ORH_wxman

For BOS maybe? But even 30% looks like a steep standard. 30% of BOS normal is like 13.5"...we're getting into top 5 worst snowfalls of all time there. For ORH it would be even higher because 30% of ORH normal is like 21 inches which is the all time worst season on record (1954-1955 had 21.2")....for ORH I'd go anything under 65% of normal which is about 45"....for reference, 2001-2002 had 44.4" while 2011-2012 had 39.7" at the airport. Getting under 45" there isn't that easy. Even 2015-2016 couldn't do it. Though 1999-2000 did (sneaky awful ratter that was at 30.2" including a trace in December). Best way to do it is probably standard deviation. One standard deviation in the bad direction will leave you in the 17th percentile which I think is pretty reasonable. For ORH a standard deviation for a season is about 24". So 69 minus 24 leaves me around that magical 45" total that I came up with earlier. For BOS, one standard deviation is about 21.5", so 44 minus 21.5 would be 22.5"....that sounds about right too for a true BOS ratter.

I'd be surprised if there was a big difference during chase season just because of how vast the area is and it's not predictable. But in general there will be a bump toward summer anyway due to it being the vacation season. But I'd be skeptical of big jumps in March or April in Oklahoma or Texas. Other than some chasers who could end up anywhere within 100,000 sq miles, who is going to be out in Witchita Falls on April 3rd? But it is definitely interesting reading about how much more popular chasing has become in the past 15 years.

I think you used that term all the way back on Wright weather. Lol. I remember you saying "that winter was a dead ratter"

Should be able to average under 60$ per night out in that part of the country for motel rooms...you'll see prices below 40 in many towns...though obvioisly that is dependent on how crowded it might be weekday vs weekend, etc. But nowadays when you can do quick searches via internet/phone while on the go, it's pretty easy to find cheap lodging. But probably good to price about $100 or a little more once you include food.

Oh I misread...I thought you were disagreeing with ray that it was a great winter up there...but you were actually agreeing with him that it wasn't a 2001-2002 by saying "it wasn't at all"

??? BTV had their snowiest winter since 2010-2011 and 3rd snowiest January on record? Solidly below average temps up in NNE too I'd say that was a pretty damned good winter there.

December was epic where I was. Though we got Grinched really bad...lol. Before that though we had 26" from those back to back storms and we did have a nice festive 2-4" event on New Year's Eve morning...cleared up a little before sunset and it got absolutely frigid that night. I was pissed about that early January system. I remember we got into heavy snow briefly and I was getting excited for a positive bust but it literally shut off like a faucet after about an inch and then I saw the Patriots playoff game in Foxborough on TV later that afternoon where they had a solid 8-9" and I got pretty grumpy. Lol. February was pretty terrible though. Without 3/31-4/1, I probably rate it a slightly below average winter but not a ratter. It was definitely frustrating though from about mid January until early March. We had a pretty good icing event in mid February though after a few inches of snow on the front end. Prob about a third inch of accretion. It was a decent amount. I went up to Sunday River the next day and they had absolutely epic snow pack up there. Prob 4+ feet on the level once we hit North Waterford to Bethel Maine...huge gradient too, they had bare ground around Portland...they hadn't seen the sustained icing that ORH did the previous day.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vBeGQAvabOE

Trying to rush the cold and snow is a fall tradition on here.

Biggest problem with nailing a forecast here is the NAO is mostly stochastic. We have not been able to forecast it with any skill unlike the PAC.

October has been really nice. Like +1ish...that's about perfect. I got no use for 48F highs...though I know others disagree. But with the kids, it's nice to have 58F instead to go outside. November def not looking torchy...though the best cold will be centered a bit west of us in the early going. Could sneak a wintry threat in there though...esp if we can load a PNA ridge in the 2nd week of the month. Funny, despite the OP GFS, the GFS ensembles wanted to torch us for a few days in the Nov 5-8 range or so. EPS not so much. Both look colder though around 11/10.

Yeah definitely trying too hard. Lol. Anyways, looks seasonably cold in early November on EPS. Probably some snow threats for NNE I'd guess based on that pattern...prob mostly of the upslope/windex type variety but can't rule out something bigger. SNE could see first flakes too in many spots but obviously need a bit more than moist NW flow for that... We start off the month with a western ridge... Ridge breaks down but we are still not warm because of -EPO/-WPO and a semblance of -NAO Then we reload a western PNA ridge at the end of the run:

Same thing every autumn...some are optimistic and others are pessimistic. Pretty soon we'll have a couple meltdowns over missing a 10 day threat on November 20th by those who pretend climo on 11/20 is equal to 1/20. Or if we get a good snow event in November, the pessimists will claim we "wasted" the pattern and will have a ratter when it counts...ignoring 2014-2015, 2012-2013, 2004-2005, etc, etc. The optimists will point out any analog that remotely matches this year and produced a ton of snow. Round and round and round we go. Lol.

Yeah. Wasn't a great storm though for CNE...down to about N MA where it was decent but just a run of the mill 7 to 9 incher.

ORH had their coldest November day on record last year and it occurred on Tday which was 8 days before the end of the month. Their high of 16F obliterated the old record low max for the month which had previously been 20F on 11/30/58

The black and white rgem maps have the more uncommon 1000-700 thickness line (and I think the regional NAM map too on ewall)...which is actually better than both 850 temps and the 540 line on 1000-500 thickness maps. You want the 2840m line on the 1000-700 thickness.

This is true but these parameters are also not found on most sites. I'm assuming he's asking for a quick judgment call based on the more common 850 temps and 540 thickness line that shows up on the surface precip maps.

That's a tough one...it really depends on the type of airmass. If it's near isothermal then you would prefer 850 but in situations where the cold is shallow, then 540 would be more accurate. Obviously the best case is to just look at soundings but I get wanting to make a quick judgement based on a map and not finding a sounding.

Gonna get a lot more too coming up in multiple shots. Great early season pattern out there.

True on the arctic outbreaks in Denver during fall....but that 2014 cold outbreak was epic and nothing really normal about it. That tied Denver's 2nd coldest November temperature on record....and it occurred on 11/13!!! The only colder temp in the month of November on record there was Nov 29, 1877. Probably froze some Rockey Mountain locusts and oxen.

That epic band in that storm

That's because there were two snow events...an October rarity. 10/15-16 and 10/18. 2011 also had two events. A little teaser on 10/27/11 two days before the big one.

Euro whiffed on the phase next week so it's actually pretty chilly on Halloween with high pressure over N maine. That's prob a good scenario...avoid the rain for trick or treating but also avoid the nasty CAA winds that GFS would have.

Yes, the Euro seasonal actually did quite well with the PAC pattern....it had the +PNA connecting into the -EPO which is a very bullish cold signal, but for some reason it had temps mostly above normal with maybe an area of near normal in the upper plains/lakes.

No, I'm east in northern Holliston...still on the edge of the hills though as this part of town is 350-410 feet. We've prob had an extra 2-3 days out of the 50s vs ORH airport.