ORH_wxman

1980s/early 1990s probably skewed some perception too for those of us that remember. They are truly putrid snow years that are unrivaled in the record...that period sticks out like a sore thumb. There were some pretty bad periods between the late 1920s and early 1950s but none of them could match that 1979-1980 though 1991-1992 stretch. So while the prolific snow producing storms since 2000 are certainly note-worthy, they are especially glaring when compared against the backdrop of the 1979-1992 period. It's like "let's take the most prolific 15 or so years and compare them against the worst 15 year stretch...I bet that might make people talk"...for our generation, say those born from the 1970s to early 1980s, we had both periods as really our only experience for SNE winter...and they essentially happened back to back save maybe a brief "shoulder period" in the mid to late 1990s. Its hard to really say what "normal" is too when it comes to New England snow climo. I can spit out the numbers of course...I know them all like the back of my hand....but it's the way we get to those numbers that is the question. We've had so many periods that were seemingly unmatched in the record. The late 1950s through early 1970s produced nary a below average snowfall season in SNE. Esp over the interior...the consistency was incredible. So was the cold. They were much snowier and colder winters than the previous 30 years. Now, after a long period of declining-in-frequency KU events from the 1970s through the 1990s, we all of the sudden see the massive reversal and now the winter spits out a 20" KU like Halloween candy being tossed out to trick our treaters. Btw, I do agree some of the individual storm numbers are somewhat inflated versus 30+ years ago due to measuring technique, but that only explains a smaller portion of the situation. Anyways, everyone is going to have theories and thoughts on the matter, but nothing will be better than another decade of data and then another decade after that to see what happens. I can guarantee none of the literature in the late 1990s and early 2000s saw the snow boon years coming in New England.

Agreed. The increased moisture just is not enough magnitude to explain it. We've had like a 4% increase in WV here since the 1980s. There are other factors...and granted, some could still be related to climate change, but perhaps not as directly.

Well that differential in SSTs was less in 2016...my comment was that why would we expect it to remain there? The gradient is all relative. Is there a reason to expect a hot spot in the central PAC that warms faster than the equatorial PAC on a magnitude that makes the 2016 super Niño less effective? (I.E do we expect the subtropical PAC to continue to warm wayyyy faster than ENSO like we saw between 2013 and 2016? No probably not. At least that is what most of the literature points to. Of course, we should keep in mind that the literature is not very accurate when it come to differential warming. It can do okay when it comes to the global trends but regional tends to get tougher. So maybe it's a new normal...but I am typically skeptical of claims like that and for good reason. They usually revert back closer to the global trendline. The exception may be the polar regions where ee expect some pretty enhanced trends...and even some wildly reversed trends at times like seen in Antarctica. But most of the earth in between seems to ebb and flow with the an underlying warming trend.

The lack of gradient between enso region and the rest of the PAC shouldn't be a new norm unless there is a distinct reason to believe that the rest of the PAC is going to have an underlying warming that is greater in magnitude than the ENSO region. The equatorial cold tongue has been an issue in observations vs climate models but the warm pool to the north of there that has set up off western Mexico and out into the central PAC is a newer phenomenon that is unlikely to remain there relative to the rest of the basin and vs ENSO region in the equatorial PAC. Of course, maybe it will remain...we don't know for sure...just like we didn't know for sure if the monster blocking of 2009-2013 would remain or the positive NAOs of the late 1990s. Odds are though it will pass onward to something different in a relative sense.

That tool on NSIDC uses the 5 day running mean instead of daily values.

IMS is a deferent source than JAXA or NSIDC and it looks like that graph doesn't have any data beyond late July.

Ill take this weather all summer. Maybe give one week of HHH for the beach/lake vacation.

The field as a whole tends to overreact to the most recent events. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, there was a lot of stuff coming out how global warming was causing more +AO/+NAO conditions due to the PJ retreating north and intensifying/enhancing the vortex near the pole. Then by about 2011, the reverse started showing up...Arctic amplification was causing huge NAO blocking and massive "warm Arctic, cold continent" winter patterns and prolonged PV invasions due to "wavy jet" theory. This persisted for a while and now we're starting to see some new narratives like the enhanced subtropical ridging due to Hadley cell expansion, etc. To me, it's mostly flavor of the month. It's not that the theories are wrong, it's just that each variable seems to get too much credit during the seasons where the effects are most noticeable.

2016 looks like it had a lot more easy pickings after 8/10 for losses than this year. If parry stait melts out then that could add some to 2019 but 2016 looked easier:

Why do we think 2019 will act more like 2016 than 2012 after August 10th?

We've fallen 350k behind 2012 on area despite extent still being very close. We're probably going to need a big compaction pattern to keep extent in the running through the end of this month.

12z euro kind of extends the COC for most of next week. That would be pretty sweet.

2017 was decently snowy...though not excessive. But we haven't had a snowy Niño December since 2009. Were kind of due for one even though they are typically not favored. We've gone 3 horrendous Niño Decembers in a row since '09....maybe the excessive blocking we've seen recently will be able to manifest itself early this winter. That's typically a requirement for a snowy Niño December. In La Niña, we often can get away with less blocking in December. Not in El Niño. Of course, it could be warm neutral too. We'd be less reliant on blocking if it was but we'd still want to see it.

Seems like we're favorites for either warm-neutral or weak Niño. Obviously things can change but the subsurface doesn't look overly impressive and the model forecasts seem to agree.

I thought the cool shot was weakening on the models though?

Wow just stepped outside:

What was it last year, white faced hornets inside the house or just outside on the house structure? They are nasty if you disturb them near their nest. Very painful stings too. Might be the most painful I've had. They just aren't as nasty as yellow jackets away from the nest. A yellow jacket will sting you pretty easily away from the nest...it's like they are just happy to be azzholes and sting for the hell of it...most other species of bees, wasps, and hornets wont bother you too much away from the nest.

If you find feral honey bees, you can usually call a local guy to take them off your property for free. Don't pay to have honey bee nest removed if you can help it. If it's bumble bees, no such luck...though I try and not kill bumble bees since they are excellent pollinators but if the nest is too close then you gotta do what you gotta do. Yellow jacket nests I will go out of my way to kill. They are the worst. White faced hornets il fairly indifferent. If they aren't too close, then they won't typically bother you.

Kevin's MADIS graph for predictions vs reality will have violent step changes in March and October every year.

Is the nest closed (I.e. They have a paperish exterior covering the comb cells)? If it is, you need to get down and spray into the opening. Just spraying the outside won't get it done if it's enclosed.

The old ORH site at 600+ feet used to radiate very well. It's one reason that it is so hard for ORH to get record lows...even more than just the usual uphill climb against climate warming. So many record lows are from that site...I think they put up like a -24 or -25 back in the 1943 outbreak and another -20 or two in 1934. When I was a kid, we lived at about 600 feet in ORH somewhat downhill of a ridge and I remember distinctly in the 1994 cold outbreaks that we would hit -20 while he airport would struggle to reach -8 or -10. I think we touched -23 or so on 1/19/94.

If there's another entrance then you'll definitely want to find it. Usually they only have one though. You'll also want to make sure the base of the bowl is flat enough that they can't still go under it. Anyways, it sounds like you are probably already having success if the activity has been reduced significantly. You might be entering the zombie phase of the nest. If you have killed the queen and it's only a few workers left then it's only a matter of time.

Yellow jackets are actually wasps and not bees. The glass bowl trick works on them.

There's a funny little trick you can use for "hole in the ground" nests assuming they are on relatively flat terrain.....you put a clear glass bowl upside down over the top of the nest hole at night when they are all inside. Then the next day they will fly out and be trapped inside the glass dome but because they have been exposed to daylight, they will just fly around inside the confined space and then re-enter the nest and think they just had a failed foraging expedition. They all eventually starve to death over the next few days. It has to be clear though,....if you use a solid dome, they will just dig a new exit through the soil. How weird is that? The clear bowl tricks them into thinking they aren't trapped. I got rid of a big ground nest this way years ago. It's obviously nice because it requires zero toxins.