ORH_wxman

The sea ice argument was the reason given from 2009-2013 but now it obviously doesn't work given the recent +NAO. I've still heard it as relating to the recent -EPOs we've seen. We'll see if that holds up too in the coming decade. Regardless, it would be nice to grab at least a solid month of -NAO in the means (obviously fluctuating is ideal...before Tip makes an angry post about dynamic changes in magnitude)....it's nice not having to rely on the unmanned firehose spraying the right way all the time. A good solid PNA ridge can do the same ala 2015 but those don't seem to lock in place as easily as an NAO block...unless it's 2015 of course, lol.

Lol I just had to get the quotes out there. Classic.

Hey, you got your own regional "whine our way to a jackpot" poster... I think lavarock gives Tauntonblizz a run for his money.

Ocassionally he gets completely unhinged and probably starts throwing furniture in his basement like right before the 1/24/15 storm which was supposed to ruin our blizzard. I thought we might lose him before the March 4th storm this year too but then he tantrumed his way into a jackpot after issuing congrats to dendrite and powderfreak 2 days out.

No I sometimes side with you in the winter when Scooter starts getting cranky about coastal MA's snow prospects and starts taking it out on interior SNE too.

If they are big enough then it can take until you hit about 20F. But typically around here they don't get big enough like that...but it's possible if they get an early start in spring...a year where there's an early warm up and no real hard freezes in April.

Lol. I was just posting about the yellow jackets above. Usually they are done after a hard freeze. Though a lot of light frosts will do a number on their nests even if a few still survive.

Yeah I'll take a hard freeze around 10/10 to kill off the remaining yellow jackets but then give me 65/45 until Veterans Day. Then we can flip the DIT switch to ACATT.

I'm a huge fan of mild Octobers. I have no use for the garbage "highs of 46, low of 27" type airmasses in October. Save those for a month later when they give you highs near 30. Ill take highs in the 60s all the time in October. I'll allow for one or two quick frost/freezes just to remind us that winter isn't too far off but otherwise, I'm all for 65/45.

Here's the DIT seasonal clock:

We had the last GTG on the weekend back in January....we know you had something going on, but it was a good solid crowd.

2nd half of September is when the forces are really becoming equally opposing....always a fun 2-3 weeks between about 9/20 and 10/10. He will be pimping a 70F on 9/23 but at the same time really struggling with the clown range models showing -5C 850 temps over New England in early October....it pulls him like a strong gravitational force. You can start to tell that while on the outside, he is still pimping that 71F dewpoint on 9/23, it doesn't have the same enthusiasm to it that it did a month earlier....it's kind of empty and going through the motions. His eye is really starting to turn to that first cold shot in early October....he's just dying to mention that we may see a few flakes in the high terrain too, but can't quite bring himself to say it yet. Then usually by Columbus Day weekend, the transition is complete. It's pimping highs in the 30s and 40s as normal October weather while scanning for snow chances....references to October 2009 and 2011 start to appear. By Halloween, we're turning every cold shot into a chance for flakes and even some accumulation....November is going to be a November of yore where snowpack supposedly started on 11/10 and never melted until April....perhaps "yore" meaning the ending vestiges of the previous ice age...but that is beside the point. It's gonna happen this year.

Yeah, that high pressure over Lake Ontario screams southwest flow.

The NSIDC data I'm using is from their satellite dataset. Specifcally the SSMI/S satellite. Jaxa and U Bremen use the AMSR2 satellite, which is highest resolution of the two. SSMI/S is useful though because it has a pretty homogeneous dataset going back to 1979. IMS uses both satellite and human augmentation of the data based on visual shots of the ice. Here's the FAQ from MASIE/IMS site: https://nsidc.org/data/masie/masie_faq

Labor Day of Yore?

Even ensembles have the wedge hinted into Thursday

It will be interesting to see if this product stays below 2012....I suspect it will not, but we'll find out in about 2-3 weeks. NSIDC area is now favored to finish 3rd lowest...we're only 90k lower than 2016 now and 2016 loses about 400k in the next week. So this year needs to kick-start again on area loss to stay pace. Extent is still favored to finish 2nd lowest behind 2012 on NSIDC, Ubremen, and Jaxa.

We wedge

Euro says we wedge until next Friday

Yeah I can get that...the rocks should actually be fine as long as they stay relatively white. But if they start getting dirty, then that's gonna move the needle.

I mean, I guess that's definitely better than dark mulch....but I wonder why they couldn't just do grass?

It's also not something that would be readily noticeable on an anecdotel scale....I think the average came out to something like 0.4C too warm on the maxes versus the newer digital thermometers. So you'd probably see it more in the data when plotted out over time. But yeah, your actual location would probably mask any hardware bias because you have a short afternoon before the sun sets.

Yeah, the mins are definitely where it is more noticeable. Even a non-radiator like ORH it shows up since there's no such thing as truly zero radiational cooling on our observation sites. Even ORH radiates a little bit....just less than pretty much everyone else. But ORH airport has had 33 record low max temps since 2000 in the DJFM period. With records since 1947-1948, we would expect an even distribution to be 35 record low max temps. So it's very close on that front. But the 24 record low minimums is significantly below the 35 expected.

I should probably add the caveat "unless the GGEM verifies"....lol. It tries to form a wave along the boundary to the south and give us precip on Monday.