ORH_wxman

If February hadn't been so warm, I probably would have given it an A. That kind of tainted it a bit....but that winter had very strong bookends. Good December and early January and epic March.

When we were at the pre-Xmas GTG that year at Clarke's, I remember we were sitting there at the bar with Scooter and we said "you know, if we didn't know any better, that 12/23 event looks like an ice storm in the making instead of a 55F torching cutter...that just doesn't look like the type of pattern where a storm should cut"....sure enough, the models started backing off the cutter idea within a run or two and it ended up as a pretty good ice event...even into Boston. Then that Xmas storm started gaining legs too once we got closer. Heck, even a couple days out, the Xmas threat was still pretty precarious. I remember some congrats Berkshires/NW CT posts pretty close in.

Avoided it in 2017 which was nice....to go along with Xmas day snowfall. Better chance than recently for avoiding it IMHO given we're going to be neutral ENSO.

Torch is a funny word...the problem I have with it these days it is used too generously so it kind of loses its punch. Torch is used for both +20 type departures and mundane +6 departures.

Give me a torch any day in the 2nd half of October. Avg highs are in the 50s at that point. Either that or give me a deep freeze where snow is possible....none of this "near normal" stuff.

Late October is the perfect time for non-normal wx. Either warm so you get those 65-70F days or cold so you can have a snow chance/first flakes. Normal at the end of October is garbage. Like 50-52F highs and near freezing lows. No thanks.

I'm sure they can....but the big part of the paper was how much the magnitude changed in OHC and with relatively high certainty. With the corrections, their uncertainty goes through the roof, so it gives far less confidence in such a value which was larger than previous estimates....part of the reason the paper was a big deal a the time.

Rain on the doorstep

And yes, Tip is right...what we want doesn't affect the weather one bit. DIT hasn't quite learned this yet after decades on the forum, but I think most understand it. But we tend to delve into the desired outcome when the weather is boring.

I don't "want" 80 in October....I just said I'd take it over 49F highs and scraping frost off my windshield every morning. Luckily we're not getting a lot of 80F in October...maybe 1 day? Ideally, give me a high of 67-68F with lows in the upper 40s...that's nice crisp fall weather and it's easy to be outside in that. I'll take colder weather as soon as it manifests some snow chances. So by Halloween and beyond it's fine to have real cold shots....though for more real snow, T-day is the cutoff. The Halloween-T-day period is usually the "first flakes" novelty and maybe a light accumulating event on car windshields and mulch.

I guess one good cold shot is fine to kill the bugs....but otherwise I have no use for highs of 49F.....give me 70s any day over that....or even a day or two in the low 80s like we've got coming up.

Late next week is gonna suck.....not looking forward to 50s for highs. Would prob be 40s if the OP Euro verifies....hopefully everything get muted as we get closer.

CT is a pretty state for the most part. Back in my blackjack days, I would take 395 down to Foxwoods from ORH all the time...very pretty area eastern CT is...and so is much of the western half too in my travels out there. Biggest problem for the state is that it has fiscally mismanaged itself into a lot of trouble and they are trying to tax their way out of it which drives away businesses and residents. I'm sure they'll turn the tide eventually on that front...they just need to give people a reason to move there again from neighboring states. A renaissance of sorts in economic factors would certainly help.

This is a good post that highlights many of the pitfalls in rushing to conclusions about attribution studies. The study in question in the couple posts above yours is emphasizing Atlantic hurricanes since 1981....well, that is close to a nadir in the AMO and N ATL SSTs. So there's obviously been a steep rise in SSTs since that time in the N ATL basin between 15-40N, but much faster than the global trend due to natural variation. I believe it was also the Landsea et al paper in 2010 that highlighted the technology aspect of both hurricane frequency and intensity. When we accounted for the technology that could "see" storms, their frequency wasn't any different than in the early 20th century and we also likely missed the max intensity even when we could identify them. Most of the literature supports stronger hurricanes in a warmer world, but on the order of about 2-3% increase in max wind intensity per degree F of warmer SST. That's going to be offset by a decline in frequency though (due to more wind sheer...esp closer to the US). The paper was discussing intensity though and not frequency, to be fair on my last point. But the crux of the argument is that there is some credible literature out there that warrants tapping the breaks on the attribution of hurricane intensity/frequency with CC. I understand that "tapping the breaks" is very unpopular amongst the climate change activist crowd, but it's also good science in this case. There are plenty of other attribution studies that don;t need such caution (e.g. heat waves, etc)

There needs to be a reason for people to move back to CT. If they can get better jobs in MA and be taxed even less than CT, then what incentive is there? There isn't, which is why the state population is declining while neighboring states are increasing: https://www.hartfordbusiness.com/article/ct-loses-population-for-fifth-straight-year The one thing that may bring some people back is real estate prices...CT's growth in real estate has lagged behind most states around them ironically due to the people fleeing, so if that keeps up then people may decide buying a cheaper house there is worth the other negatives. But that would only be a temporary injection....the real estate ewould start climbing again, and then you are back to square one....why should people move there?

CT used to be cheap....they had no state income tax as recently as the early 1990s and they had lower corporate taxes. They've now tried to increase their taxes so much that they have driven some big corporations out....Aetna, GE, HQ, etc. You need a huge base of human capital if you want businesses to put up with higher taxes...ala the big cities of the west coast, or a Boston or NYC.

Moved the CT state discussion to the banter thread

We might be north of the front on 10/3....OP had us south of it, but the ensembles have a lot of members with the front south. I agree that Saturday is a day where we toss the MOS numbers as far as we toss a DIT snowfall forecast in winter.

Changes coming on the EPS....the ridge in the GOA gets replaced with a trough after D9-10ish....if that happens, that's a lot colder with these wavelengths.

Lol, yeah he's not fooling anyone. 120 means you almost certainly got something pretty huge....or if you didn't, it means you have an epic pack from a ton of rapid-fire moderately heavy events like '07-'08. Maybe if the button said 80 or 90" instead of 120", we'd believe him.

Kevin seems really forced this morning in the HHH talk....trying to play his summer role, but you can tell his heart just isn't into it like it is earlier in the warm season. The switch to ACATT is about to happen....give it another couple weeks.

BOS will have a better chance than usual because of *

Nice Fozz. You did March skiing last year. Best open secret in New England is March skiing. You'll see crowds in mid December with people skiing down man made icy death ribbons...but then find no lines with 8-10 feet of base and all glades open in March. Sometimes people are funny like that. But taking advantage is great. It's prob why ginxy usually does his Sunday River trip 3rd week of March. Most years I try to get out in March too...though last year I was shut out. Wife was pregnant and with another 3 year old just didn't make it out. But he's gonna be 4 this March and he's going on skis this winter.

I was reading up recently on EEE outbreaks. Apparently there was a big one in Massachusetts in 1955 and LI/south coast in 1970. Good winter incoming using the EEE analog?

Things tend to go in cycles even with the underlying warming. The torchy and relatively snowless Marches circa 2008-2012 have given way to a period of very cold and snowy Marches since 2013. I was looking recently at ORH October temps and we are probably "owed" some more warmth in that month given it has defied the underlying warming trend. The 1970s-1990s were excessively cold compared to the rest of the period