESS/Laptev sectors to melt toward the pole further than 2012 did to have a chance because the ATL and CAA are going to finish higher than 2012.

With the ASOS running a bit warm, there's a solid chance it gets "set".

I still have it for when NCDC wants it....err, I mean NCEI. They seem to prefer zeros though, so I'd expect they'll be happy with CON's July 2019 data.

I can sense the anger building.

Yeah that was weird...lets see if this works: 1936 98 1937 99 1938 94 1939 96 1940 95 1941 96 1942 93 1943 97 1944 101 1945 96 1946 96 1947 99 1948 100 1949 101 1950 93 1951 92 1952 100 1953 100 1954 95 1955 100 1956 97 1957 98 1958 93 1959 96 1960 93 1961 95 1962 92 1963 98 1964 97 1965 93 1966 97 1967 94 1968 98 1969 95 1970 94 1971 94 1972 94 1973 99 1974 95 1975 102 1976 95 1977 102 1978 99 1979 95 1980 99 1981 99 1982 98 1983 99 1984 98 1985 93 1986 95 1987 96 1988 99 1989 96 1990 93 1991 99 1992 92 1993 99 1994 97 1995 100 1996 91 1997 95 1998 93 1999 98 2000 92 2001 97 2002 101 2003 93 2004 93 2005 97 2006 98 2007 96 2008 95 2009 95 2010 100 2011 103 2012 97 2013 99 2014 93 2015 96 2016 98 2017 95 2018 98

Hottest temps at Logan Airport by year:

Yeah very hard for them to pull 90 at 2,000 feet there. Prob 2-4 times per decade....ORH would prob have to hit 93-94ish.

Do we need to watch for MCS Sat morning? Prob more toward NNE...but that could be a caution flag for the big heat up there if the cloud debris hangs around.

Yep, that's why I said " Unless you have a downslope or compression aspect to the air " that its really hard to hit 95+ at 1,000 feet at this latitude. You need something to cook the air like the chinook out west in Montana/Wyoming or on a more local scale like HIE/BML off the presidentials.

We'll have another 2009 or 2000 summer at some point. These things tend to go in cycles even with an underlying warming trend. We couldn't buy a cold summer for a stretch in the 1940s and early 1950s....save maybe summer of '46. Then there was a stretch in the mid 1980s to early 1990s we couldn't buy a hot summer save for 1988. The Summer of 1949 is still the warmest on record for the state of MA. There's going to be some big dips and peaks on a year to year basis.