ORH_wxman

It's the wave lengths and also strength of the polar jet in winter. The temp gradients increase dramatically in winter so if you end up on a certain side of the PJ for an anomalously long period, then your departure is going to be huge. In summer, everything is more diffuse with weaker temp gradients so it's hard to rack up massive anomalous airmass residence time.

I mentioned before that Atlantic and CAA may prevent us from getting a new record. Much more ice there this year than 2012. But we still have a chance if ESS/Laptev can melt back far enough. We're tied for area right now. 2012 has some epic losses in early August though which is why I'm still a bit skeptical in addition to just looking at the individual regional concentration maps.

Still a chance, but pretty low odds IMHO. We'll need some very warm August weather. Atlantic and CAA are a problem further out in time. We'll need the ESS/Laptev sectors to melt toward the pole further than 2012 did to have a chance because the ATL and CAA are going to finish higher than 2012.

I still have it for when NCDC wants it....err, I mean NCEI. They seem to prefer zeros though, so I'd expect they'll be happy with CON's July 2019 data.

I can sense the anger building.

Yeah that was weird...lets see if this works: 1936 98 1937 99 1938 94 1939 96 1940 95 1941 96 1942 93 1943 97 1944 101 1945 96 1946 96 1947 99 1948 100 1949 101 1950 93 1951 92 1952 100 1953 100 1954 95 1955 100 1956 97 1957 98 1958 93 1959 96 1960 93 1961 95 1962 92 1963 98 1964 97 1965 93 1966 97 1967 94 1968 98 1969 95 1970 94 1971 94 1972 94 1973 99 1974 95 1975 102 1976 95 1977 102 1978 99 1979 95 1980 99 1981 99 1982 98 1983 99 1984 98 1985 93 1986 95 1987 96 1988 99 1989 96 1990 93 1991 99 1992 92 1993 99 1994 97 1995 100 1996 91 1997 95 1998 93 1999 98 2000 92 2001 97 2002 101 2003 93 2004 93 2005 97 2006 98 2007 96 2008 95 2009 95 2010 100 2011 103 2012 97 2013 99 2014 93 2015 96 2016 98 2017 95 2018 98

Hottest temps at Logan Airport by year:

Yeah very hard for them to pull 90 at 2,000 feet there. Prob 2-4 times per decade....ORH would prob have to hit 93-94ish.

Do we need to watch for MCS Sat morning? Prob more toward NNE...but that could be a caution flag for the big heat up there if the cloud debris hangs around.

Yep, that's why I said " Unless you have a downslope or compression aspect to the air " that its really hard to hit 95+ at 1,000 feet at this latitude. You need something to cook the air like the chinook out west in Montana/Wyoming or on a more local scale like HIE/BML off the presidentials.

We'll have another 2009 or 2000 summer at some point. These things tend to go in cycles even with an underlying warming trend. We couldn't buy a cold summer for a stretch in the 1940s and early 1950s....save maybe summer of '46. Then there was a stretch in the mid 1980s to early 1990s we couldn't buy a hot summer save for 1988. The Summer of 1949 is still the warmest on record for the state of MA. There's going to be some big dips and peaks on a year to year basis.

ORH is in a bad spot for getting big heat...SNE typically gets our best heat advection on like W or WSW flow...but for ORH that isn't a good downslope direction....you really want like NW flow. So it's better if the heat comes over the top through Canada and upstate NY which happens less frequently. Unless you have a downslope or compression aspect to the air, it's really hard to exceed 95F at 1000 feet. CAR is only like 400 feet, so on the right setup, they can bake a little higher.

Yes, most likely....we've already seen some slowing the last few days. I'm not sure this year will be able to keep pace with 2012 going forward with that pattern. But we'll see.

Yeah BOS has a shot...especially with the ASOS running too warm.

95F is a big number to beat for ORH....they've only exceed 94F twice since that 1991 outbreak. In back to back years in 2010 and 2011.

I remember a brutal BDF, I think in late June 1994 it was....went to like 63F type stuff and you could smell the stink of seaweed all the way back to where I was in ORH. Pretty cool though to smell it so easily that far inland.

My Dad worked there for about 7-8 years....so we visited him. The worst part about that summer climate is that the high dewpoints don't usually produce rain or clouds. It's all low level moisture from the gulf trapped below a hellacious cap so you get blazing sunshine with 84F dewpoints but not a drop of rain.

I remember regularly experiencing 100/84 in Dubai along the Persian Gulf. When the dew would drop to like 77F, you'd get 106F.

Those Euro dews are being tossed all the way back into the gulf of mexico.

What a horrible spot. I remember when they changed it a few years back. It used to be to the left of the "Worcester regional airport" text on that shot.

It's going to be hot either way later this week and weekend. So forecasts of big heat are unlikely to get negative backlash if it underperforms. In Tip's scenario of busting...89/73 type day...it's still nasty and oppressive out. Mostly only the nerds like us will notice or care that the 98-100F turned into 90. Luckily, BOS is running warm right now so they might pull a 96F out of a "real" 93F day.

The Barry totals were definitely a big bust. That's good though...obviously less flooding than expected. Kind of the opposite of what happened in Harvey when the totals were more than forecast.

Here's an animation comparing 2019 to 2012 on this date. I think the key to getting a new record is clearly going to be the Laptev/ESS side of the ice. The CAA are Atlantic side of the CAB are running way behind 2012 and those are going to be problems in sustaining the big losses. Click to animate....

It's really not that hard...in the summer, you apply a discount to Kevin's numbers like we do in the winter. When he says dews near 70....he really means like low 60s with only the davis stations in a mulch garden reading near 70. When he says temps near 90, he really means BDL getting to like 87 and everyone else is 83 and ORH is 79. In the winter, we usually know his 4-8" forecasts usually mean 3-5" with a few lollis to 6"+ and when he says a foot, it's really 6-10" with a lolli to 12 in a lucky band.

I'm guessing all time record highs.